NHL
NHL Offseason
The Stanley Cup Final is underway, and there are just over three weeks until NHL free agency opens July 1.
In a shallow UFA class this year, longtime Toronto Maple Leafs star Mitch Marner is going to be the most prominent name to watch this summer.
How hard should each NHL team pursue the 28-year-old top forward this offseason?
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This week, The Athletic asked its NHL staff to put teams into four tiers — “they should do everything they can,” “they should consider it,” “they should at least look into it” and “they shouldn’t bother” — based on how they think each club should go about pursuing one of the biggest UFAs to hit the market in years.
Here’s what they said.
The Ducks are positioned to make a gigantic splash in free agency. Marner was the NHL’s fifth-leading scorer. Wanting him and getting him might be different matters, but the last Ducks player to finish that high in the scoring race was Ryan Getzlaf (with 87 points) in 2013-14. Can you imagine a top line with Marner, Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier as they chart a path to the playoffs? — Eric Stephens
The Bruins are short on game breakers after David Pastrnak. Marner would make them an instant offensive threat. He would play big minutes in all situations. The Bruins have the cap space to make the investment. — Fluto Shinzawa
Convincing Marner to sign in Buffalo might not be realistic, but the Sabres should still make the effort to signal to their fans and to the league that they’re serious about spending and winning. The fact Marner is from the Toronto area gives them an angle to pitch if he’s interested in staying closer to home. — Matthew Fairburn
A top-line winger coming off a 100-point season doesn’t just come along every day. Even if there are questions about his playoff performances, injecting the market with a player of Marner’s quality would change the expectations for the franchise. However, the sensible thing for the Flames is to continue retooling and let the young players take over when they’re ready. — Julian McKenzie
Marner would give the Hurricanes an elite point producer who fits their style. He’s a hardworking forward who is defensively responsible and can be used in all situations. Though Carolina could use an upgrade at center over another wing, the team’s ongoing pursuit of a superstar would be accomplished by landing Marner. — Cory Lavalette
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The Blackhawks haven’t given Connor Bedard an established star winger since he entered the NHL. Marner would be that and would help elevate Bedard’s game. The Blackhawks are mindful of their cap space with so many young players coming, but they have the room now. The question for Kyle Davidson is whether he can project Marner to be worth the money if his rebuild plan comes together. — Scott Powers
Before signing Brock Nelson to the three-year, $22.5 million contract extension Wednesday, there was a chance the Avalanche could’ve thrown their hat into the Marner sweepstakes. After that deal, Colorado has the biggest cap hit of any team in the league for 2025-26, with roughly $1 million in space. That all but guarantees they won’t be in on Marner. — Jesse Granger
The rebuild is over. It’s time to win. The Blue Jackets’ biggest needs are on defense and in goal, but the addition of Marner would give them one of the most dynamic groups of forwards in the league. The Blue Jackets were seventh in the NHL last season in goals scored (267 — tied with Toronto), and that was with a power play that languished for months. It would also be a major statement the Blue Jackets are in “win” mode. — Aaron Portzline
Any general manager owes it to his team to at least look into it anytime a 100-point player is available, but Dallas doesn’t have the cap space to go after Marner. And even if Jim Nill were silly enough to trade away someone like Jason Robertson to clear up room, the Stars need some high-end grit more than they need more high-end skill. The blue line is more likely to be a focus this summer, anyway. — Mark Lazerus
The Red Wings might not be just one player away from Stanley Cup contention, but Marner would nonetheless be a true difference-maker for a team hungry for a player of his caliber. Yes, he’d be another smaller forward in Detroit’s top six, but he’s also a 100-point forward who kills penalties. Those are rare. And for a team at risk of getting stuck in the middle, Marner would be a major needle-mover. — Max Bultman
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The Oilers are always interested in improving their team with players who can mesh with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Marner certainly fits that description. Realistically, though, it’s hard to figure out how the Oilers could make this work, even if Marner wanted to come to Edmonton. Draisaitl’s big contract is kicking in, McDavid is eligible for an extension, and Evan Bouchard needs a new deal. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
There are dots to connect here — and most are on the player’s end. No income tax, minimal pressure and a championship core are attractive to anyone. Bill Zito is fearless, so we shouldn’t rule out his taking a look, especially if Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad are on track to head elsewhere. If Marner is willing to take a significant discount to land in a great spot, why not have the conversation? — Sean Gentille
The Kings are still in win-now mode despite their inability to win a playoff series for a fourth consecutive year. One element they’ve lacked is an A-list star. Marner hasn’t wowed in the playoffs, but he just had his first 100-point season. He’s averaged 100 points for every 82 games he’s played the last seven years. Adding him to a deep group that has lacked top-end firepower would boost their contending chances. — Eric Stephens
When you have a player of that talent level, it’s always worth a phone call. But it’s just not realistic for the Wild to get Marner. They have around $15.6 million in cap space left, and a Marner deal would take up pretty much all of it. Minnesota needs to address its need at center, especially if it moves on from Marco Rossi (a restricted free agent whose contract is not included in that cap space). — Joe Smith
Firstly, Marner is not leaving one powder keg in Toronto only to head to another one down the road in Montreal. Secondly, the Canadiens are not at a stage of their build when throwing lots of money at a premier free agent makes a whole lot of sense, even if there are timing similarities with the New York Rangers when Jeff Gorton signed Artemi Panarin in free agency. — Arpon Basu
The choice would really be somewhere in between “at least look into it” and “shouldn’t bother,” but when you’re as awful as the Preds were last season, you need to keep an open mind about any sort of impact player. That said, it’s highly doubtful Barry Trotz would sign up for all that comes with Marner. — Joe Rexrode
The Devils probably can’t make a Marner move happen unless they clear some cap space, but they should at least be open if Marner is at all interested. He would make New Jersey’s top six elite, though signing him would probably come at the expense of some bottom-six depth because of the money Tom Fitzgerald would have to move around to make it happen. — Peter Baugh
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GM Mathieu Darche wasn’t hired to conduct a teardown and full rebuild. Islanders ownership views the team as not that far away from being better; a good way to accelerate that process is to use some of their ample cap space on a dynamic player who’s also defensively sharp. — Arthur Staple
The Rangers want a big fish, and their lineup could most certainly use someone such as Marner, but their salary-cap situation makes it difficult to envision them making a play for the winger. They’d have to clear multiple contracts and would probably have to convince either Artemi Panarin or Mika Zibanejad to waive their no-movement clauses. That doesn’t feel particularly feasible. — Peter Baugh
There are two hurdles in the way of such a scenario that sees Marner turn to the dark side: the Sens’ salary-cap picture and Marner’s interest. The Sens have around $15 million in cap space, according to PuckPedia. Ottawa still has Fabian Zetterlund and Claude Giroux to sign, among other pending UFAs. Also, we haven’t seen any smoke that suggests Marner would play for the Sens. Moving on. — Julian McKenzie
The Flyers are devoid of high-end skill, so they should at least gauge Marner’s interest. But this doesn’t seem like a fit at the moment. The Flyers are set at right wing long-term with Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny, but perhaps more crucially, they’ve always been targeting the 2026 offseason as the one in which they’re going to open their wallets. — Kevin Kurz
Marner is a great player. He’s buddies with Sidney Crosby. He and Kyle Dubas know each other very well. The Penguins need an infusion of talent and have money to spend. Sounds great, right? But they are in the early stages of a rebuild, and a $100 million contract doesn’t make sense right now. — Josh Yohe
The Sharks are further away from contender status than other teams with plenty of cap space at their disposal, but players such as Marner hitting free agency don’t come around every year. It doesn’t hurt to have ex-teammates Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau selling him on the virtues of San Jose and playing with Macklin Celebrini outside a pressure-packed cauldron. — Eric Stephens
There is one no-question bona fide elite talent in unrestricted free agency, and the Kraken don’t have that caliber of player. They have a lot of other interesting players. Serious speed at the center. Some really interesting two-way wingers with one-shot goal-scoring ability. A legitimately good, deep blue line. A solid young starter. Add in Marner, the Kraken could have a stew. — Thomas Drance
I have to imagine Marner wants to go to a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and wants to maximize his value. Though the Blues appear to be on the upswing, they also don’t seem positioned to meet those criteria. But he fits the type of player they need, and you’ll never know his interest level unless you ask, so it’s worth a phone call. Have Robert Thomas make that call since they’re friends. — Jeremy Rutherford
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Every team should at least look at the possibility of signing Marner this summer, even if it doesn’t seem plausible. It’s not often that elite talent makes it to free agency, so why not kick the tires? Can the Lightning pull it off? Almost definitely not, considering their cap outlook. But it doesn’t hurt to check. — Shayna Goldman
The writing has been on the wall for some time now that Marner would prefer to head elsewhere this summer. The Leafs tried to extend him this season and were unable to. Afterward, Marner spoke about his tenure with the team in the past tense and never expressed a desire to stay. After all this time and so much baggage, a split is what’s best for Marner and the Leafs. — Jonas Siegel
The Mammoth fell just short of a wild-card berth this season, and a big reason was that their offense couldn’t keep up with most of the playoff teams. Utah finished 21st in scoring despite Clayton Keller’s having a career year (90 points). They have a lot of intriguing prospects coming, a lot of cap space and aren’t far from being a playoff team routinely. Marner would put them over the top. — James Mirtle
Marner isn’t going to come to Vancouver, but if it were hypothetically a realistic option, the Canucks should be all in on trying to make it happen. This team wants to get back to contending and needs elite talent up front more than anything else to do so. Marner’s addition would be worth the price and whatever cap surgery the club would have to perform to make the pieces fit. — Thomas Drance
On one hand, the Golden Knights and Marner appear to be a match. Vegas checks a lot of boxes for what Marner will be looking for, and Vegas’ biggest need is scoring on the wing. On the other hand, Vegas already has several sizable cap hits, and Jack Eichel will be eligible to sign what projects to be a mega extension July 1, so adding Marner’s contract could risk becoming too top-heavy. — Jesse Granger
We just saw that the Caps can maximize distressed assets in their mid-20s. Marner’s game, say what you will about the postseason, is in better shape than that, and he’d work perfectly on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome. Washington’s cap situation is challenging — raises for Jakob Chychrun and Logan Thompson are kicking in, among other factors — but the fit makes it worth a look. — Sean Gentille
There’s no way Marner is signing in Winnipeg. It’s highly unlikely he’s their guy and highly unlikely the Jets are his team. I didn’t have the heart to commit to “they shouldn’t bother,” though, because that’s a defeatist attitude. Winnipeg should obviously have the conversations, assess Marner’s interest and consider his price. He’s a tremendous player. It’s just hard to imagine him as a UFA fit. — Murat Ates
(Top photo: Matt Slocum / Associated Press)
