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NFL Thanksgiving
Last Updated: November 18, 2024 3:54 PM EST • 2 min 50 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
Teams at either end of the Stanley Cup odds spectrum clash at the Bell Centre on Monday when the Edmonton Oilers face the Montreal Canadiens. The puck drops at 7:30 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
The Oilers, entering the contest as prohibitive -260 favorites, have won three of their last four games and seven of 11. The Canadiens have won two of their last three after losing six straight.
Our Oilers vs. Canadiens prediction is banking on the visitors to continue a recent trend that has seen them score 17 goals in the last four games. Plus, we provide a Connor McDavid prop pick.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -160 via Betway | Implied probability: 38.46%
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The Oilers have created chances at will for most of the season but are finally, albeit gradually, starting to get their just desserts. They have the third-most expected goals (44.78) but the third-worst goals for above expected (-11.78).
While it’s taking longer than expected, the contrast between those stats is becoming less severe. The Oilers scored three goals on 2.58 expected goals in Toronto on Saturday, netted three times on 3.21 expected goals against Nashville on Thursday, and lit the lamp four times on 4.15 expected goals against the New York Islanders on Nov. 12.
If that almost one-to-one trend continues against the Canadiens, I expect to see them score at least four.
Their recent uptick in offensive production is mostly due to McDavid, who has tallied 11 points (four goals and seven assists) in the last four games.
His partner in crime, Leon Draisaitl, has chipped in with eight points (four goals and four assists) during the same stretch. He also scored the equalizer in Toronto with 1:29 remaining in the third period.
Plus, the Oilers’ power play has scored a goal in three of the last four tilts.
Don’t let the Canadiens’ recent defensive improvements confuse the matter. Montreal is tied with the Anaheim Ducks for allowing the fifth-most goals per game on home ice (3.56).
They also allow the most goals per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (3.53). While the Oilers scored seven against the Vancouver Canucks recently, they’re due for another explosive offensive performance.
And I don’t see Montreal’s defense or goaltending holding up well for this one.
Prior to the last two games, Sam Montembeault allowed at least four goals in three straight and four of six. A winning $10 bet will profit $6. The steep odds and lower profit margin are why this is a three-star play.
NHL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +105 via Betway | Implied probability: 48.78%
I’m sticking with the hottest hand for this prop. The price for any McDavid prop entering Monday’s game against the Canadiens is about as short as Danny DeVito, but I feel the +105 odds for scoring a goal offer the best value.
McDavid has scored a goal in four straight games and four of five since he returned from his ankle injury. He’s certainly making up for lost time. And when McDavid is in this irrepressible mood, I jump all over the bandwagon.
A winning $10 bet will yield a $10.50 profit.
Oilers-Canadiens predictions made Monday at 4 p.m. ET.
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