An uninspired performance by the Edmonton Oilers in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup final means the Florida Panthers have a chance to win their second-straight Cup on their home ice in Game 6 on Tuesday.
The Oilers will be facing elimination against the Panthers for the second-straight season and will need a Herculean effort on Tuesday to force a Game 7 back in Edmonton.
Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for Game 6.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Puck Line
Moneyline
Total
Carter Verhaeghe has just seven goals in the playoffs but he's been creating more chances than you'd think, sporting an expected goals of 9.2, the same mark as Connor McDavid and second overall in the postseason behind only Sam Bennett. Now, with his odds set at +240, he's in a great buy-low spot in a potential Cup-clinching Game 6.
I could sit here and write about how close this series has been from an advanced metrics perspective and how the Oilers actually have an edge in things like expected goals and high-danger scoring chances created, but all of those statistics can be thrown out the window when a team can't get a goaltender to stop a puck.
Stuart Skinner caught fire for the Oilers in the second and third round of the playoffs, but hasn't shown up in the Stanley Cup Final. Edmonton looked to Calvin Pickard to try to provide a much needed spark for them in Game 5, but that plan didn't work either. Now, they're stuck between two goalies with little trust in either. As a whole, the Oilers have stopped just 85.98% of shots on goal in this series.
A save percentage like that simply isn't going to get the job done against the defending champs, a team with virtually no weakness. Goaltending is going to cost the Oilers a Stanley Cup once again and I'm willing to bet the series ends in Sunrise on Tuesday night.
Pick: Panthers -146 via FanDuel
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.
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