Parker's prediction: The Oilers will fire away in a must-win Game 4, but Sergei Bobrovsky won't go down without a fight.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals resumes when the Florida Panthers play host to the Edmonton Oilers tonight.
My Oilers vs. Panthers predictions zero in on Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s primed for a busy night between the pipes.
Find out more in my NHL picks for Thursday, June 12.
Puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET from Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, with the game airing on Sportsnet and TNT.
The Oilers may only be down 2-1 in the series, but Game 4 is about as close to do-or-die as it gets — they’ll need to win three of the next four to claim the Stanley Cup.
Florida’s blowout win in Game 3 has Edmonton listed as a road underdog, but I’ve been expecting a tight, back-and-forth series from the start.
Look for the Oilers to punch back and send this series back to Rogers Place all tied up.
Moneyline prediction: Oilers will win (+125 at Sports Interaction)
My Oilers vs Panthers pick: Sergei Bobrovsky Over 26.5 saves (-115 at Sports Interaction)
Combine the Edmonton Oilers generating consistent shooting opportunities through the first three games of the Stanley Cup Final with Florida Panthers star Sergei Bobrovsky stringing together a sterling 12-game stretch, and I can’t look past this 26.5 saves total in Game 4.
So, it’s back to the well, as they say.
There will be a pushback from Edmonton on Thursday night, and the Oil have already registered 60.64 attempts and 32.96 shots per 60 minutes to start the series.
Additionally, I also value Edmonton’s fast starts, with the Oilers recording double-digit shots in each of the three first periods for an average of 12.7.
The eye test has also revealed the Oilers are capable of attacking off the rush and have made a point to funnel shots from the perimeter when set up in the offensive zone.
Shot volume from Edmonton is the key because Bobrovsky will take care of the rest.
He’s up to a .928 save percentage with 3.76 goals saved above expected through the first three games, and he’s won nine of his past 12 starts with respective .938 and 17.49 marks.
Finally, Bobrovsky has posted a .952 SV% with 7.94 GSAx through the five home games during the heater.
Oilers moneyline
Under 6.5
Leon Draisaitl 3+ shots
The Oilers let Game 3 slip away — big time — but they’ve consistently bounced back throughout the postseason, and there’s been an overreaction in the moneyline odds with Edmonton trading at +125 at Sports Interaction.
This is still a coinflip series, and Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will have their say in Game 4.
Turning to the Under 6.5, I’d expect both head coaches to be calling for more disciplined play and fewer trips to the penalty box. There have only been 12 goals at 5-on-5 through the first three games compared to eight power-play tallies, one shorthanded goal, and an Oilers goal scored with the goalie pulled.
With the final leg of the same-game parlay, Draisaitl was held without a shot or attempt in Game 3 after piling up eight shots on 15 attempts through the first two contests. Plus, he ranks in the 98th percentile of forwards in shots on goal during the postseason.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Edmonton Oilers have hit the Under in 29 of their last 54 away games (+3.40 Units / 6% ROI), and the Florida Panthers have hit the Under in 28 of their last 52 games at home (+2.75 Units / 5% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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