The Stanley Cup Final has lived up to expectations and then some through the first two games of the series.
The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers have exchanged haymakers back and forth in both games, with each going to overtime and each team ending on the right side of the final score. Now, the series heads to Florida for a pivotal Game 3 on Monday night.
Let's take a look at the odds and my best bets for Monday night's showdown.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Puck Line
Moneyline
Total
You're probably as surprised as I was to find out that Evan Bouchard, a defenseman for the Oilers, has racked up 15 (!!) shots on goal so far in this series, recording seven in Game 1 and then eight in Game 2. The Oilers' offensive game plan clearly involves getting their defenseman involved in the offensive zone, and Bouchard has benefited from it. Let's bet on this trend to continue in Game 3. All we need is for him to record three shots on goal in Game 3 for this bet to cash at plus-money.
This series has been just as close as the scoreboard has shown in each of the first two games. All you need for proof of that is to look at the 5-on-5 expected goal differential, which sits at +0.01 in favor of the Oilers. The Oilers sit at 7.03 and the Panthers sit at 7.02.
At this point, it may just be a smart strategy to bet on whichever team is the underdog in any given game in this series, as this has truly proven to be a coin flip matchup. The Oilers have had more of an advantage on special teams. When you include all strengths, they have an expected goal differential of +0.76 per 60 minutes.
Edmonton needs Stuart Skinner to be better in between the pipes in Game 3 to overcome the fact that the Panthers will be on their home ice, but I still think the Oilers are the side to bet at +120.
Pick: Oilers +120 via DraftKings
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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.
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