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NFL Thanksgiving
Last Updated: November 30, 2024 12:24 PM EST • 2 min 34 sec read.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are expected to have superstar sniper Auston Matthews back from injury tonight when they visit the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is set for 7 p.m. ET (Sportsnet/CBC/ESPN+).
High-scoring games are a common Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction when these rivals meet, and for good reason. Seven of the last 10 contests between the teams have seen at least seven goals scored.
Both teams enter tonight’s clash in strong form, with Toronto going 7-2 in its last nine despite Matthews being sidelined, while Tampa Bay has earned points in seven of its last nine (5-2-2.)
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%
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With Matthews sidelined for the past nine games with a mysterious upper-body injury, the Leafs have been forced to tighten things up and try to win lower-scoring games.
It’s been an effective tactic, with Toronto going 7-2 during that stretch despite failing to score more than three goals in regulation time (excluding empty netters) in any of those games. Before Wednesday’s 5-1 loss at Florida, the Leafs had held nine straight opponents to three goals or fewer.
However, Toronto’s recent defensive success must be taken with a grain of salt.
Not only did many of those games come against lower-scoring teams like the Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings, Montreal Canadiens, and Utah Hockey Club, but seven of those nine came at home. The Leafs have been much leakier on the road of late, giving up at least four goals in five of their last seven as visitors.
Tampa Bay is averaging 3.55 goals per game this year at home, potting at least four in five of its last five at Amalie Arena. The Bolts have also scored at least three in eight of their last nine at home versus the Leafs, a big reason the Over is a sizzling 11-1-1 in the last 13 meetings in Tampa. I don’t see much reason to expect anything different tonight.
NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +140 via Betway | Implied probability: 41.7%
Despite missing four games earlier this month with a lower-body injury, Point enters today’s action two goals behind Florida’s Sam Reinhart for the league lead in tallies. He’s also in the midst of arguably the hottest scoring run of his career, finding the net in seven of eight games in November — including the overtime winner last night in Nashville.
Point’s 41.7 shooting percentage this month obviously isn’t sustainable, but at +140 odds, I’ll take my chances on his hot run lasting at least one more game. Point has scored in each of his last four games versus Toronto playing on Tampa’s top line alongside long-time Leafs killer Nikita Kucherov, who has 46 points in 36 career games versus the Buds.
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