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🏇 Preakness Stakes
Last updated: March 2, 2025 11:48 AM EST • 5 min read
The Pittsburgh Penguins are reeling, winning just one of their last six games entering this home affair against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
That’s about as bad of a matchup as Pittsburgh could have asked for, as the Maple Leafs are red-hot ahead of this game 1 p.m ET (TNT) from PPG Paints Arena.
Toronto is 7-1-0 since Feb. 1, while the Pens are 2-5-1 in their last eight games. Our Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prediction doesn’t see the status quo changing as we expect another Toronto road victory. 
Here are my best Maple Leafs vs. Penguins predictions, expert picks, and best bets tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our NHL picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NHL.
I’m predicting the Maple Leafs will beat the Penguins in regulation with a total of six goals or fewer. 
There’s no escaping the fact that the Penguins are fighting a losing battle. Expect general manager Kyle Dubas to make changes before the March 7 trade deadline. They’ve lost five of their last six games and have the seventh-worst points percentage on home ice (.516). 
As if their current free fall isn’t bad enough, the Pens face the Maple Leafs, who are a perfect 4-0-0 since the 4 Nations break, in the second game of a back-to-back set. The Pens lost 3-2 to Boston on Saturday, extending their losing streak at PPG Paints Arena to five games.
Sunday’s game is the Pens’ sixth in nine days. That’s a grueling schedule for any team, let alone one desperately struggling at both ends of the rink.
Saturday’s loss to the Boston Bruins represented the 12th time in the last 13 games they have failed to score four goals. Goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic finally had a decent game in goal, but the Pens were undone by an inability to solve Joonas Korpisalo. 
The Maple Leafs, among the Stanley Cup odds favorites, have shown resilience and an ability to win in various ways since the NHL schedule recommenced. The Buds were dominated territorially against the New York Rangers, outshot 35-17. They also lost the expected goals battle. Fortunately for the Leafs, Anthony Stolarz was at his unerring best, coming up with timely save after timely save.
Preceeding Friday’s game, the Buds scored at least five in their previous three games. The last time it visited PPG Paints Arena, Toronto endured a woeful performance, losing 5-2. I expect Craig Berube’s side to be dialed in against a fatigued and fed-up Pens team. 
Best odds: -130 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $7.69)
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The Pens have scored more than three goals in one of their last 13 games, while the Maple Leafs have won six of their last seven on the road. Also, Sunday marks the Pens’ sixth game in nine days, so I’m predicting the Maple Leafs will win 4-1. 
Correct score odds: +1500 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $150)
Here is my best Maple Leafs vs. Penguins player prop bet tonight. You can also check out our NEW NHL player prop odds tool for the latest NHL odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.  
Statistically and based on current form, the odds for Matthews to score against the Pens shouldn’t be so short. He has one goal in his previous 10 games and none in the last three. He fired his only goal in that stint into an empty net. However, like our best sportsbooks, I have a feeling a goal is not far off.
On multiple occasions, Matthews almost scored against the Rangers and looked threatening for extended periods. He’s facing a forlorn, tired Penguins team whose netminders have struggled recently. I’m betting he’ll score Sunday or Monday against the San Jose Sharks, possibly in both. 
The shorter odds make this a three-star play. 
Best odds: -105 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $9.52)
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Here are the latest NHL odds for Maple Leafs vs. Penguins.
Here is the latest injury report for Maple Leafs vs. Penguins, which updates in real time.
📅 Date: Saturday, March 2
🕗 Time: 1 p.m. ET
📍 Location: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh)
📺 TV: TNT
💻 Streaming: Fubo, Sportsnet+
The visiting Maple Leafs are -192 favorites, while the Penguins are the +158 underdogs. 
The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the Under at -128 and the Over +104. 
Today’s Maple Leafs vs. Penguins game at PPG Paints Arena starts at 1 p.m. ET on TNT. 
Looking to bet on the NHL tonight? Here are our best NHL betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of tonight’s game.
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