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Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions, with us here at Last Word On Hockey. The Toronto Maple Leafs (3-3-1) hit the road Friday night to take on the Buffalo Sabres (3-4-0).
2024-25 Season Series: Leafs 3-0
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
Location: KeyBank Center at Buffalo, New York
Tonight’s game figures to be a high-pressure Atlantic Division showdown. Toronto arrives underwhelmingly inconsistent early in the season. Meanwhile, Buffalo is slightly ahead in the standings but showing offensive limitations. Here’s how this matchup shapes up, and why the Leafs still have the edge.
Toronto’s offence has averaged roughly 3.4 goals-per-game (24 goals over seven games), ranking 12th in the league. Buffalo, by contrast, has generated just 2.7 goals per game (19 goals over seven games), placing them 27th in NHL scoring.
Defensively, Toronto is leaking 3.6 goals-per-game (25 goals allowed), ranking 19th. Buffalo is giving up about 2.9 goals-per-game (20 allowed), which is much stronger (11th in the league).
So while Toronto holds an edge in offensive punch, Buffalo’s defence has been more consistent, setting up a classic “attack vs structure” narrative.
The Sabres come into this game riding a strong home-ice trend. They’ve won three straight games in Buffalo, and 15 of their last 20 contests at home.
On the other side, the Maple Leafs have struggled to close out games when they’re listed as favourites; they are 3-4 when favoured this season.
These trends suggest Buffalo might have the psychological edge at home, but Toronto still has the higher ceiling.
William Nylander leads Toronto with 13 points (two goals, 11 assists) in seven games making him one of the most productive forwards in the early season.
John Tavares is also contributing at nine points (four goals, fivr assists) in seven games.
For Buffalo, Jack Quinn and Josh Doan both have six points each (three goals, three assists).
Goaltending is a factor: Toronto’s starter Anthony Stolarz is 2-3-1 this season with a 3.01 goals-against average and an .894 save percentage, some numbers that raise concern.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s Alex Lyon is 2-4 with a 2.55 GAA and a .924 SV%, offering a stabilizing presence in net.
Toronto needs to play a complete game: generate high-danger chances, enforce tempo, and limit Buffalo’s time and space in their zone. Given Toronto’s offensive capabilities and Buffalo’s relative scoring inefficiency (2.7 GPG), the Leafs are primed to exploit the Sabres’ weaker attack.
The prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 2.
Toronto’s higher-end upside, led by Nylander and Tavares, should carry them. Buffalo will push hard at home, but may struggle to finish consistently against Toronto’s offensive depth.
Leafs moneyline (favored)
Total goals Over 6 (Toronto games have gone over this total five of seven times)
William Nylander to record a multiple-point game
For Toronto, a win here would provide momentum in a challenging Atlantic Division and help quiet critics who question their consistency. For Buffalo, a home loss shifts pressure back onto a young roster trying to establish identity and effectiveness. The Leafs’ ability to win on the road under pressure is a meaningful barometer for their playoff-contender status.
Main Photo Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images
Nicholas Giannone is a writer for Last Word on Sports, covering the Toronto Maple Leafs for the NHL department with a focus on team performance, player development, and organizational trends. Nicholas has a past in sports writing as he has written recaps for Albion College, as well as the Hockey Writers. He joined LWOS in 2025. Nicholas is currently pursuing a degree in Sport Management with a minor in Marketing and Integrated Communications at Albion College. His combination of academic insight and hands-on media experience allows him to provide thoughtful, data-driven coverage of the Maple Leafs and the NHL.
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