Erie defenseman, Saginaw forward projected for Islanders, Sharks coming off lottery in 2nd set of predictions
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Following the NHL Draft Lottery on Monday, NHL.com deputy managing editor Adam Kimelman and senior draft writer Mike G. Morreale make their predictions for how the first 16 selections of the 2025 Upper Deck NHL Draft could turn out.
The New York Islanders won the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, and Kimelman and Morreale agree they will use that pick on defenseman Matthew Schaefer from Erie of the Ontario Hockey League.
They also believe the San Jose Sharks will select center Michael Misa from Saginaw of the OHL with the No. 2 pick.
Their opinions vary widely on what could happen after that.
The 2025 draft will be held at L.A. Live’s Peacock Theater in Los Angeles. The first round will be held June 27 (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS), with rounds 2-7 on June 28 (Noon ET; NHLN, ESPN+, SN, SN1).
The 16 teams that missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs took part in the lottery drawing for the first two selections. The remaining teams were ordered based on the NHL standings.
Picks 17-32 will be determined by the results of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Kimelman — Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL): Schaefer is the consensus best player in the draft with the ability to be a No. 1 defenseman who can play all situations. The 17-year-old has been out since having surgery Dec. 30 for a broken clavicle sustained playing for Canada at the 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship, but his work through the first few months of the season pushed him to the head of this year’s draft class. Schaefer is the best skater available. His offensive game is dynamic and he’s strong enough (6-foot-2, 183 pounds) to handle any situation in the defensive zone.
Morreale — Matthew Schaefer: Schaefer is an elite skater, can kill penalties and quarterback a power play. The injury sustained at World Juniors shouldn’t discourage the Islanders from choosing him first, especially considering they lack a blue-chip defenseman prospect.
Kimelman — Michael Misa, C, Saginaw (OHL): The Sharks can continue to build depth through the middle of the ice with Misa (6-1, 184), who has earned comparisons to John Tavares for his high-end skill and hockey IQ. The 18-year-old led the Canadian Hockey League with 134 points (62 goals, 72 assists) in 65 games. He does it with strong skating, vision and creativity in the offensive zone.
Morreale — Michael Misa: Saginaw’s captain has been a star since he was granted exceptional player status into the OHL as a 15-year-old in 2022-23. Misa had 46 multipoint games and 16 multigoal games. He scored 21 power-play goals and four short-handed goals and won 51.0 percent of his face-offs this season. He possesses a high hockey IQ and exhibits patience and poise with the puck in big moments.
Kimelman — Jake O’Brien, C, Brantford (OHL): O’Brien (6-2, 172) elevated his game in the second half of the season, standing out for his poise, vision, playmaking ability and willingness to play hard all 200 feet. The 17-year-old can slow the game down in the offensive zone and find scoring opportunities for himself or his teammates, can check other teams’ top players and can play in all situations. As the Blackhawks continue to build depth through the middle, the potential of Connor Bedard and O’Brien as their top two centers is a tantalizing thought.
Morreale — James Hagens, C, Boston College (NCAA): Hagens (5-10, 177) flourished at the World Juniors with nine points (five goals, four assists) and 20:33 of ice time in seven games to help the United States to its second straight gold medal as the first-line center. He’s a team-first player, offers great competitiveness and showed a commitment to excel in the defensive zone as an 18-year-old freshman at Boston College. He had 37 points (11 goals, 26 assists) in 37 games this season.
Kimelman — Anton Frondell, C, Djurgarden (SWE-2): Frondell (6-1, 198) eventually could move to the wing, but his elite offensive game should translate no matter where he plays. He’s an outstanding skater and he uses it well on the forecheck. He has a high compete level, won’t shy away from physical play, has a quick release on his shot and can beat goalies from distance with it. He turns 18 on Wednesday, and playing with and against older competition in Allsvenskan, the second pro division in Sweden, already gives him an understanding of the pro hockey lifestyle, which should accelerate his development.
Morreale — Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton (QMJHL): Desnoyers (6-1, 178) was fifth in the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League with 84 points (35 goals, 49 assists) in 56 games. The 18-year-old is the type of player who wants the puck and will do anything to get it. He leads the QMJHL playoffs with 24 points (nine goals, 15 assists) in 13 games.
Kimelman — James Hagens: He could be the true franchise center the Predators seem to always be searching for. What he lacks in size he makes up for in dynamic skill and skating. He’s consistently played and succeeded against older competition, was a point-per-game player as a college freshman, and tied for the United States lead at the WJC with five goals as the youngest player on the gold-medal winning team.
Morreale — Jake O’Brien: The right-handed shot was seventh in assists (66) and tied for seventh in points (98) in 66 OHL games and had 50 power-play points (nine goals, 41 assists). O’Brien, named OHL Rookie of the Year in 2023-24, has good hands, creativity and can read the ice well with the puck.
Kimelman — Roger McQueen, C, Brandon (WHL): McQueen might be the most intriguing player in the draft class. The 18-year-old has NHL-ready size (6-5, 197) and checks every box a team would want in a potential franchise center, especially for Philadelphia, which has a desperate need for a game-changer at the position. Though McQueen played just 17 regular-season games because of a back injury that sidelined him for five months, the Flyers are uniquely situated to take a chance with three first-round picks this year. Selecting McQueen here would be a big swing, but there’s potential for a giant reward.
Morreale — Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL): The Flyers need more snarl along the blue line and Aitcheson (6-1, 196) not only fills that void but can push the pace with some offensive flair. The 18-year-old was third among OHL defensemen with 26 goals and seventh with 59 points in 64 games, and had 21 power play points (nine goals, 12 assists). Defensively, he’s fierce, gets in the face of his opponent and is physically engaged.
Kimelman — Porter Martone, RW, Brampton (OHL): Martone (6-3, 208) brings a physical, offensive game that’s been compared to Ottawa Senators captain Brady Tkachuk and Edmonton Oilers forward Corey Perry. Martone had the maturity to become Brampton’s captain as an 18-year-old. His decision-making with the puck, ability to use his body to hold off defenders and high hockey IQ also stand out, and he’s worked hard to improve his skating.
Morreale — Porter Martone: The right-shot power forward has a proven scoring touch, leading Brampton with 98 points (37 goals, 61 assists) and 29 power-play points (seven goals, 22 assists) in 57 games. Boston needs a powerful, game-breaking forward in the pipeline. Martone fits the bill.
Kimelman — Caleb Desnoyers: He showcased a high-skill offensive game with the ability to compete against the opposition’s best players. He’s an outstanding skater with a high hockey IQ who almost always is in the right position in all three zones. Seattle has done well drafting high-skill players the past few seasons, including Berkly Catton (No. 8, 2024 NHL Draft) and Eduard Sale (No. 20, 2023); Desnoyers is the type of forward who will help get the most out of those players while contributing in a big way himself.
Morreale — Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL): The right-shot defenseman (6-6, 207), born in Czechia, is hard to miss. The Western Hockey League rookie possesses great hockey sense and competitiveness. The 17-year-old is considered a two-way defenseman whose upside is too good to pass up. Selected by Seattle in the second round (No. 71) of the 2024 CHL import draft, Mrtka had 35 points (three goals, 32 assists) in 43 games.
Kimelman — Radim Mrtka: One of the Sabres’ biggest strengths is their young defense corps led by Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Bowen Byram, but it’s not often a team has a chance to add a giant right-shot defenseman who can skate and move the puck the way Mrtka can. He began the season with Trinec in the top pro league in his native Czechia. He came to North America looking for more ice time and took advantage of it, showcasing his outstanding skating and growing offensive game. Defensively he can use his long stick to keep forwards to the outside or break up plays on the rush.
Morreale — Anton Frondell: He had knee surgery in September and has been progressing ever since. Frondell had 25 points (11 goals, 14 assists) in 29 regular-season games and seven points (three goals, four assists) in 16 playoff games in Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second professional men’s league. He is good with the puck, plays a no-nonsense style and has a good scoring touch with the puck on his stick.
Kimelman — Victor Eklund, RW, Djurgarden (SWE-2): Eklund has stood out all season against older competition. The 18-year-old has led all under-20 players in Allsvenskan with 31 points (19 goals, 12 assists) in 42 games, and had six points (two goals, four assists) in seven games for Sweden at the 2025 WJC. Eklund is an outstanding skater and has shown no problem handling physical play well despite his size (5-11, 161).
Morreale — Jack Nesbitt, C, Windsor (OHL): Nesbitt (6-4, 185) compares his style to Dallas Stars forward Jamie Benn, stressing his physicality, playmaking and hockey sense as his strongest attributes. The 18-year-old was fifth on Windsor with 64 points (25 goals, 39 assists) in 65 games. He contributes on the power play (six goals) and penalty kill (two short-handed goals) and won 51.4 percent of his face-offs.
Kimelman — Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL): As the Penguins look to transition to younger, more athletic players up and down the lineup, Smith could be the right player for them in this spot. The left-shot defenseman has NHL-ready size (6-3, 195), skates well enough to be a one-man breakout and can make a smart first pass out of the zone. Smith, who turns 18 on May 13, had 54 points (11 goals, 43 assists) in 68 games this season.
Morreale — Brady Martin, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL): The right-handed shot (6-0, 178) complements a power-forward style with a great work ethic and intelligence in the offensive zone. Martin relishes play in the trenches and is the type of player who will make an impact in clutch situations. The 18-year-old had 72 points (33 goals, 39 assists), eight power-play goals, and three short-handed goals in 57 games.
Kimelman — Jack Nesbitt: The Rangers need to get younger through the middle of the ice, and Nesbitt was able to use his size and skating to stand out on a strong Windsor team this season. He plays a smart 200-foot game to go with his strong offensive skill set.
Morreale — Roger McQueen: There’s a lot to like about the right-handed center, who has size, a big shot and deft scoring touch to complement an extremely good motor. McQueen could be a steal at this point in the draft. He had 20 points (10 goals, 10 assists) despite missing 51 games.
Kimelman — Carter Bear, LW, Everett (WHL): An Achilles injury ended Bear’s season March 9, but he scored 40 goals in 56 games when healthy, and the 18-year-old showed the ability to get his shot off quick in tight spaces. Bear (6-0, 179) is smart and skilled enough to find open ice and produce but is strong enough to make space for himself below the face-off dots and finish around the net. His work ethic on and off the ice also is one of his better qualities, and Everett general manager Mike Fraser has raved about Bear’s coachability and low-maintenance attitude.
Morreale — Victor Eklund: He is slight in stature, but has a good work ethic, a quality he learned from his older brother, Sharks forward William Eklund. Victor was a standout with Djurgarden in Sweden’s second division who had seven points (two goals, five assists) in 16 playoff games.
Kimelman — Lynden Lakovic, LW, Moose Jaw (WHL): Lakovic is an outstanding skater for a player his size (6-4, 190), and the 18-year-old has the ability to skate through checks or put a defender on his hip and use his length to protect the puck and use another asset, his outstanding shot. The Blue Jackets have done well finding centers the past few years in the draft, topped by Adam Fantilli, Gavin Brindley and Cayden Lindstrom. Lakovic seems like the perfect piece to put around them.
Morreale — Jackson Smith: He brings good speed and movement through the neutral zone to lead the rush. A fan of Blackhawks defenseman Kevin Korchinski, Smith can run the first unit on the power play or penalty kill, can finish hits, and take charge in transition. Columbus could use more young depth on the back end.
Kimelman — Kashawn Aitcheson: He brings an entertaining mix of offensive skill and brute strength that makes him a nightmare to play against, similar to Ducks defenseman Jacob Trouba. The left-handed shot was smart with his aggressive style, finishing with 88 penalty minutes and a plus-6 rating in 64 games, while also drawing the toughest defensive assignments each game.
Morreale — Carter Bear: The versatile forward can play center but seems most effective on wing, where he led Everett in goals (40), power-play goals (14) and points (82) in 56 games. The left-handed shot plays the bumper on the power play and had four short-handed points (two goals, two assists). Bear can scale a lineup, is hard on plays and will finish checks. A lacerated Achilles tendon sustained in March may drop him to the mid-to-late teens in the draft.
Kimelman — Cameron Schmidt, RW, Vancouver (WHL): The Canadiens’ biggest need might be at center, but Schmidt is too good to pass up in this spot. His speed and tenacity offset any questions about his size (5-7, 161), similar to Cole Caufield. Schmidt’s shot is dynamic, and the 18-year-old was tied for seventh in the WHL with 40 goals in 61 games. He has a quick release off his forehand or backhand, and he also understands how to use his skating to get defenders off balance and drive around them or through them to create chances.
Morreale — Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL): Carbonneau (6-1, 191) is a prototypical power forward with plenty of grit and smarts. His skating continues to improve, as does his 200-foot game. The right-handed shot was second in the QMJHL with 89 points (46 goals, 43 assists) in 62 games, and led Blainville-Boisbriand in goals, points and 37 power-play points (16 goals, 21 assists) in 62 games. The 18-year-old is too good to pass up at this point in the draft.
