NHL
Welcome back to another edition of the NHL Playoff Report, a monthly look at the league through the eyes of each team’s chances of making the playoffs: Who’s up, who’s down and why.
After each night’s slate of games, our playoff projections page is updated taking into account the results from those games and fresh new data to feed into the model. Every night, everything changes and those changes add up quickly, especially if a team goes on a heater (or cooler). Those changes can also be difficult to view at a glance and it’s good practice to take stock regularly of what’s been happening.
Here’s what happened in December.
Here’s how things currently shake out. There are two spots extremely up for grabs with six teams vying for it, and four others who could find a way to surprise. No one is truly out of it yet. In the West, seven spots are basically locked in, but one spot has opened up enough for one main challenger and two long-shot bets to usurp it.
There is no better story in hockey this year than the Columbus Blue Jackets: A team that has rallied together amidst tragedy and played incredibly inspiring hockey.
The Blue Jackets stayed steady at a point-per-game pace over December, an impressive enough feat given a difficult, road-heavy schedule. The model has become increasingly bullish on the Blue Jackets with each month and now projects their Net Rating at minus-18. They started at minus-75, better than only the San Jose Sharks. Today, they’re challenging for a playoff spot, albeit in a very soft wildcard race.
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That growth stems from an emerging core of genuine difference-makers who have turned the Blue Jackets into a good offensive team. Columbus is top 10 in goals this season thanks to a renaissance season from Sean Monahan and breakthroughs from his main linemates Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko — the latter of which is pacing for 90 points. Most of all, it’s thanks to Zach Werenski who is proving he’s not just an elite No. 1 defenseman, but a game-changing one that is comfortably among the 10 best in the league.
It may not be a championship core yet, but that group of four shines bright enough to feel like a playoff-worthy one. There is potential for the Blue Jackets to fall back a bit — their five-on-five numbers were rough in December — but that they’ve held on this long as a .500 team is meaningful. That most of the value has come from the top of the lineup has not gone unnoticed. Dean Evason has done a wonderful job with this group and they have done a magnificent job of playing their absolute best in a season where that job could not have been harder.
I’ve never been happier to be wrong about a team and I hope that 19 percent keeps climbing over the next few months.
This time last month, the Senators’ playoff odds dropped from 52 percent to 18 percent thanks to a 4-7-2 record that was mostly the product of shoddy goaltending.
Immediately after that, Ottawa went on a tear winning eight of nine with Linus Ullmark winning all eight games he started. Finally, he looked like the goalie the team expected and that led to a huge surge in Ottawa’s playoff odds. Combine that with the rest of the East sagging and the Senators looked like they had the inside track on one of the wildcard spots. No team saw a bigger rise in playoff chances than Ottawa.
The Senators still have the best shot among the East’s bottom 10, though their odds have dropped over the last week. That’s thanks to Ullmark’s injury and a sagging offense on the back half of their road trip. At 60 percent the job isn’t done yet for Ottawa.
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The Senators are an average team doing average things and that could be enough this year in the East. But all it takes is one or two hot streaks elsewhere to push Ottawa out. The Senators need to lock in and get off the current roller coaster they’re on.
While St. Louis’ playoff odds haven’t materially changed much over the last month, the team itself looks a lot better. There’s a reason the Blues wasted no time going after Jim Montgomery once Boston fired him — he’s a difference-maker.
We’ll have a more in-depth look at what Montgomery has managed in St. Louis next week. For now, it’s worth pointing out that over the last month, the Blues’ Net Rating has climbed from an abysmal minus-40 to a much more respectable minus-20. That’s one of the biggest changes over the last month and provides real optimism that they are on the right track.
Since the last Playoff Report, the Blues are only playing at an 82-point pace, but it does feel like better results are on the horizon. Over that same stretch, the team has been legitimately good at five-on-five earning 53 percent of the xG, a top 10 mark with 57 percent of the goals to show for it.
If the Blues can keep that up long-term and clean up their penalty kill, their odds of making the playoffs are a lot rosier than made out to be here. Montgomery has the Blues playing genuinely good hockey and the model is starting to take notice (though perhaps not quickly enough).
The Kings headlined last month’s Playoff Report despite a 7-5-0 record, a product of the model seeing underlying improvement that could lead to a brighter future. December saw that come to fruition when the Kings were a scintillating 9-2-2, upping their playoff chances from 85 percent to just shy of 99. This team looks legit and saw an even larger rise in Net Rating this month going from plus-17 at the start to plus-34. The Kings will be far from an easy out this April.
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The continued defensive might of Vladislav Gavrikov and Mikey Anderson was a big deal, as was a potent new combo on the second line: Quinton Byfield and Warren Foegele. That duo was magic together in December leading the team in xG and goals, dominating at both ends of the ice. If Byfield is back on track and Foegele can be a legitimate difference-maker, that will be a big plus for Los Angeles’ depth advantage.
The model was extremely lukewarm on Vegas’ chances going into the season. Age, the threat of injury to key players, and a thin winger room all played into that. Now look at them: 28-9-3 and first in the league. The Golden Knights are a playoff lock and a threat to win the Presidents’ Trophy.
At five-on-five, the Golden Knights were fourth in xG at 57 percent and led all teams in goals at 63 percent. Defensively is where the model saw the biggest jump and that’s mostly thanks to the team’s top pair of Alex Pietrangelo and Noah Hanifin. After a rough start, the pair have got right back on track earning over 60 percent of the xG and 70 percent of the goals during the last month. Couple that with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone dominating and Vegas’ stars shined extremely bright.
And yet, the team’s increase within the model was tepid. Why? Strength of schedule. Of Vegas’ last eight games, six were at home and all eight were against some of the league’s weakest teams.
Vegas walloped that group better than expected and rose up the ranks because of it, but those wins do hold less weight in the model relative to strong games against good teams. The real tests for Vegas lie ahead and it’s part of the reason that Vegas’ Stanley Cup chances haven’t climbed as much. There’s still more to prove.
Honorable mentions: Colorado Avalanche, Montreal Canadiens, Pittsburgh Penguins
Once again, we have to talk about the Rangers. This time last month, their losing skid felt like a funk they’d shake off. The Rangers were 13-10-1 and had a full stable of underperforming stars capable of more.
Since then, everything has completely unraveled leading to a grizzly 5-10-1 stretch that’s put the Rangers’ playoff hopes on life support. No team’s playoff chances dropped more than the Rangers who went from 61 percent to 20 percent. Their season isn’t over, but it is looking grim.
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Over the last month, the Rangers have been a mess at five-on-five, more than usual, and have had a bafflingly bad power play. Only the Islanders were less effective with the man advantage as the Rangers scored just 3.3 goals-per-60. At some point that should turn given the personnel available and the chances they’ve created.
The big issue with the Rangers, more than anything, is the team’s defense. What was once a strength, anchored by one of the best goalies in the world, is now a weakness as the team’s Defensive Rating has dropped from plus-1.3 to minus-12.5 over the last month. At five-on-five the team gave up 2.81 xGA/60 and 3.13 GA/60, both among the league’s worst marks and the penalty kill was a train wreck. Igor Shesterkin had an .899 save percentage and still saved 6.6 goals above expected in nine games — that’s how bad the team in front of him was. That’s on a defense corps that has no one stepping up beyond Adam Fox, though it’s also on a forward group struggling to help.
Many Rangers players were supposed to be much better than this. Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Alexis Lafrenière, K’Andre Miller, Ryan Lindgren — the list goes on. If this is who they are now, the Rangers don’t have much hope. With how long this has gone on, the model has certainly soured on many of the team’s players which has led to the massive downgrade in playoff chances. It’s not just the losses, it’s how the team is losing leaving little optimism for a return to form.
And that’s the big question here: Can the Rangers find their gear after all this and channel the team that went to the conference final last year or is this really it?
In the Islanders’ defense, the team dealt with some key injuries to Mathew Barzal, Anthony Duclair, Adam Pelech and Semyon Varlamov that contributed to their slow first half. But even as the team got healthier, the Islanders have struggled to net any tangible results which has left them near the bottom of the East. Their strength of schedule only gets harder going forward.
The model still believes the Islanders are a slightly above average team which gives them higher playoff odds than their record would suggest they deserve. But that standing has dropped over the last month with one of the biggest drops of any team.
As solid as the Islanders still are at five-on-five, both of their special teams units have been abysmal. Over the last month they’ve scored just 2.3 goals per 60 on the power play and have allowed 16.4 against on the penalty kill — both last in the league. No team could succeed under those circumstances. That’s a trend that’s stayed steady throughout the season to the point that any upward regression expected by the model has diminished. The Islanders shouldn’t be this bad at both the power play and penalty kill. Their expected goal numbers suggest they should bounce back. But the longer they stay this bad, the easier it becomes to believe.
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That the team is still solid at five-on-five gives some hope, but if they can’t make things work on special teams over the second half, they might be doomed. It’s time for the team’s stars to step up. Barzal (10 points in 19 games), Brock Nelson (21 points in 40 games) and Noah Dobson (20 points in 40 games) need to be a lot more productive. Ilya Sorokin (minus-5.4 GSAx and minus-7.9 shorthanded) needs to be much more formidable between the pipes.
Like the Rangers, the Islanders’ stars usually shine much brighter than they’ve shown in the first half. The optimistic side is that they haven’t shown their best yet and that can spark a surge. The pessimistic side is that, like the Rangers, what the Islanders have at the top simply might not be good enough.
December was a trying time for the Canucks and it’s turning into a season where everything is going wrong.
Over the last month, Vancouver was without Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek and Thatcher Demko for stretches, leaving the team with a desolate roster. The blue line looked especially thin without the top pair and the goaltending behind it didn’t help. A very public rift between Pettersson and J.T. Miller has shaken the team, leaving a tense group that doesn’t have a bunch of wins to lean on to build morale. Vancouver’s PDO is still above average, but not at the level it was last season.
The Canucks were 13-7-3 one month ago. They’re 5-5-6 since.
It’s hard to judge what the Canucks really are because of everything going on around them. We haven’t seen the team with a fully healthy lineup yet and the model seems willing to believe that with good health, they will get back to being a strong team. Vancouver’s Net Rating, when healthy, hasn’t changed that much over the last month.
With all the injuries, it’s probably best not to put too much stock into the team’s poor underlying numbers. The Canucks have played only 17 games with all four of Pettersson, Miller, Hughes and Hronek in the lineup and were a top 10 xG during that time (52.8 percent).
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Still, all the injuries have revealed a team that’s vulnerable in more ways than one. The Canucks are a team that depends on good goaltending and may not reliably get it with Demko this season. That’s exacerbated by a blue line that has only two good defensemen which leads to strains whenever the top pair is off the ice. And the whole foundation is at a constant threat of falling apart whenever the losses pile up as the team’s two best forwards seemingly can’t stand each other unless they’re winning.
It’s a complete mess and it’s led to a market correction in Vancouver’s playoff odds and Stanley Cup odds. The Canucks entered the season looking poised to take the next step as a bonafide Cup contender. We haven’t seen that yet, and with how things have unfolded over the last month, it’s getting harder to imagine we will.
The Canucks are one winning streak with a healthy lineup away from healing all wounds, but for now, things feel grim.
Whatever small chance the Sabres had of making the playoffs one month ago is basically gone now. Instead, they are projected to finish last in the East and have a higher chance of earning the first overall pick instead. Woof.
While there was a fair bit of hope for the Sabres to finally turn things around at the start of the season, they’ve been a mess going 7-9-3 since the last Playoff Report. During that stretch, the Sabres weren’t horrifically bad at any one thing, but they weren’t good at any one thing either. It’s death by a thousand cuts for Buffalo.
There were some bright spots over the last month, namely the play of Jason Zucker and Rasmus Dahlin. But overall it was just more uninspiring hockey leading to a very likely lost season. For the Sabres to make it now, they would need a dramatic turnaround that this roster likely isn’t capable of.
The Blackhawks’ playoff chances were already cooked at the start of the month, but it is worth pointing out that they are even worse than imagined. Over the last month, they have been abysmal defensively and an effort to coax more offense has not worked well. The Blackhawks at least kept things close to start the season, but that hasn’t been the case much of late. Seth Jones, in particular, has struggled since returning from injury.
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No team has dropped its standing more than the Blackhawks over the last month and any hope that the team could take a meaningful step this season has evaporated.
Honorable mentions: Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators, Seattle Kraken
Here’s a league-wide look at how the odds have changed over the last month.
(Top photo of Sean Monahan, Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko: Ben Jackson / Getty Images)
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Dom Luszczyszyn is a national NHL writer for The Athletic who writes primarily about hockey analytics and new ways of looking at the game. Previously, he’s worked at The Hockey News, The Nation Network and Hockey Graphs. Follow Dom on Twitter @domluszczyszyn
