Parker's prediction: Florida has controlled the pace for most of the series, even with Edmonton managing to steal two games. Expect the Panthers to clamp down defensively in a tight, low-scoring finale as they secure back-to-back Stanley Cup titles tonight.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The Florida Panthers welcome the Edmonton Oilers to Amerant Bank Arena for Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final on Tuesday, June 17. With a chance to clinch their second straight title on home ice, the Panthers are poised to finish the job.
My top Oilers vs. Panthers predictions and NHL picks point to a low-scoring affair, with Florida sealing the series and hoisting the Cup once again.
The Oilers haven’t topped the Cats in regulation during the series, and two of Florida’s three wins have been convincing. Edmonton trails Florida in goals, expected goals, Corsi For percentage, and high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5.
With Florida’s superior goaltending plus having the last-change advantage in Game 6 on home ice, I don’t see Edmonton forcing a game 7 on the defending champs.
Moneyline prediction: Panthers will win (-150 at Sports Interaction)
My Oilers vs Panthers pick: Under 6.5 (-120 at Sports Interaction)
Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final was a low-event bout with just 28 shots and 2.9 expected goals at 5-on-5. While the entire series has resulted in high-scoring games with an average of 7.8 goals per, I’m anticipating another low-event contest with a low-scoring finish in Game 6.
The Florida Panthers have limited the Edmonton Oilers to just nine goals at 5-on-5 through five games, with star goalie Sergei Bobrovsky posting a sterling .931 save percentage. Florida has also been sound defensively on home ice throughout the postseason with just 2.4 xGA per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and 2.67 allowed per game.
As highlighted, Edmonton hasn’t generated consistent offense at 5-on-5, and the Oilers also haven’t cooled the Cats while shorthanded. Florida has seven power-play goals during the series, with Edmonton sporting an unsustainably low 69.9 penalty-kill percentage.
The Oilers have also averaged 7:01 of shorthanded time per game during the final compared to just 4:44 through the first three rounds. So, not only is Edmonton eyeing statistical correction to its PK%, the Oil are also likely to be spending less time shorthanded.
I expect the majority of Game 6 to be played at 5-on-5 with the clock churning and both teams playing extra conservatively.
Panthers moneyline
Under 6.5
Matthew Tkachuk 3+ shots on goal
The Oilers haven’t had a true answer for the Panthers, trailing for an average of 27:35 and leading for just 4:38 per.
There’s potential for the Oilers to receive improved play in goal from Stuart Skinner because his .860 SV% and 4.20 GAA are unsustainably poor marks, but the Cats have also received high-end play from Bobrovsky.
It’s been a clinic from the Florida star, who’s won 11 of his past 15 games with a tidy .925 SV%, 1.98 GAA, and 17.08 goals saved above expected.
Panthers winger Matthew Tkachuk is sporting a dominant 61.8 CF% at 5-on-5 and has recorded three or more shots in three of the five games.
I also value Tkachuk only hitting the net with 12 of his 31 attempts (38.7%) because he converted 49.2% of his attempts into shots during the regular season. Additionally, his 7.3 shots and 18.86 attempts per 60 minutes in the final are way above his respective 5.69 and 15.17 marks through the first three rounds of the postseason.
Looking to bet on some NHL Playoffs action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors, and get a 125% bonus on your first deposit (up to $250)!
*Not available in Ontario. 19+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Florida Panthers have covered the puck line in 52 of their last 107 games (+8.65 Units / 6% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.