Parker's prediction: Edmonton has fired away through the Stanley Cup Final thus far, and Sergei Bobrovsky will see enough rubber to eclipse his save total.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
Double-overtime heroics from Brad Marchand knotted the Stanley Cup Final up at one game apiece, and action will resume tonight at Amerant Bank Arena at 8 p.m. ET with the Edmonton Oilers in town.
Edmonton needs to set the tone in Game 3, and my Oilers vs. Panthers predictions expect a busy night for Sergei Bobrovsky.
Find out more in my NHL picks for June 9.
The Florida Panthers are the betting favorite and have been the slightly better possession team at 5-on-5 with a 53.1 Corsi For percentage. They’ve also tightened up defensively on home ice with just 2.57 goals against per home game with an 87.0% PK.
I think the Cats batten down the defensive hatches to take a 2-1 series lead with a low-scoring Game 3 win.
Prediction: Panthers to win
My Oilers vs Panthers pick: Sergei Bobrovsky Over 25.5 saves (-118 at Sports Interaction)
Despite letting in a couple of softies, Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky’s numbers have been excellent through two road games, and he’s made 33 and 28 saves in regulation. As a result, I’m still not sure why his saves total isn’t higher.
While the move to Amerant Bank Arena favors the Cats, there’s no evidence to suggest this Florida lineup can completely contain the Edmonton Oilers through the first two games of the series.
In fact, if anything, Edmonton has been just as good on the highway as on home ice during the postseason since falling behind 0-2 to the Kings in the opening round. The Oilers are 6-1 with an average of 31.9 shots per game and have won the 5-on-5 shot share at 57% after the slow start on the road, after all.
Returning to Bobrovsky, he’s posted a solid .913 save percentage with 2.64 goals saved above expected to start the Stanley Cup Final, and he’s now sporting respective .935 and 16.36 marks during an active 8-3 run.
Plus, no one should be surprised if we see a vintage game from Goalie Bob, where he’s nearly unbeatable.
Under 6.5
Sam Reinhart anytime goalscorer
Sam Reinhart 3+ shots
I’m anticipating the high-scoring start to the Stanley Cup Final to flip with the switch in venue. There have only been nine 5-on-5 goals through the first two games, and I’m also expecting to see fewer penalties called after there were 14 infractions in Game 2.
More 5-on-5 play will lead to fewer high-end scoring opportunities, and both teams have trended to the Under.
Panthers star winger Sam Reinhart has been limited to a single goal and a 4.2 shooting percentage across his past nine games despite generating 3.04 individual goals on 24 shots and 12 high-danger scoring chances.
Reinhart has also recorded nine shots on 16 attempts through the first two games of the series, and his 8.0 postseason shooting percentage is way below his 18.3% mark during the regular season and 12.3 SH% during the Stanley Cup run last spring.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
The Panthers have cashed the Under in 29 of their last 52 games at home (+4.95 units / 9% ROI), and the Oilers have done so in 30 of their last 54 away games (+5.60 units / 10% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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