The Edmonton Oilers somehow find themselves up 3-2 in a series they've largely been outplayed in. As Neil Parker explains, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins hasn't exactly been racking up the points and helping the team's cause.
NHL
What a difference a week makes.
The Edmonton Oilers have erased a 0-2 series deficit with three straight wins over the Los Angeles Kings, and the Oil can advance to Round 1 with a home-ice win at Rogers Place on Thursday, May 1.
My Kings vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks expect Los Angeles to show up defensively and hold Edmonton center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins off the scoreboard in Game 6.
The Edmonton Oilers have won three straight, and superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have taken over the series by combining for five goals and 20 points. Still, with the season on the line, I expect the Los Angeles Kings to tighten up defensively to pull off a low-scoring win to set up a Game 7. It’s tough to beat a team in four straight.
My Kings vs Oilers pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Under 0.5 points (-105 at BET99)
It’s been a relatively quiet series for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He’s collected two goals and an assist, but just a single goal came at five-on-five, with him picking up a power-play assist in Game 4 and scoring an empty-net goal in Game 5. The lone five-on-five goal was assisted by superstar Connor McDavid, too, and Nugent-Hopkins is no longer skating consistently with No. 97.
Nugent-Hopkins’ underlying numbers aren’t incredibly impressive, either. He sports a 46.6 Corsi For percentage and has been on the ice for just a single goal and 4.8 expected goals at 5-on-5 through five games.
Additionally, he’s played with Evander Kane and Zach Hyman the past two contests, and the trio hasn’t found the back of the net despite generating 3.14 expected goals at 5-on-5. Typically, I’d be calling those strong generated chances to translate to the scoreboard, but I’m also anticipating the Los Angeles Kings showing up defensively in this elimination game.
Los Angeles has also been incredibly disciplined with just 13 penalties across the five games, so Nugent-Hopkins might not have the luxury of big power-play minutes, either.
Of course, the Kings have the personnel to play sound defensively, too. Los Angeles allowed the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes and the second-fewest goals per game during the regular season. Plus, No. 1 goalie Darcy Kuemper showed up in Game 5 with 3.87 goals saved above expected.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Under 0.5 points
Evander Kane Over 1.5 shots on goal
Alex Laferriere Over 1.5 shots on goal
Kane has been putting pucks on net in bunches since returning to the lineup in Game 2, with his 14 shots and 27 attempts both ranking third on the club. Additionally, his 14.42 shots and 27.73 attempts per 60 minutes across the past three games pace the Oilers.
Turning to Los Angeles winger Alex Laferriere, his 28 attempts at 5-on-5 are tied for second on the club, but he’s converted them into just nine shots (32.1%).
Still, he’s recorded two or more shots in three of five Round 1 games, and I’m anticipating him converting his attempts into shots at a higher rate in Game 6. The 23-year-old winger converted 50.3% of attempts into shots during the regular season, after all.
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The Los Angeles Kings have hit the Under in 47 of their last 88 games (+4.10 Units / 4% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Oilers.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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