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The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to host the Florida Panthers, the reigning Stanley Cup champions, in Game 1 of the second round of the playoffs.
The Maple Leafs are in the second round for only the second time since 2004 after a 4-2 series win over the Ottawa Senators, while the Panthers are back in the fold following a convincing five-game series win over their intra-state rival Tampa Bay.
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Between the end of a first-round series with the Ottawa Senators and the start of Monday’s second-round matchup against the Florida Panthers, Mitch Marner’s life changed forever.
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ forward became a father at 8:49 a.m. on Sunday when his wife, Stephanie, gave birth to a healthy baby boy: Miles Daniel Marner.
“I’m a lucky guy, for sure,” Marner said.
GO FURTHER
Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner on becoming a dad mid-playoffs: ‘I’m a lucky guy’
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Given the general Canadian drought, it’s no surprise that the three Canadian teams also have the longest Cup droughts of the eight teams still alive.
The Oilers last lifted the Cup in 1990, Toronto’s last triumph was all the way back in 1967 and Winnipeg has never won the Cup. The Jets won the Presidents’ Trophy (best regular season record) this season for the first time, but are still only ahead of Washington in the futures odds.
The first round of the NHL playoffs went out with a bang with two third-period comebacks in Game 7s, including a last-second tying goal for Winnipeg on Sunday night. While Winnipeg and Dallas are probably still buzzing from those dramatic wins, the second round starts tonight. Ahead of the conference semifinals, the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes lead the odds to win the Stanley Cup.
The defending champion Panthers dispatched in-state foe Tampa Bay in five games and are +425 to lift the Cup on BetMGM. Carolina, which took out New Jersey in five games, is right behind at +475. Those odds for favorites paint the picture of a wide-open playoff field. That was the case before the playoffs started, and it’s still true now.
The Washington Capitals have the longest odds of the eight teams remaining, and even the Capitals are only +1000. Compare that to the NBA, where only three teams have odds shorter than +1000. The NHL playoffs are always full of surprises, which is reflected in the odds, but this year in particular has no clear-cut favorite or top team.
This second-round series features the two best teams in the Atlantic Division. Toronto and/or Florida occupied first place for 174 of 178 days this season, including every day since Oct. 12.
We’ve brought up the Leafs goalie a lot over the last week or so, but with good reason. After Game 2, Stolarz pitched an .876 save percentage through the Leafs’ final four games of the first round against the Senators. That’s a stark difference from the goalie who put up a .926 save percentage through the regular season — tops in the NHL. Stolarz looked to falter, only slightly, as he dealt with a workload he’d never experienced before.
Now he’s going to be matched up both against his former team and Sergei Bobrovsky, a goalie who has a recent history of stopping pucks amid a heavy workload. Was the three days off for Stolarz enough to reset? Game 1 could reveal a lot. And, possibly, whether Joseph Woll will see his first playoff action this year.
Given Florida’s apparent advantage at five on five, the Leafs may not be able to win this series if their power play can’t keep it rolling. It was arguably the deciding factor in round one against Ottawa.
Something to be mindful of: The Panthers own a very aggressive penalty kill, including a first forward tandem of Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart that will strike if given the chance. Florida buried 12 shorthanded goals during the regular season, second-most in the league. The Leafs surrendered two shorties to the Sens in the first round. They went 1-9 on the power play against the Panthers during the regular season.
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Jason I: “This Florida team is very, very, close to the scary ‘dynasty’ moniker. Their stars are in their primes, they already have a pretty impressive three-year run under their belts and if they defend it again this year….let's just say it's a good time to be a Panthers fan.”
Frank P: “Florida is one tough team to beat, no doubt. The Leafs are definitely a better team than they were last year; underdogs, but they have a shot.”
Peter G: “A championship team needs a little luck here and there. If the Panthers hit the post as many times as the Leafs did against the Senators, that could be the difference right there! The Leafs have had plenty of bad luck. Maybe The Hockey Gods will shine on them at long last.”
Share your thoughts by emailing live@theathletic.com.
Anthony Stolarz put up sparkling numbers in Florida last year, with 21.7 goals saved above expected in 27 games, which technically beat Sergei Bobrovsky’s 15.8 in 58 games. But once the playoffs rolled around, that didn’t matter. Bobrovsky was The Guy for the Panthers on their way to a Stanley Cup.
With the Leafs, Stolarz got the chance to prove that he could be Their Guy. He was an ace in the regular season for the second straight year, and that’s why the model gives him the edge here. Only Connor Hellebuyck has saved more goals above expected than Stolarz over the past two seasons. But thriving in the regular season doesn’t always translate to the playoffs — Bobrovksy had to learn that the hard way. Over the last two seasons, Playoff Bob has taken on a new meaning; he is the star the Panthers need when the pressure rises.
Stolarz has to prove he can match that, especially in a high-volume starter’s role he’s unfamiliar with. Four quality starts in a six-game series against Ottawa is a good start, but this matchup against his former teammates is the test.
A plus-eight Net Rating separates the Panthers and Maple Leafs, but there are some differences in the process to get to that point.
At five-on-five, the Panthers have more oomph below the surface. Florida was one of the best regular-season teams in the league for a reason; they generated a ton of quality offense and were stingy in their own end. The Leafs, after changing how they play this year, created less offense than the Panthers but converted on a higher clip of their chances. Toronto’s goaltending also gave them stronger results on the other end of the ice, even though their expected goal suppression wasn’t as stout.
The Leafs amped up their defense against the Senators, but containing Florida is a different challenge. The Panthers’ defense was tight and took away the Lightning’s space. If Toronto is going to cut through that, the team will have to pick up the pace from Round 1.
The Panthers have more substance to their five-on-five offense, but the Leafs have more on the power play. Toronto’s five-forward power play unit was dynamic down the stretch and into Round 1. But the Panthers’ penalty kill was a major strength in the regular season and lights out in Round 1. That brings their Defensive Rating up to a plus-30, which just edges out Toronto. But the Maple Leafs’ penalty kill is no pushover, either. If they can contain Florida’s power play, it could neutralize the special teams battle and put extra emphasis on five-on-five play.
The Panthers are favored — no shock there. What may be a bit confusing is the margin, one that calls for a tighter series than many likely anticipated between the defending champions and a team that struggles to control play.
While the model likes the Leafs a lot more than their expected goal rate thanks to their strong goaltending, team defense and having four offensive stars (all things Florida can match, mind you), the big thing here is home ice advantage.
Home teams won a lot more than usual this season (56 percent compared to 53 percent the last three years) and that trend carried over to the playoffs where the home side has a staggering 29-15 record. Toronto’s best chance in this series comes from taking care of business at home where the Leafs were 27-13-1 during the season, while the Panthers were 20-19-2 on the road. If home ice was flipped, Florida’s chances would rise to 59 percent.
The Panthers are the better team, but Toronto’s ability to ‘win ugly’ under Craig Berube could make things tougher than it seems at first glance for Florida.
We’d love to hear from you before today’s game. You can get involved by sending an email to live@theathletic.com.
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Tonight's game will air on ESPN in the U.S.
In Canada, it will air on Sportsnet, CBC and TVA Sports.
NHL fans can also stream the Maple Leafs vs. Panthers series live on Fubo.
Today’s game is scheduled to start at 8pm ET, 5pm PT. The full schedule for the series is as follows:
*If necessary
Good afternoon and welcome to our live coverage of today’s clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Maple Leafs have advanced in the playoffs for only the second time since 2004 with a Game 6 win over the Ottawa Senators, while the Panthers are back in the fold following a convincing 4-1 series win over intra-state rival Tampa Bay.
Join us as we begin counting down to today’s game and don’t forget that you can get involved by emailing live@theathletic.com.
