The Penguins love to play at a fast pace, but they can't suppress shots to save their lives. Expect Nikita Kucherov to fire at will tonight.
NHL
The Tampa Bay Lightning were a little slow out of the gate but appear to be hitting their stride. They own a 2-0-1 record over the last three games and have outscored opponents 9-3.
My Lightning vs. Penguins predictions see Tampa Bay continuing to build on its recent success, with superstar winger Nikita Kucherov stealing the show against a vulnerable Pittsburgh team.
Let’s take a closer look with my November 19 NHL picks.
My best bet
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 shots (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Nikita Kucherov is very productive when it comes to generating shots. He’s recorded a healthy average of 3.8 per game and cleared 3.5 at a solid 56% clip to start the season.
Although that hit rate may not pop off the page, it’s pretty impressive when considering Kucherov has a handful of recent failures against very stingy opponents like the Minnesota Wild, Colorado Avalanche, Washington Capitals, and New Jersey Devils.
Kucherov’s floor and ceiling were heavily dented in each of those matchups, sinking overall numbers that are still quite strong.
All the stars will align tonight against the Pittsburgh Penguins. For one, he gets his usual center, Brayden Point, back from injury. Kuch averages 9.63 shots on target per 60 at 5-on-5 with Point as opposed to 7.90 with Anthony Cirelli.
The even bigger factor is the mouthwatering matchup vs. the Penguins. Pittsburgh has played high-event hockey and struggled mightily to defend all season long.
The Pens have shown no signs they’re capable of tightening the screws, ranking third in 5-on-5 pace and 27th in shot suppression over the last 10 games.
Pittsburgh also ranks 31st on the year when it comes to limiting shots to opposing wingers, keeping company with teams like San Jose and Montreal.
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 shots
Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 points
Lightning moneyline
Kucherov lives on the scoresheet. He’s piled up 26 points through 16 games, securing at least a point all but one time.
The Penguins allow shots and chances at absurdly high rates and possess one of the worst goaltending situations in the NHL. Suffice to say, they’re not well equipped to be the team that can slow Kucherov down.
The Tampa Bay Lightning just beat the Winnipeg Jets and New Jersey Devils — two of the league’s best teams — by an 8-1 scoreline in aggregate. They’ve sat idle since Saturday as well, meaning Kucherov and the team’s best weapons will be well rested and ready for a full workload.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nikita Kucherov has cleared 3.5 shots in five of his last six head-to-head meetings with Pittsburgh. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Penguins.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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