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🏆 Playoffs
Last updated: April 24, 2025 8:02 AM EDT • 6 min read X Social Google News Link
Thursday’s Game 3 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) represents a must-win scenario for the home side. Our Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction, NHL picks, and player props analyze the chances of the home team cutting the series deficit to one game.
Despite being down 0-2 in the series, the Senators are the marginal favorites at our best sports betting sites ahead of the crucial contest.
📡 How to watch Maple Leafs vs. Senators live (Game 3)
📅 Thursday, April 24
🕗 7 p.m. ET
📍 Canadian Tire Centre
📺 CBC, ESPN2 | 🛜 ESPN+, Sportsnet+
📈 Check out our Maple Leafs vs. Senators matchup page for full team stats and betting line history.
✅ Against the spread pick: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+220 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Senators (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 5.5 goals (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
As much of a must-win without being an actual must-win, the Sens will be as desperate in Game 3 as a father racing against time to attend the birth of his son or daughter.
I expect the Senators to relentlessly pressure the Maple Leafs from the opening puck drop, attempting to get the seventh man – the sold-out Canadian Tire Centre crowd – vociferously behind them.
Excluding the opening 10 minutes, Travis Green’s team concocted in Game 2 the type of performance conducive to a winning formula. Ottawa has dictated 5-on-5 proceedings for the most part, securing a 64% Corsi rating in Game 1 and 61% in Game 2, according to MoneyPuck.com.
Obviously, that stat in silo doesn’t guarantee results.
The Maple Leafs have dominated the special teams battle, scoring four goals on seven attempts. That’s the first thing that must change for Ottawa to win Game 3. The Maple Leafs cannot be afforded extra-man opportunities, and the Sens – 1-for-5 thus far – must make the most of theirs.
Fortunately, Ottawa is palpably superior with the man advantage at home, with the sixth-best unit (27.7%) during the regular season.
While dominating Corsi is a promising first step, the Sens must couple that with creating more high-grade scoring opportunities. The 1.26 expected goals 5-on-5 in Game 2 won’t suffice. The boost from their home crowd will facilitate more offense, and with Linus Ullmark appearing to have finally settled down, I like the Sens to get off the snide in Game 3.
✅ Best bet: Senators ML (-110 via bet365)
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Batherson will be devastated about his giveaway that led to Max Domi’s Game 2 overtime winner. I expect him to quickly learn from that catastrophic error, trying to make up for it with a spirited offensive display.
That should include Batherson letting loose on Anthony Stolarz, who must be tested early and often. Batherson hit the Over in Game 1 but had just one shot in Game 2. bet365 offers the longest odds (+132) of our best NHL betting sites, where a $10 bet would profit $13.20.
💰 Best odds: +132 via bet365
Tkachuk is the Sens’ key driving engine, which is even more pronounced in the postseason. I backed him to secure a point and secure at least four shots on goal, both of which he accomplished. I don’t expect any regression in front of a feverish home crowd witnessing their first playoff game in almost eight years. The Sens captain is the type of beast to feed off of that frenzied atmosphere.
The odds are a bit expensive, but it’s worth it on this one.
💰 Best odds: -130 via DraftKings
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In the first two games, Matthews notched three assists on home ice and fired nine shots on goal. In Game 1, he had 1.13 expected goals, six shots on target, and 10 shot attempts, doing everything but potting one. I can’t see him being held off the scoresheet for much longer. He’ll have a much better chance of scoring if the Maple Leafs get a few power plays. Either way, I like him to find a way in Game 3 in a losing effort.
💰 Best odds: +140 via FanDuel
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🧪 Want to make your own SGP? Check out our NEW parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay.
Latest odds Maple Leafs vs. Senators from our best sports betting sites.
Opening odds via BetMGM.
Ready to place your hockey bets today? Here are the best NHL betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the Stanley Cup playoffs:
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