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The Toronto Maple Leafs look to go up 3-0 in Game 3 against the Senators as their first-round series shifts to Ottawa.
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Tonight's Game 3 is played at the Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata, Ontario, a suburb of Ottawa. It's the first time since 2017 the Senators are hosting a playoff game.
The Canadian Tire Centre has a capacity of 17,997.
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Craig Berube has an interesting decision to make ahead of Game 3: Should he make changes to a lineup that hung on to win Game 2 and has the Toronto Maple Leafs ahead 2-0 in the first-round series over the Ottawa Senators?
Coaches typically prefer to keep a winning lineup intact, and Berube seemed to be leaning that way on Wednesday, though the Leafs coach added he hadn’t “made my mind up yet on that.”
There are legitimate reasons to change course, slightly, as the series shifts to Ottawa for Games 3 and 4.
The Senators have largely owned the five-on-five territorial space so far, managing 50(!) more shot attempts than the Leafs (127-77). The Leafs have won where it matters most in those minutes, though — on the scoreboard — outscoring Ottawa 5-2. (Credit, in part, goes to Anthony Stolarz, who owns a .957 save percentage in those spots, vastly outplaying Linus Ullmark, who has an .848 save percentage at five-on-five through two games.)
The first and fourth lines have delivered strong performances so far and should be left intact.
It’s the middle of the lineup that has been problematic and worthy of scrutiny for Berube and his staff.
Read more below.
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Should the Maple Leafs change their lineup for Game 3 against the Senators?
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For all the heightened energy the Leafs brought through Game 1 and the first period of Game 2, their second period lull is notable. We knew they wouldn’t be able to sustain their aggressive forechecking and high-scoring play for every period of every playoff game, sure. But the dropoff was still likely tough for Berube to stomach. His team was slower to pucks and struggled to gain offensive-zone pressure.
“We didn’t make plays,” Craig Berube said of the Leafs’ play in the period. “We just looked like we were protecting the lead.”
The Leafs generated just one high-danger chance at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick, and only two scoring chances. A needless offensive-zone penalty by Nick Robertson accentuated the lack of focus the Leafs showed in the frame. The Leafs winger saw his ice time reduced after the penalty resulted in a power play goal.
But even without the bad penalty, the Leafs were somewhat lucky to escape the period holding the lead. There is undoubtedly a feeling in the Leafs coach’s room that they escaped some danger in Game 2. Adjustments to the lineup feel more possible than they did 24 hours ago.
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The Senators might have to consider a line change or two ahead of Game 3, considering how their ‘3-D Line’ (David Perron, Drake Batherson and Dylan Cozens) looked at five-on-five.
The trio was one of their most effective lines after they came together following the trade deadline. In Game 2, they were arguably the Sens’ worst.
They were dominated at five-on-five in the first period whether you’re looking at it through chances allowed, expected goals, scoring chances or high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. The line ended the first period with a 0 percent Corsi share and finished the game with a lowly 25.0 percent Corsi rating.
Cozens and Batherson looked better with Fabian Zetterlund, who found himself playing with the line when the Sens were at four-on-four and for parts of the third period. By comparison, Zetterlund-Cozens-Batherson operated at a 64.71 percent Corsi share and looked more dangerous. Zetterlund was always going to be a prime candidate to get more minutes if the Sens needed to shake up their lines. Sure enough, Senators coach Travis Green did that. But despite the changes, that line was on the ice when Domi scored the overtime winner.
“To play a road game like that was very encouraging for our team,” Green said. “There is no reason to panic. We probably deserved a better fate but that’s playoff hockey.”
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The Senators started slow with their high-danger chance generation and expected goals. But they improved through the second period onward.
Two goals at the net front put the Senators behind the eight-ball within the first half of the first period. Both goals came with Nick Jensen on the ice. He was tied up in front of the net on the first goal, with Drake Batherson losing Morgan Rielly. On the second, John Tavares banked the puck off of him.
As the Senators continue to work on making life difficult for Stolarz, they were beaten handily in their blue paint to start the game. Toronto led 4-2 in high-danger chances in the first period, despite the Senators leading in shots 10-7, and dominated with a 76.31 expected goal share.
But the Senators flipped the script in the second period with a 5-1 advantage in high-danger chances before Brady Tkachuk’s first playoff goal gave his team life. And while losing the high-danger chance battle in the third, the Senators outpaced Toronto with a 68.01 percent expected-goals share despite only having four shots on net.
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It’s hard to overstate the importance of Anthony Stolarz to the Leafs’ win, to their chances in the series and, just maybe, a deep playoff run.
The 6-foot-6 monster of a goaltender provides not just the composure the Leafs have long lacked in past playoff series, but the attitude of a hardened winner.
Stolarz saw almost everything thrown at him through traffic and used his combination of athleticism and size to make 26 saves in the game. He ended up allowing just two goals for the second game in a row.
“He’s a gamer,” Domi said. “Always has been a gamer.”
It doesn’t feel that long ago that there was a debate over who would start in the playoffs for the Leafs: Stolarz or Joseph Woll.
Now, there’s zero debate over who is winning the goaltending battle in this series. Senators goalie Linus Ullmark looked off his game in the first period while Stolarz was dialed in.
And that attitude? That manifested in Stolarz taking a shot at public enemy No. 1 in Toronto — Senators forward Ridly Greig. Stolarz remembered the run Greig took at him in Game 1 and gave him multiple whacks with his stick before hammering Greig with his shoulder. Somehow, both Greig and Stolarz received minor penalties, which made the whole melee worth it for the Leafs.
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This season, Max Domi hasn’t contributed the same kind of offence that he did last year. But for the time being, none of that matters. Domi cemented himself in Leafs lore with an overtime winner by doing what Leafs coach Craig Berube called for him to do all season: shoot the puck more.
Domi had one of the first chances of a tense overtime frame. He then stayed with the play and darted around the Senators’ defence to fire a quick shot past Linus Ullmark.
Domi has promised that his best self would emerge come playoff time. Just under four minutes into overtime, he made good on that promise.
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By Joshua Kloke and Julian McKenzie
It wasn’t pretty, but the Toronto Maple Leafs will head east along the 401 to Kanata up 2-0 in their first-round series against the Ottawa Senators.
Morgan Rielly and John Tavares scored first-period goals and Max Domi sent Scotiabank Arena into a frenzy with his overtime winner as the Leafs ultimately hung on for a 3-2 win.
The last time the Leafs went up 2-0 in a playoff series? Way back in 2002, in the first round against the New York Islanders.
The Leafs had to rely heavily on one of their most important players of their season, goaltender Anthony Stolarz. As the Leafs’ pace slowed and they struggled to generate decent scoring chances in the second period, the Senators took over the game. Yet Ottawa struggled to beat Stolarz, who ended up making 26 saves. There’s a case to be made that the Leafs were lucky to get to overtime and get the win.
The Senators deserve credit for the pushback they showed. This series could get more interesting as it heads to an arena that hasn’t seen playoff hockey since 2017.
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Will the Maple Leafs keep rolling tonight, or will the Senators find a way to get back in this series?
How far can the winner of this series go in the playoffs?
Send us your answers to these questions, or any thoughts you have, or any questions of your own, or just say hello!
You can email us at live@theathletic.com or, if you're a subscriber to The Athletic, you can also join the discussion page for this game here.
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Game 3 of the Maple Leafs and Senators is on ESPN2 in the United States. John Buccigross (play-by-play), Kevin Weekes (color) and Dave Jackson (rules analyst) will be on the call.
In Canada, the Battle of Ontario is on Sportsnet/CBC. Chris Cuthbert (play-by-play), Craig Simpson (color) and Kyle Bukauskas (reporter) will be calling this game.
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Puck drop for Game 3 between the Maple Leafs and Senators is 7 p.m. ET. That's 4 p.m. PT.
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Greetings hockey fans! Welcome to The Athletic's live coverage of Game 3 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Max Domi scored the OT winner in Game 2 to put the Leafs up 2-0 in the series. Can Toronto take a commanding 3-0 series lead or will Ottawa get its first win of the playoffs in front of their fans?
Follow along as we build up toward tonight's game.
