DiStefano's pick: Goals have been hard to come by for the most part in this series, and bettors should expect more of the same in Game 6.
The Battle of Ontario continues tonight with Game 6 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators as the series shifts back to Canadian Tire Centre. TBS will have live coverage beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Scoring has been scarce in this series, and my Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions expect another close, tightly contested game with a low total.
Find out why in free NHL picks for this Thursday, May 1 tilt.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have had the Ottawa Senators on the ropes for two straight games but have yet to deliver the knockout blow.
Can they do it tonight? I believe they can.
The Leafs have been the better team in the last two games but have made two gaffes on the power play, resulting in backbreaking, costly shorthanded goals for Ottawa.
If the Leafs limit the mistakes on special teams, buckle down, and be more direct with the puck on the offensive end, I expect them to win tonight and advance to the second round for just the second time in nine years.
My Maple Leafs vs Senators pick: Under 5.5 (-120 at Sports Interaction)
The playoff demons are getting louder and louder for the Maple Leafs as they’ve failed to eliminate the Sens in two straight opportunities. Is the third time the charm?
Perhaps.
However, these games have been fairly difficult for both teams as each squad is playing sound defensively, leading to very low-event and low-scoring hockey. I expect a similarly styled contest tonight in a must-win game for both sides.
Each team has limited the opposition offensively at 5-on-5. Toronto is averaging six high-danger chances per game, while the Sens have averaged eight and only registered five in Game 5. The Under is 3-1 since Game 1 with an average of 5.25 goals per game, many of which are coming via special teams.
The 5-on-5 offense has been quiet on both sides as they’ve combined for just 12 goals through five games in that situation.
The goaltending has been excellent as well. Linus Ullmark has a .913 SV% in the last four games and is coming off a 29-save shutout performance. Furthermore, Stolarz’ 2.25 GAA is the fifth-best mark in the playoffs among all starters.
Part of that can also be attributed to the defense, which ranks third and sixth in the postseason in shots against and has combined for 183 blocked shots.
I expect these guys to put their bodies on the line again tonight, limiting as many shots and scoring opportunities as possible.
Under 5.5
John Tavares 3+ shots on goal
Maple Leafs moneyline
Scoring chances have been limited in this series, but John Tavares seems to have a knack for finding areas in the ice to get shots off and generate opportunities. He’s hit this mark in three straight and four out of the five games throughout this series.
The Leafs are the betting underdogs for the first time in this series after losing two straight, but I expect them to regain control and clean up their special teams mistakes to win the game.
Nobody in Toronto wants to see this series reach seven games. Nobody.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Senators are 9-1 on the spread (+1.5) in the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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