NHL
With free-agency season approaching, the big question on everyone’s mind comes down to cost: How much is each player worth?
Pricing players can be an inexact science, but is an extremely worthy exercise that can save future headaches. Last year it could’ve saved a team from drastically overpaying some of the top players available — Steven Stamkos, Elias Lindholm and Chandler Stephenson.
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The same will likely be true this year with the salary cap rising quickly and teams trying to figure out the market’s new normal. Sometimes teams have to take risks in the market to acquire players, even at uncomfortable prices, but it’s still better to understand where that bar should be set.
Our Chris Johnston has already delivered the top 50 players available. Now we’re going to estimate how good they are and, perhaps more importantly, will be. That’s based on each player’s projected Net Rating over the duration of an expected contract that takes into account how the player likely ages and future cap growth. Net Rating isn’t infallible, but it serves as a strong starting point for discussion.
Here are the top defensemen available this summer.
Top centers | Top wingers
At his absolute peak in 2021-22, Aaron Ekblad was a monster in every zone, fully realizing the potential he showed as the top pick in 2014. Aside from that season, though, Ekblad has never really been the star many expected him to become. A great defenseman, sure, but not a bona fide No. 1.
Perhaps that can change in a different locale, but at this stage he looks closer to a high-end No. 2 defenseman — one that’s expected to age surprisingly well based on his closest comps.
It helps that Ekblad’s top two matches — Jake Muzzin and Mattias Ekholm — found a second life after 30, but he also shares strong profiles with other defenders who had staying power. A poor man’s Alex Pietrangelo is probably the most fitting comp, though with less offense and more nastiness.
The price of that is fairly expensive, but right in line with what AFP Analytics is projecting: just shy of $8 million. Consider what Filip Hronek signed for last year as a similarly valuable player and it makes sense why Ekblad would take up the same percentage of cap space. It’s the going rate for a quality No. 2 who can facilitate offense with a team’s top players and help shut things down well enough the other way. That’s Ekblad (whose Defensive Rating is usually much higher than his current forecast).
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As much as my model believes Ekblad is worthy of $7.8 million on a long-term deal, it’s notable that the Florida Panthers are rumored to not agree with that notion. The Panthers are arguably the league’s best team at both pro scouting and pricing players. If they’re not as high, there’s probably a very good reason for it.
Ekblad’s age is obviously the biggest concern and while the comps-based trajectory is kind, it’s likely that Ekbkad’s own team probably has the best read on how he might age.
The other consideration is Ekblad’s Offensive Rating. Is it legit? Based on data tracked by Corey Sznajder, Ekblad is pretty good at creating offense in-zone, but his puck-moving ability before that does leave something to be desired. It’s possible he works well with talented forwards, but it’s also possible he’s benefiting more than my model suggests from sharing the ice with them.
It’s a question of whether he’s a driver, and there’s a reasonable argument to be made that he isn’t. Not on Paul Maurice’s Panthers, anyway. But on a different team, there is a chance that can change considering how much more involved Ekblad used to be with the puck in 2020-21 and 2021-22. Add that to his ability to retrieve pucks and defend rushes and Ekblad has potential to be an all-around stud.
If those dormant skills can be activated elsewhere, Ekblad could prove to be a No. 1 again. But the more likely scenario is that he is what he has been with Florida. Everything, including how much he’s worth, depends on how his new team uses him.
While Vladislav Gavrikov was fantastic last season, that looks like it could be a peak driven by being in a contract year. Gavrikov should age well aside from that and be a capable defensive No. 2 or 3 through his 30s. But it’s important to be pragmatic about price where something in the mid-to-high $6 million range makes a lot more sense for what he likely brings than an AAV approaching or exceeding $8 million. Great player, but definitely some buyer-beware factor due to price.
Based purely on his top comp, there might not be a free agent more interesting than Dante Fabbro. Can he be the next MacKenzie Weegar?
That comp alone is enough to salivate over, and while it’s not likely as one of 128 paths, the mere potential of a late-blooming defensive stud at the price of a No. 4 could be a huge win for a team. Fabbro’s production, play-driving, usage and ratings all line up closely with where Weegar was at before a breakout. It’s possible Fabbro, a 2016 first-round pick, charts a similar course.
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Back in 2019-20, Weegar was just starting to show what he was capable of in a top-four role. He flashed strong puck-moving ability, defended well and showed a lot of promise thanks to great underlying numbers. It was on him to prove it further — which is exactly what he did the following season. Weegar’s tracked stats from Corey Sznajder from 2020-21 were seriously special as he arrived as a star defender.
Fabbro has flashed similarly strong puck-moving traits, though not consistently. With Nashville he was great at breaking the puck out, but only excelled offensively in 2022-23 (he was average in 2023-24). And in Columbus, where Fabbro finally broke through, his tracked stats were all actually below average.
I asked Sznajder about the discrepancy and he noted that Fabbro had a specialized role next to Roman Josi, where he would retrieve pucks to allow Josi to play up ice more. That coincides with Josi’s defensive workload shrinking over the last few years to allow more offensive focus. Next to Zach Werenski, it’s possible Fabbro’s role in that area shrank, he himself slumped playing more minutes, or it’s simply a bad sample of games tracked (only 180 minutes).
Given the success of the pair however (and the success of Josi and Fabbro), it’s probably fair to suggest Fabbro can be a capable sidekick to a star. That’s no small feat and he’s proven that next to two of the game’s best. While some may be tempted to attribute 100 percent of the credit to the star, I don’t think it’s quite that simple. Josi in particular always looked at his best with Fabbro serving as a defensive security blanket.
Is that worth the $6.3 million the model is suggesting for Fabbro? Probably not. To this degree, my model is probably being a little overzealous about what Fabbro brings to the table. His lack of size and bite is also something that should be considered as it may mean Fabbro is less effective in a playoff environment.
While the model may be too high on Fabbro, I do think there’s a good chance it’s directionally correct and Fabbro, while maybe not this good, is someone to bet on at the projected price. He’s a younger UFA defender who proved himself well last season after being overlooked in Nashville. Given Fabbro’s trajectory to date, more proof is probably needed before committing long-term, but for now his game offers a lot of intrigue within the market. As a quietly serviceable defender with an extremely interesting top comp, Fabbro offers some real bang-for-buck potential.
Arguably no player saw a larger negative perception shift than Dmitry Orlov during this year’s playoffs. Over 15 playoff games, his expected Net Rating was plus-0.7. His actual value was minus-1.7, a minus-2.4 goal difference that ranks as the third worst of the playoffs ahead of only Esa Lindell and Josh Morrissey. That’s not the kind of performance you want to see from a 34-year-old entering free agency.
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Orlov’s brutal playoff showing begs the question of whether or not this is the start of the end for him. This is around the time when Matt Niskanen hung them up and Johnny Boychuk began to fall off — both prominent Orlov comps.
My model believes Orlov will be a second-pair defenseman during a three-year deal, but a drop-off is coming — we just don’t know when or how steep. The playoffs possibly being a clue to it being sooner than later is a scary thought.
Given that, it’s extremely hard to justify paying Orlov $5.8 million on his next deal — not to a player that a contending team may want to shelter come playoff time. Orlov is still a great puck-mover and may even thrive in that regard away from Carolina. And he still played well in a second-pair role during the season. But it all depends on price, and Orlov should arguably come in at around $4.5 million. Paying more given the signs of immediate decline in the playoffs would be a huge risk.
There is value in eating minutes and Ivan Provorov certainly eats a lot of them. Provorov averaged over 23 minutes per game last season and was an all-situations workhorse. Only 26 players played more than Provorov last season and that does carry value, even if Provorov’s underlying metrics aren’t sterling. It’s hard work playing that often, generally against the league’s better players, and that does excuse Provorov … to an extent. That extent is probably not a $7 million contract, which is what both AFP Analytics and Evolving Hockey project on a long-term deal.
Provorov plays tough minutes, but they aren’t the toughest. We’re talking 70th to 80th percentile, not Moritz Seider level. Provorov is an adequate puck-mover in some areas, though he doesn’t really stand out in that regard. His tracked data courtesy of Corey Sznajder doesn’t scream underrated star. Provorov doesn’t score a lot of points and doesn’t defend at a particularly elite rate either. He’s sort of just average at a lot of things.
And that’s fine! Provorov works well as a serviceable second-pair guy and could help solidify a team’s top four. But the degree to which he’s able to do that is very likely not worth $7 million, an amount where a team should be hoping for a steady No. 2/3 that genuinely moves the needle (like Ekblad or Gavrikov). It’s been a while since Provorov consistently played at that level. He won’t hurt a team on the ice, but the degree that he’ll help is probably overstated.
With that being said, there is some potential upside in Provorov’s staying power, especially later in the contract when $7 million moves closer to No. 3 money. Three of Provorov’s top comps — Francois Beauchemin, Dmitry Orlov and Jeff Petry — all aged extremely well in their 30s. They found a second career, often as the steady No. 2 necessary for Provorov to be worth a big-money deal. If there was strong certainty that Provorov can age in a similar fashion, paying him big money for a long time wouldn’t be as much of a risk. Provorov has the pedigree as a skilled player to make it feel more likely too.
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But at the current rate of what he’s shown lately, that’s more of a best-case scenario, especially considering all three of those players had something that made them stand apart. There are plenty of other paths from defensemen who ate minutes but struggled to do so at a rate commensurate to top-pair value. If Provorov follows that more-likely trajectory, there’s high potential for a Day 1 albatross deal.
True top-four defensemen are hard to find, but that doesn’t mean a team has to substantially overpay for one who’s probably on the lower end of that scale. Provorov is fine, but a team should want much better than fine at his likely price.
The NHL’s oldest player took a lot of hits from Hurricanes fans this season, understandably so given Burns’ presence at the top of the lineup — and blunders many nights. Surely there was a better option, right?
While Jaccob Slavin has the ability to make anyone look defensively competent, it’s important to remember matchup minutes are hard work — even with help. That Burns was in that role and holding his own at his age is admirable. His numbers: fine. His microstats: fine. He was fine! It just wasn’t ideal, not for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. But by any indication, Burns still had enough juice to be a passable No. 2 in a matchup role and that isn’t easy.
Where does that leave him going into the 2025-26 season? Who knows. His only comps are Zdeno Chara and Rob Blake, both of whom didn’t regress much at age 40. Blake hung them up at 41, but Chara managed several more years of effectiveness after that. Can Burns do the same? Again, who knows. At his age, we’re in fairly uncharted waters: Burns has it until he doesn’t. And when he doesn’t, that will be very apparent.
Perhaps that’s what fans were griping about last year — that Burns didn’t have it anymore and Slavin was papering over all those issues, enough to fool this model. That’s certainly a possibility and it’s the risk any new teams takes in signing Burns. Can he be as effective without one of the best defensive defensemen in the world next to him? It’s a tough call.
My model expects a drop-off that still puts his market value above the projected $5.4 million deal AFP Analytics expects. But as you can see from the trajectory, there’s a wide range of outcomes for Burns that goes anywhere from no drop-off at all (like Chara) to a cliff that leaves little doubt it’s over (like Kimmo Timonen). That’s a tough bet to make and getting a good price is imperative.
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Over the last five years, Nate Schmidt’s expected goals percentage has risen each season from 45 percent in his one season in Vancouver to 57 percent in his final season in Winnipeg to 58 percent in Florida this past season. Is he aging like Benjamin Button after looking washed in Vancouver? Probably not — it’s just a matter of Schmidt sliding down the lineup.
With the Canucks, Schmidt was still used as a shutdown defenseman getting some of the absolute toughest minutes in the league in the 95th percentile. With the Jets last season and the Panthers this season, his usage has been closer to the 10th-15th percentile. No wonder he’s looked a lot more efficient.
Where does that leave the soon-to-be 34-year-old? Probably in the No. 4/5 range: a defender who can crush sheltered minutes and may even be able to slide onto the second pair in a pinch. As long as Schmidt isn’t getting big, tough minutes, he can be an effective asset.
At the projected $3 million, Schmidt is a pretty worthy bet. He’s a big part of what’s made Florida’s blue line feel so deep during the playoffs. Schmidt can probably handle more difficulty, but the Panthers put him in a spot where he doesn’t have to. And that makes a huge difference for a contending team. Just don’t expect this year’s 58 percent xG to translate up the lineup.
Fun fact: Matt Grzelcyk was second on the Penguins in power play ice-time among defenders, beating out Kris Letang. At times, he was even the team’s No. 1 option ahead of Erik Karlsson. Maybe Grzelcyk is better than many think, maybe it’s an indictment on the two veterans (or the coaching staff), but either way it did happen — and it could get him a few more dollars than he’s probably worth. There aren’t many defenders available who scored 40 points last year.
The Net Rating forecast above assumes Grzelcyk will not be getting nearly as much power-play time next year, which pushes his value closer to No. 5 territory. That puts his market value under $3 million, $1 million less than AFP Analytics forecasts.
Grzelcyk’s game has fallen off a fair bit from the heights he was at with Boston playing on the top pair with Charlie McAvoy. He doesn’t drive play nearly as well and doesn’t move the puck as strongly either. Even then, though, he was a playoff liability due to his size (5-foot-10) which is another thing to consider when signing him.
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The right team and fit could get a lot of utility out of Grzelcyk in a sheltered role. But in his 30s, it’s hard to see him providing top-four value on a good team. A late-career Nick Leddy comp feels apt.
Can Henri Jokiharju be the latest Buffalo cast-off to find greener pastures elsewhere? Ehhhhh, probably not. But he is very young for a free agent, has pedigree, and for the first season of his career had above-average on-ice numbers relative to teammates. With Jake McCabe serving as a top comp, maybe there could be something there in the right environment.
Jokiharju’s puck skills are limited, but it’s possible he ages to be passable defensively. At the very least, he looks serviceable lower in the lineup. Jokiharju’s forecast shows expected improvement and a higher ceiling than similar players of the same caliber. Perhaps that’s something worth betting on.
Back in 2023-24 when things started going south for Ryan Lindgren, there was reason to be hopeful of a bounce-back. He was still young enough and still performed well enough with the puck to be hopeful. After a difficult 2024-25 campaign where his puck skills evaporated, it’s a lot harder to see Lindgren as a viable top-four option.
That’s what AFP Analytics projects for him at $4 million and that feels like it’ll be a difficult deal to live up to, now three years removed from playing top-four-caliber hockey. At this stage, Lindgren is probably a third-pair option and should be paid accordingly.
There are two things to consider with John Klingberg: betting on talent and betting against age.
Klingberg, as a former elite defenseman, is probably a better bet to exceed expectations than a different defender valued as third-pair caliber. Injuries take a long time to perfectly and we’re seeing that play out with Klingberg during the playoffs. He’s looked like his vintage self often enough to view him as an intriguing bet for next season. It’s not just his puck-moving that’s turned heads, it’s also that he’s looked significantly more sound defensively. Playoff Klingberg has been a needle-mover.
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But he’s also now firmly in his 30s and looked pedestrian at best over the 25 regular-season games he’s played with Toronto and Edmonton over the last two years. He improved with the Oilers, yes, but probably still not enough to be an everyday option.
At a low price with no term, Klingberg is worth taking a bet on for the flashes he’s shown in the playoffs alone. But it’s worth exhibiting caution based on his still-small sample before investing money and years on him — or declaring him officially back.
By all accounts, there’s nothing special about Nick Perbix based on public data. Every stat looks like exactly what you’d expect from a third-pair defenseman (and you can see the model treats him very differently than Fabbro, despite Perbix also spending a lot of time with Victor Hedman before this season). Even Perbix’s immediate comps don’t show a potential star path (though Anton Stralman is his 13th-best match).
What makes Perbix interesting is that he seems like he has the tools to be better, he just needs to put it together. That’s based on Sznajder’s tracking work where, in a limited role, Perbix looked excellent with the puck. He created offense, he rushed up ice, he broke the puck out, he retrieved pucks — and he did it all fairly well.
That explains why Perbix’s Offensive Rating is near second pair calibre with room to grow in an expanded role. What holds him back is the same thing that holds a lot of sheltered stars back: defense. There’s a reason they aren’t trusted further up the lineup.
If Perbix can figure out off-puck play better, there could be hidden value here based on his puck skills. The most likely scenario is that Perbix is just another third pair guy that can’t make the top four jump. The small chance he can be more makes Perbix an interesting lottery ticket.
If you look at just Brian Dumoulin’s on-ice numbers, his last three years look like a roller coaster. Bad in Pittsburgh! Great in Seattle! Bad again in Anaheim!
The truth is that there probably wasn’t actually that much variation in Dumoulin’s ability, it’s just that the Kraken were the only team that utilized him properly: away from hard matchups.
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With a projected $3.2 million AAV, the expectation for Dumoulin would be for him to be a No. 4/5 defender which is probably fair for what he is today. The only concern lies with his age. Can Dumoulin be steady in his mid-30s once shifted to a lesser role, like Justin Braun? Or is further decline like Marc-Edouard Vlasic, regardless of role, more likely?
My model might be a little harsh with its valuation, but for players at Dumoulin’s age it’s probably better to be safe than sorry. Splitting the difference, but keeping it under $3 million might be the best bet here.
A No. 4 that plays No. 2 minutes and often looks like a No. 6. That’s been Cody Ceci’s career in a nutshell: probably better than given credit for by the numbers, but definitely way worse than how he was utilized.
At the top of the lineup, Ceci was overexposed, leading to some awful on-ice stats that probably would’ve looked fine if he was simply used in a more appropriate role. That was until the 2024 playoffs, where Ceci’s on-ice results began to reach a territory far too dismal to wash away by usage excuses alone. That bled into an ugly 2024-25 campaign where Ceci drowned in San Jose and didn’t improve much with a better supporting cast in Dallas. During the playoffs, the Stars had 40 percent of the expected goals and 32 percent of the goals with Ceci on the ice, both near team lows.
There’s a possibility that Ceci could bounce back and thrive on a third pair, but I wouldn’t invest much to find out.
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards, AFP Analytics and All Three Zones
(Top photo of Vladislav Gavrikov: Martin Keep / AFP via Getty Images)
Dom Luszczyszyn is a national NHL writer for The Athletic who writes primarily about hockey analytics and new ways of looking at the game. Previously, he’s worked at The Hockey News, The Nation Network and Hockey Graphs. Follow Dom on Twitter @domluszczyszyn
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