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CFP Round 1
Last Updated: December 14, 2024 8:43 AM EST • 2 min 52 sec read.
It hasn’t mattered where the Detroit Red Wings play lately, as the losses accumulate whether they’re at home or on the road.
With six defeats in their last seven games and in 10 of 14, the Red Wings are scraping the bottom of the barrel as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday at Little Caesars Arena (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+, Sportsnet).
The visiting Maple Leafs are playing with the consistency befitting a Stanley Cup odds favorite, winning nine of their last 12.
Detroit bested Toronto 3-1 in the first installment of this matchup in 2024-25. But now head coach Derek Lalonde will need to get by without Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon, and the former is mainly responsible for keeping the Red Wings competitive. 
Our Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings prediction focuses on William Nylander as our best bet while expecting Toronto to finally score at least four goals. 
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: +110 via Betway | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Nylander leads the Maple Leafs in shots (102), largely due to Auston Matthews’ injury absence. The diminutive forward is a perennial threat to hit the Over on his shot total, which is almost always set at 3.5.
The sniper registered at least five shots on goal in two of the last three games, averaging six in the two Overs. He produced a three-game Under streak beforehand, but Nylander has a knack for increasing his production against the Red Wings. He fired at least four shots on goal in six of his last eight games against Detroit. 
The silky smooth forward was extremely productive against the Anaheim Ducks, and so were linemates Max Pacioretty and John Tavares. They tallied 14 shots on goal, scored all three goals, and finished 77.2% of the expected goals when they were on the ice. 
Detroit concedes the fifth-most shots per game (31.1) and is tied for the fifth-most on home ice (30.4).
Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs’ shot production ranks markedly better in enemy rinks. They fire the 10th-fewest shots per game while inside Scotiabank Arena (28.4) but the sixth-most on their travels (29.4).
The matchup against Ville Husso favors the Maple Leafs and Nylander, who should be more inclined to fire on sight against the Red Wings’ third-string netminder. 
The plus-money odds are another appealing factor, and a winning $10 bet will lead to an $11 profit. 
NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%
It’s been five games since the Maple Leafs lit the lamp at least four times.
And while Craig Berube’s defense-first system isn’t exactly conducive to an explosion of goals, Toronto is facing a team devoid of confidence and without its top two goaltenders.
Husso was good in three of his previous four starts while allowing three or fewer goals. However, he was chased from the net against Buffalo in his last start after giving up three goals on seven shots.
His confidence may be somewhat fragile heading into Saturday’s tilt. Additionally, the Red Wings allowed four-plus goals in two of their last three home encounters and four of the previous seven overall. 
A winning $10 bet will translate to a $10 profit. 
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