NHL
The Kings allowed 14 goals in two games before scrounging up a 2-0 win against the lowly Flames. Ronald Martinez / Getty Images
Welcome back to the NHL weekend rankings, returning after a three-week Olympic break. Aw, I missed you too.
Of course, those three weeks only contained a handful of NHL games for each team, so in theory our outlook on the league shouldn’t have changed too much. In theory, sure. But this is the real world, where half our job as fans is to overreact to anything and everything.
Advertisement
So today, before we get to the top five and bottom five, let’s first take a moment to pick a few teams and go way overboard based on their first few games back from the Olympic break.
5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are cooked – No argument here, right? They went into the break on a three-game win streak that offered just a smidge of hope that they could get back in the race, but three regulation losses have put an end to that. Now they’re sellers, and they should be selling big. How big? Mirtle weighs in here, and Jonas is already justifiably wondering if they’ll screw it up.
4. The Columbus Blue Jackets were fun while they lasted – No team had worse timing around the Olympic break than the Jackets, who were the hottest team in hockey when the league shut down. Coming out of the break, they’ve lost their first two, including a crucial one against the wild-card Boston Bruins and another in overtime to the New York Islanders. It’s not over by any stretch, but any hopes they could continue to ride their momentum have been quashed.
3. The Buffalo Sabres haven’t missed a beat – At the other end of the momentum spectrum are the Sabres, who were hot going into the break and somehow came out of it looking even better. They’ve started with three straight wins, all on the road and all in regulation, including Saturday’s stomping of the Tampa Bay Lightning. At this point, the playoffs are getting close to a lock and first place in the Atlantic isn’t completely out of the question. This is happening, folks.
2. Wait, isn’t the deadline in a few days? – It’s been a week since the Olympic trade freeze ended, and so far we’ve had exactly one trade of any consequence with the real-thing deadline coming on Friday. If that feels weird, it’s because it is weird. The week before the deadline is usually a lot busier than this.
Advertisement
This time last year, we’d already had the Seth Jones trade. The year before, Chris Tanev had already been moved. The year before that, Timo Meier, Dmitry Orlov, Jake McCabe and Tanner Jeannot had all been dealt with four days to go.
Most of the bigger moves tend to happen in the two or three days before the deadline, which is to say right about now. So there’s still time. But with the Olympics potentially throwing a wrench into the normal workflow, you have to wonder when GMs are going to get cooking. They’re already behind schedule.
1. The Los Angeles Kings are broken – I had them on the list even before yesterday’s news, but Ken Holland’s decision to make a coaching change only reinforces it. Jim Hiller was a popular “first coach fired” pick heading into the season, and while he stuck around long enough for Dean Evason to steal that honor, this change felt inevitable. Having D.J. Smith around as an assistant with recent head coaching experience should make for a smooth transition.
But a transition to what? The Kings looked absolutely awful in their first two games back, giving up 14 goals in a pair of losses that dropped them down to tenth in the West. Ironically, they followed that up with a tidy 2-0 win over the Flames on Saturday, but by that point Holland had reportedly already made his decision.
And it’s hard to argue, given how tenuous the path to a playoff spot looks right now. Remember, Holland already went out and got Artemi Panarin, arguably the biggest name available at this year’s deadline. An extension meant that move wasn’t a one-off rental, but you typically don’t go out and add 34-year-olds unless you’re in win-now mode. And the Kings weren’t winning anywhere near often enough.
We saw the Blue Jackets get a nice new coach bounce this year, and the Sabres somehow managed to get one from a GM change. If the Kings can follow suit, they might be OK as far as the wild-card chase. Do they have a best-case scenario beyond that? Based on the last week, that would be a no. Kings fans are hoping we’re overreacting. I’m not sure we are.
On to this week’s rankings…
The five teams with the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
If you missed it, the Oilers put Andrew Mangiapane on waivers yesterday; we’ll find out if was claimed today. Either way, the move may spell the end of one of the offseason’s weirdest signings, one that seemed destined to work but very much has not. And maybe more importantly, the move will free up some extra flexibility for the Oilers to make a much-needed move.
Advertisement
5. Minnesota Wild (35-16-10, +24 true goals differential*) – Joe Smith got some interesting comments from Bill Guerin in the aftermath of Team USA’s gold medal win, including some of the post-game controversy.
4. Carolina Hurricanes (38-15-6, +37) – Here’s my question: Are they a lock for top seed in the Metro? They came out of the weekend seven points up on the second-place Pittsburgh Penguins, which feels insurmountable with Sidney Crosby missing multiple weeks. The New York Islanders are hanging tough, but would need to continue their recent surge for at least another week or two. It feels like the Hurricanes are home and cooled, which could have some interesting implications for how they play things down the stretch.
3. Dallas Stars (36-14-9, +36) – Eight straight wins, which could become ten with the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames up next. And then comes the big showdown on deadline night: their first game against the Colorado Avalanche since the season’s opening week.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning (38-16-4, +54) – Two things can both be true: We all know they’re not actually going to reacquire Steven Stamkos, and also it would be super cool if they did.
1. Colorado Avalanche (39-10-9, +79) – So at what point, if any, do we start to worry here? On Jan. 3, this team won their tenth straight to move their record to a ridiculous 31-2-7. But since then they’re a very pedestrian 8-8-2. You’d expect them to cool off at some point, if only out of boredom. But we’re coming up on two months of this being a fake .500 team. We have to start taking that seriously soon, right?
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Vegas Golden Knights – We have to figure this Pacific Division thing out.
That day is apparently not today, because we’ve once again got a top five with three Central teams and nobody from the Pacific. If we’re picking the best five teams at any given time, there’s no reason they’d have to be spread out nicely across divisions. But if we’re trying to pick a Cup winner, there’s an argument that what we have now can’t work. Only one of those three Central powerhouses is going to make the conference final. And barring some crossover wild-card weirdness, there’s going to be a Pacific team waiting there for them.
Advertisement
Right now, that team sure seems like it should be the Knights. They’ve spent the entire season doing just about everything other than pull away in a division they should win, but they still hold a comfortable lead. The Ducks, Kings and Kraken all have plenty of flaws, and the Oilers just refuse to look like a true contender. That leaves the Knights, even if it’s by default. Doesn’t it?
The projections page sure thinks so — they have Vegas with the fourth-best Cup odds, ahead of teams like the Stars and Wild. That makes sense when you factor playoff path into the equation, and maybe we should be doing it too. By the end of the season, we probably will be. For now, it would be nice to see a bit more about how the Central shakes out.
The bigger point is that it’s not especially difficult to imagine the Knights being the one that finally finds its top gear down the stretch, and next thing you know we’re two rounds into the playoffs and everyone is saying of course Vegas looks great, we should have all seen this coming. But this is also a team with fewer wins than the Ducks and Mammoth (and tied with the Kraken), and just one more regulation win than the Predators, Flames and Jets. Finally fix the standings so that teams can’t just play for free points in overtime and this season looks different.
In other words, they should be good, but so far, they’re not. Or at least they’re not good often enough, including yesterday’s 5-0 loss to the Penguins. And we’re at the point where the beat writer’s “they’re obviously not going to fire the coach” shirt is raising questions already answered by his shirt.
Then again, the Knights are just exploiting a system that’s there for everyone. They tend to do that when it comes to the player market too, which makes this an interesting week. Do we get another big move from the Knights, or have they already crossed off everything on their shopping list? We’ll find out over the next few days. But it may take a few more weeks to trust them enough to get them back into the top five. Even if that’s where they probably belong.
The five teams headed towards dead last, and the best lottery odds for the top pick in this year’s draft and a shot at Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.
I’m just going to go ahead and say it, some of you readers are out of your minds if you don’t think Connor Hellebuyck is easily a top-10 goalie of the modern era, and a lot closer to top-five than he is to not being on the list at all. With three Vezinas, a Hart and now a gold medal, he’s not quite knocking on the door of the Hasek/Roy/Brodeur trinity, but he’s within arm’s reach. The playoff resume is an issue, sure, but if you don’t think a three-time Vezina winner is in the elite tier then I’m not sure what to tell you.
Advertisement
5. Chicago Blackhawks (23-28-9, -29) – Yesterday’s impressive shutout win over Utah ended a post-break losing streak, which is either good news or not depending on where you’re at on the importance of another high pick. On that note, with Winnipeg tomorrow and the Canucks on Thursday, this is shaping up as a big week for lottery odds.
4. Calgary Flames (24-28-7, -26) – I’ve got to be honest, I kind of like the idea of Nazem Kadri going to the Sabres. Let’s make that happen.
3. St. Louis Blues (21-29-9, -50) – No, see, hockey gods, when I said I wanted the team Doug Armstrong built to beat the team Bill Guerin built in a tight Sunday battle, what I meant was…
Anyway, this is the week the Blues either trade Robert Thomas and/or Jordan Kyrou, or at least have to stop pretending for a few weeks. Exciting times. Here’s Shayna on what potential suitors should know.
2. New York Rangers (23-29-7, -32) – Do you think it was awkward for Vincent Trochek and J.T. Miller and Mike Sullivan to have to stop their gold medal talk whenever Adam Fox entered the room? I bet it was super awkward.
1. Vancouver Canucks (18-34-7, -68) – The latest from Drance not only captures the critical week ahead of the organization, it also makes use of the phrase “vortex of ineptitude” to do it.
Not ranked: New Jersey Devils – It’s been a weird stretch of NHL schedule for Devils fans. Heading into the break, they lost three straight in regulation to essentially end any lingering playoff hopes. Coming out of it, they went right back to losing, a streak they snapped against the Blues on Saturday. They’re done. Despite coming into the season with Cup hopes, they’re going to miss the playoffs by a mile, while probably also almost certainly losing out on a top-five pick. What a disaster.
Oh, and in between, the franchise player became a national hero.
Advertisement
We’ll stick to what Jack Hughes did on the ice, as opposed to the mess he and his teammates made off of it. But scoring the biggest goal of his career, and the biggest in American hockey since 1980, is the kind of thing that can redirect a player’s career. Mario Lemieux used his 1987 Canada Cup winner to signal that he was well and truly ready to take the torch from Wayne Gretzky. Hughes may not be in the “best player in the world” discussion, but will we look back at the 2026 Olympics as a turning point in his career trajectory?
And maybe more importantly, if you’re a Devils fan, does that potentially save an otherwise miserable season? Ever since being taken first in 2019, Hughes has essentially done two things at the NHL level: flash the kind of elite-level talent few players have, and then fail to do it for long enough to truly be considered for the league’s top tier.
Thanks to inconsistency and (mostly) injury, he’s only had one full season of top production, and that came back in 2022-23. Seven seasons into his career, he’s been a worthy No. 1 pick, but not the kind that transforms a franchise.
Right now, the Devils could use some transforming. Barring a miracle down the stretch, this year’s miss will be their second in three years, wrapped around last year’s brief appearance that saw them go out in five. Winning one playoff game in three years doesn’t sound like contender status, and the 2022-23 team that had 112 points and at least won a round feels like a lifetime ago.
That’s led to speculation of some big moves to come, including a busy rumor mill for Dougie Hamilton. Is that enough? Probably not, but after missing out on the Quinn Hughes deal we all figured would be a sure thing, there aren’t any easy answers here. There’s also the question of whether Tom Fitzgerald will even get the chance to turn this around, or whether a new GM is incoming. If so, what does that mean for Sheldon Keefe? Can you really start over when you’ve built the roster around two top picks in their prime?
Like we said, no easy answers. Except for one: Hughes using his big moment as a launching pad to finally looking like that consistent Hart-level franchise player would go a long way toward moving the needle in the right direction. It might even change how the 2025-26 season is remembered in New Jersey, from yet another disappointment to the start of a new era. Let’s see how it plays out.
Spot the pattern. Connect the terms
Find the hidden link between sports terms
Play today's puzzle
Sean McIndoe has been a senior NHL writer with The Athletic since 2018. He launched Down Goes Brown in 2008 and has been writing about hockey ever since, with stops including Grantland, Sportsnet and Vice Sports. His book, “The Down Goes Brown History of the NHL,” is available in book stores now. Follow Sean on Twitter @DownGoesBrown
Hockey News