The time is now for Andrei Svechnikov to be Carolina's go-to guy, and he'll be set up for success against Tampa Bay.
NHL
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes square off in a marquee matchup between a pair of perennial Eastern Conference powerhouses.
This should be a back-and-forth affair, and my Lightning vs. Hurricanes predictions expect a star winger on each side to make their marks offensively.
I’ll break it all down in my NHL picks for Friday, October 11.
My best bet
Andrei Svechnikov Over 0.5 points + Over 1.5 shots (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
The Carolina Hurricanes lost a ton of scoring on the wings in the offseason.
Jake Guentzel departed after a short but productive cameo with the Canes, while Teuvo Tervainanen (53 points in 76 games) and Stefan Noesen (37 points in 81 games) also walked away in free agency — opting to chase more lucrative deals elsewhere.
Carolina is going to rely heavily on internal improvements to boost the team’s scoring and replace the bulk of the offense lost, most notably Andrei Svechnikov.
The winger is projected to skate on the team’s second line alongside Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas, and he’ll serve as a go-to-shooter on the top power-play unit. Put simply, he’s going to get a lot of ice in opportune situations.
The Tampa Bay Lightning possess a lot of star power, but their lineup is top-heavy. The Sebastian Aho line and Jordan Staal line will eat up almost every bit of the ice against Nikita Kucherov, freeing up Svechnikov to create offense against lesser competition.
The 24-year-old has historically been a lot more productive when getting more favorable matchups on home soil, picking up at least a point in 70 of his last 115 home games (60%).
His shot rates have also risen at home, averaging 3.2 shots per game in Carolina during that window.
An added bonus for Svechnikov is being centered by Kotkaniemi rather than Aho. Kotkaniemi is much more of a passer than a scorer and that has propped up Svechnikov’s shot rates accordingly.
The RW recorded 10.37 shots on goal and 19.67 attempts per 60 minutes of 5v5 play with Kotkaniemi last season. Those were the highest rates he posted out of any of the 10 Hurricanes he shared the ice with for at least 105 minutes.
Andrei Svechnikov Over 0.5 points
Andrei Svechnikov Over 1.5 shots
Nikita Kucherov Over 2.5 shots
Can you really build a Lightning SGP without including Kucherov? The Tampa winger has had little problem generating shots against the Hurricanes in recent years, clearing in five of the past seven head-to-head meetings — and all four in Carolina.
The Lightning were initially slated to play in back-to-back nights, but their home game on Saturday has rightfully been called off as a byproduct of the devastating hurricane.
That means the Lightning — who haven’t played since last Friday’s preseason finale — will be out of action until Tuesday at the earliest following this game.
Head coach Jon Cooper will be able to spoon feed Kucherov and the team’s best players as much ice time as they can handle, only increasing the likelihood of their stud winger hitting three shots.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Andrei Svechnikov has found the scoresheet in six of the last seven games against Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Hurricanes.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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