The Lightning narrowly escaped Boston with a win on Sunday and will immediately play a rested Capitals team in DC. Washington wins, and Aliaksei Protas will be a factor.
NHL
The Washington Capitals host the Tampa Bay Lightning to kick off ESPN’s doubleheader on Tuesday night.
Tampa Bay has struggled out of the gate this season, and my Lightning vs. Capitals predictions expect that to continue tonight.
Read on for my NHL picks for Tuesday, October 14.
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Lightning vs Capitals Best bet: Capitals moneyline (-115)
The Tampa Bay Lightning got their first win of the season on Monday afternoon, but they nearly blew it as Boston made it a 4-3 final after the Bolts went up 4-1. While Tampa Bay was in action, the Washington Capitals enjoyed a day off after back-to-back road wins this weekend.
Tampa Bay was a respectable 5-6-0 in the second half of a back-to-back last season, and it did save Andrei Vasilevskiy for this matchup. However, Vasilevskiy hasn’t found his game yet this season, surrendering nine goals on 64 shots.
It’s an extremely small sample size, but the Lightning have just 44.87% of the shot attempt share and 47.43% of the expected goals share at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick, while the Capitals have a Top-5 xGF share at 57.4%.
The Capitals had a distinct home-ice advantage last season, going 26-9-6, and the Lightning were just 18-19-4 on the road. Washington will get the win on home ice after dropping its home opener last week.
The Capitals are coming off a 1-0 win against the Rangers, but they’re more than capable of putting goals on the board, as shown by their 4-2 win against the Islanders. I’ll stretch the moneyline to the puck line to get the odds up on this same-game parlay.
As for the Lightning, they’ve allowed five, five, and three goals so far this season while scoring at least three in each game themselves. We should easily see this game go over the total in D.C.
Aliaksei Protas had a coming-out party last season, and he’s keeping it going to begin this year. He has four points (two goals, two assists) and 10 shots on goal through three games. He’s had a total of 17 shot attempts, including six in the lone home game, so he should hit the net a few times tonight.
The Washington Capitals have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 94 games (+12.70 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Capitals.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan’s hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.
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