The Toronto Maple Leafs have taken a more defensive approach in recent games, and tonight will be no different.
NHL
We’ve got 12 games on the betting slate tonight, including an Original Six clash between the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
Goals will be hard to come by with two hard-nosed teams that defend well, and my Maple Leafs vs. Bruins predictions side with the Under.
Find out more in my free NHL picks for this January 4 matchup.
My Leafs pick
Under 6.5 (-150 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter tonight’s game on a two-game winning streak with a pair of low-event wins over the New York Islanders. A total of seven goals were scored in the two games.
Meanwhile, the Boston Bruins have lost their last two games, scoring three goals total.
Offense has been hard to come by for both the Leafs and Bruins this season. Boston ranks 29th in the NHL in goals per game, averaging just 2.58 per contest, while the Leafs rank 14th, netting 3.08.
The two teams combine for an average of 5.66 goals per game, and Toronto will be without three-time rocket winner Auston Matthews for a sixth straight game.
Defensively, however, both teams have been solid and are in the top half of the league in goals against per game. The Bruins rank 15th, allowing just 3.00 goals a night, while the Leafs rank eighth, averaging 2.74 goals per game with the third-best save percentage in the league this season.
Joseph Woll is the projected starter for Toronto. He was a phenom against Boston in the playoffs last season with a 1.78 GAA and a .933 SV%. He’s followed up that playoff campaign with a solid sophomore season, sporting a .917 SV% and a 2.36 goals against. He’s won all three of his starts since the Christmas break, surrendering just four goals in the process.
On the other side of the ice, Jeremy Swayman is rounding into form after a tough start to the year. In his last four games, he’s got a .939 SV% and has allowed just five total goals in that span.
So, considering the Leafs and Bruins’ lack of scoring punch and elite goaltending, the Under feels like the strong play in this game.
Historically, these two teams play each other hard and tight, resulting in low-scoring games. Additionally, the Under is 2-7-1 in the last 10 meetings.
Under 6.5
Bobby McMann 2+ shots
Max Pacioretty 2+ shots
Bobby McMann is coming off a game with two goals on six shots and he should be trigger-happy on that suddenly dangerous third line. He’s also near automatic to put two or more shots on net, cashing the prop in 20 of his last 23 games.
Max Pacioretty had five shots in the win against the Islanders and has combined for nine shots in the two earlier meetings against the Bruins. He’s averaging 2.27 shots per game over his last 10 outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Maple Leafs are 15-7 on the moneyline on home ice. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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