The 2025 NCAA men’s hockey tournament field is still unsettled as we head into the final weekend of conference tournament play. There are 12 teams who are essentially guaranteed a spot in the 16-team field that makes up the road to the 2025 Men’s Frozen Four.
A simple glance at the Pairwise ratings going into the weekend shows 11 teams essentially locked into the tournament. Their position in the final ratings which helps the committee determine seeding is still in doubt, but they at least can clear their plans for March 27-30 when we drop the puck at the regionals.
For the uninitiated, unlike March Madness or the College Football Playoff, there is no subjectivity in tournament selections. The Pairwise was adopted 30 years ago as a comparison formula and has been refined over the years to get the system we have today. So if your team doesn’t get an automatic bid, there’s no one to blame but math.
Conference tournament champions receive an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, so that expands the field of teams still alive for spots in the tournament to 24. Eight of those teams have one path to the tournament and that is to win their conference this weekend.
It may not officially be the case, but the NCAA tournament essentially begins this weekend with a lot of teams controlling their own destiny and a few teams watching through their fingers from the sidelines.
To help get you ready for the weekend ahead, here are the situations to watch for…
1. Boston College
2. Michigan State
3. Maine
4. Minnesota
5. Western Michigan
6. Boston University
7. UConn
8. Providence
9. Ohio State
10. Denver
11. UMass
12. Quinnipiac
13. Penn State
14. Michigan
15. Arizona State
16. Minnesota State
The teams listed at Nos. 1-11 are locked into the NCAA tournament according to College Hockey News’s Pairwise Probability Matrix. Results of this weekend can impact where they are seeded, but it cannot knock them out of the NCAA tournament.
So that means, Boston College, Michigan State, Maine, Minnesota, Western Michigan, Boston University, UConn, Providence, Ohio State, Denver and UMass can all keep their schedules clear for the regionals week. UConn is guaranteed to make its first ever appearance at the NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament, led by Hockey East Coach of the Year Mike Cavanaugh.
Additionally, Minnesota State is guaranteed their spot in the tournament as well. They are playing for the CCHA championship, but do so against St. Thomas, which is still ineligible for the NCAA tournament after making the move to Division I four years ago. Therefore, Minnesota State gets the CCHA’s auto-bid regardless of result Saturday.
There are currently three teams that are in the danger zone of being eliminated from the NCAA tournament based on the results of this weekend: Quinnipiac, Penn State and Michigan.
Quinnipiac has the ability to automatically qualify as they are playing in the ECAC semifinals this weekend. A tournament win guarantees their berth into the tournament, but they would still have a chance to nab an at-large bid depending on the results of other conference tournaments.
Penn State and Michigan are two teams that have no control and have to hope that favorites win the conference tournaments.
According to CHN’s Pairwise Probability Matrix, Penn State has an 85% chance at reaching the tournament as an at-large. Meanwhile, Michigan is clinging to a 27% chance.
The No. 16 seed will go to the Atlantic Hockey auto qualifier. Minnesota State already has an autobid.
If any one of Arizona State, North Dakota, Cornell, Clarkson, Dartmouth or Northeastern win a conference tournament this weekend, Michigan is out. If any two of those teams win, Penn State and Michigan are out. If any three of those teams win a conference title and Quinnipiac does not, all three bubble teams are out.
There are eight teams still alive in their conference tournament that have just one path to the NCAA.
In Hockey East, Northeastern’s only way to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference. They just knocked off No. 1 Boston College in the quarterfinals, though, so anything is possible.
In ECAC, Quinnipiac would like to make their wait for the NCAA selection show easier by just winning the conference. However, they’ll have Cornell, Dartmouth and Clarkson all playing hungry for the chance to get to the NCAA tournament.
In the NCHC, Arizona State is in the agonizingly close No. 15 spot in the Pairwise, but because Minnesota State and the Atlantic Hockey champion get automatic bids, that’s not good enough. The Sun Devils have to win the NCHC tournament to get in. So, too, does North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey America will come down to Holy Cross and Bentley in Saturday’s championship game. Holy Cross has home ice after winning the league regular-season title, but Bentley knocked off a talented Sacred Heart squad in the semis. Whoever wins this game will get the No. 16 seed and very likely play Boston College in the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
Semis: Thursday, March 20
Championship: Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where to Watch Hockey East Tournament: NESN, ESPN+
Semis: Friday, March 21
Championship: Saturday at 5 p.m. ET
Where to Watch ECAC Hockey Tournament: ESPN+
Semis: Friday, March 21
Championship: Saturday at 7:30 p.m. CT
Where to Watch NCHC Frozen Faceoff: CBS Sports Network
Bentley vs. Holy Cross, 7:05 p.m. ET
Where to Watch the AHA Championship: FloHockey
Ohio State vs. Michigan State, 8 p.m. ET
Where to Watch The Big Ten Championship: Big Ten Network, BTN+
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