Both the Maple Leafs and the Panthers have exceled at generating high-danger scoring chances in this series, and right from the opening whistle to boot. Look for more first-period fireworks tonight, per our NHL betting picks.
NHL
We have two games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including Game 4 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena.
We’ve seen nine first-period goals through the first three games of this series. My Maple Leafs vs. Panthers predictions and NHL picks expect that trend to continue on Sunday, May 11.
The Florida Panthers got themselves back into this series with a win in Game 3, cutting Toronto’s series lead in half.
The Leafs may lead the series, but the Panthers have performed better according to Natural Stat Trick’s underlying metrics. Florida has won 56% of the overall minutes and has controlled the play at 5-on-5 with 63.5% of the expected goals.
The Buds got the bounces in the first two games, and now the pendulum is swinging toward Florida.
Additionally, the Panthers have been much stronger on home ice this season with a 29-13-2 record and a +27 goal differential.
I believe the Cats even the series tonight.
My Maple Leafs vs Panthers pick: Over 1.5 1P (-130 at Sports Interaction)
The Florida Panthers seek to even the series tonight as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs at Amerant Arena for Game 4 of the best-of-seven.
Toronto won the first two games, but dropped Game 3 to the Panthers after Florida erased a 2-0 first-period deficit, ultimately beating the Buds 5-4 in overtime to give the Cats some life in this series.
The Maple Leafs have been quick starters throughout the entire playoffs. They lead the league with 12 goals in the first period, while the Panthers rank third.
This has led to high-scoring first periods thus far in the series. The Leafs and Panthers have combined for nine first-period goals so far, averaging three per game. I expect this trend to continue tonight as I make my best bet for this game being the first-period total going Over 1.5 goals.
A significant reason for my belief in this bet is the fact that both starting goaltenders have struggled mightily throughout this series.
It doesn’t appear that Anthony Stolarz is ready to return to the crease tonight, so Joseph Woll will get the start again. He’s struggled considerably in this series with a 3.99 GAA and a .869 SV%.
Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been any better, as he’s allowed 13 goals in this series for a 4.10 GAA and a rather pedestrian .840 SV%.
Additionally, the Leafs and Panthers have combined for 77 high-danger chances in this series. It has resulted in 12 high-danger goals as both Bobrovksy and Woll have a .745 and a .773 HDSV%, respectively.
Over 1.5 1P
Maple Leafs +1.5
John Tavares 2+ shots on goal
All three games have been decided by one goal, and Toronto is 3-0 ATS so far in the series, so I’ll pair Maple Leafs +1.5 with my best bet to start this SGP.
For the final leg of my SGP, I’m looking at the shots market, and I like John Tavares to record 2+ shots on net tonight. He leads the Leafs with 12 shots through the first three games of the series, recording 2+ shots in each of the three games against Florida so far and seven of the nine games during this playoff run.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Maple Leafs have an NHL-best 27-13-5 record on the road this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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