Our Mammoth vs. Oilers predictions aren't so sure Utah will be able to keep pace with Connor McDavid & Co.
NHL
The Edmonton Oilers have dropped six of their first 10 games, but they’ve played better than the results would suggest.
My Mammoth vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks are banking on the home team righting the ship against a Utah squad poised for regression.
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Mammoth vs Oilers Best bet: Oilers moneyline (-155)
The Utah Mammoth are a good, young team poised to take real steps forward this season. However, the hype train may be getting a little out of control.
The Mammoth have benefited greatly from a soft opening schedule. They’ve played the second-easiest schedule in the Western Conference, according to Hockey-Reference.
Utah has controlled 52% of the xG share through 10 games yet managed a +13 goal differential. The Edmonton Oilers have matched them with a 52% xG share, but that has translated into a -2 goal differential. The two teams are putting forth similar underlying outputs.
Despite having three of the best weapons in the league (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard), the Oilers are struggling to convert on their chances and scoring at a relatively low rate.
Conversely, the Mammoth are scoring on what feels like all of their chances and finishing at a clip they won’t be able to sustain.
The Oilers are a sleeping giant, so to speak, and deserve better results than they’ve garnered. Look for them to bring the Mammoth back to earth.
Connor McDavid has generated 3.9 expected goals this season, yet scored just once. He’s consistently finished at a very high rate, so there’s no reason to expect the league’s best player to continue to squander opportunities. The tide will turn soon.
Dylan Guenther has averaged 3.7 shots on goal per game this season. In a game I see the Mammoth losing, Guenther should benefit from extra ice and shooting opportunities while pushing for offense. He attempted 19 shots over two losses thus far.
The Oilers are 3-0 with a +11 goal differential over the last three games against Utah. Find more NHL betting trends for Mammoth vs. Oilers.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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