Parker's prediction: With both teams among the best at keeping the puck out of the net, the Kings' plus-money price is too good to pass up.
NHL
It’s a powerhouse Western Conference clash at the American Airlines Center on Friday, February 28, with the Los Angeles Kings visiting the Dallas Stars.
Both clubs are battling for playoff positioning down the stretch, and my top Kings vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks expect Los Angeles to pull off a big upset in Big D tonight.
My best bet
Kings moneyline (+125 at Betway)
My analysis
At first glance, the Los Angeles Kings sporting a 12-14-5 road record stand out as a postseason-bound team battling for the top spot in the Pacific Division.
It’s been more poor puck luck on the highway than anything for Los Angeles, though.
The Kings pace the NHL in expected goals percentage (55.8%) and rank third with a 53.9 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five on the road. And, they also allow the fewest expected goals per 60 (2.13) at 5-on-5 while also leading the way with an 84.9 penalty-kill percentage on the road.
Turning to the Dallas Stars, while they’ve treaded water without No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen (knee) to the tune of a 5-2-1 record, there are glaring warning signs at 5-on-5.
52.9% (7th)
There’s value backing the Kings as a decent-sized underdog on the road with both clubs eyeing the highlighted respective statistical correction.
LA Kings ML
Under 6.5 goals
Kevin Fiala 3+ shots on goal
I’m expecting the Kings to do the heavy lifting for this Under because of their highlighted defensive success on the road. Even with the noted Dallas defensive dip, I’m also not expecting Los Angeles to fill the net, either.
The Stars have climbed to 31.3 shots against per game while allowing 65.7 attempts per 60 minutes without Heiskanen, which is way up from their respective 26.6 and 55.2 marks with him in the lineup.
As a result, I’m eyeing Kings winger Kevin Fiala in shots market. He’s recorded three or more shots in six of his past seven games and paces the club in both shots and attempts per 60 minutes for the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
The Los Angeles Kings have hit the game total Under in 25 of their last 45 away games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Stars.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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