Michigan forward Garrett Schifsky (17) chases the puck as Michigan and Michigan State face off in the annual Duel in the D ice hockey game at Little Caesar’s Arena in Detroit on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025.Jacob Hamilton | MLive.com
ANN ARBOR – Despite getting thumped by Michigan State 6-1 in the Duel in the D last Saturday, Michigan’s NCAA Tournament outlook improved with its series split against the second-ranked Spartans.
Sophomore forward Garrett Schifsky scoring in the final minute of Friday’s game for a 2-1 victory in East Lansing was crucial for the 12th-ranked Wolverines, who are currently on the 16-team tournament bubble.
Six spots will go to conference tournament champions, and three leagues are tracking to only have one qualifier this season because of where their teams sit in the Pairwise rankings, a formula the NCAA selection committee uses when determining the participants of the tournament.
Michigan is 12th in the Pairwise, which is inside the bubble, although there’s always a chance for an upset in the Big Ten, Hockey East or National Collegiate Hockey Conference tournaments to steal more auto-bids.
That’s why these final four games in the regular season are critical for the Wolverines (16-12-2, 10-9-1 Big Ten). Their grueling stretch to end the year continues this weekend with a home series against No. 4 Minnesota, which is five points behind MSU for first in the Big Ten with two games in hand.
The stakes are high in the series versus the Gophers, which begins Friday at 7 p.m. at Yost Ice Arena. Michigan has a 72% chance of reaching a fifth straight NCAA Tournament, according to the College Hockey News' Probability Matrix, but those odds will change depending on what happens against Minnesota (21-6-3, 12-4-2).
Beating the Gophers will be no easy task – they swept the first series against Michigan in Minneapolis – but a Wolverines win(s) would carry more weight in the Pairwise because of Minnesota’s standing. Michigan jumped from No. 14 to No. 12 with the split against MSU, leaping Arizona State, which went to overtime in both games against No. 6 Denver, and Quinnipiac, which went 1-1 against unranked Clarkson and St. Lawrence.
Michigan then closes the season Feb. 27-28 at Ohio State, which is No. 9 in the Pairwise and in third place in the Big Ten – six points ahead of the Wolverines with two games in hand.
“We’re getting down to the wire now,” Michigan junior forward T.J. Hughes, who is riding an NCAA-long 13-game point streak, said this week. “Every game is so crucial. I think the beauty of playing in the Big Ten is you play top-10 teams almost every night. Another huge weekend for us. We get we get a sweep, and we’re jumping again.”
The Wolverines could move ahead of UMass-Lowell, which has a home-and-home against Northeastern (No. 32 in the Pairwise) this weekend, but Arizona State and UMass are right on their heels.
The Sun Devils are on the road at Minnesota Duluth (No. 40), while UMass faces No. 1 Boston College. Both teams can pull back ahead of Michigan this week depending on results.
But the Wolverines are only focusing on what they can control.
“We know the way we want to play, and we’ve seen what it looks like when we play that way,” defenseman Luca Fantilli said. “We got away from it last weekend (in the Duel in the D). Just getting back to those things that we were sloppy on, like getting in the in the o zone a little more, just all around the rink could have been better. We’re just trying to stick to the plan.”
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