Advanced metrics indicate that the number of goals being scored in this series is unsustainable, providing value on the Under in Game 3.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
If Game 3 isn’t a must-win tilt for the Edmonton Oilers, it’s as close as they come because the Los Angeles Kings can take a commanding 3-0 series lead with a road win at Rogers Place on Friday, April 25.
While there have been goals in bunches through the first two games of the series, my Kings vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks expect the scoring to dip with both teams tightening up defensively tonight.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will have their way in a Game 3 win. The Los Angeles Kings didn’t travel well during the regular season with a 17-19-5 road record.
Additionally, Los Angeles has a splash of statistical correction coming to its unsustainably high 18.0 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5. Back the Oil to get one back.
My Kings pick: Under 5.5 (+115 at BET99)
The goal scoring is going to cool in Game 3 between the Kings and the Edmonton Oilers. There have been 12 goals at 5-on-5 through the first two games of the Pacific Division series despite the two teams combining to generate just 6.44 expected goals.
Neither club has received quality goaltending, with Kings No. 1 Darcy Kuemper sporting a .863 SV% and -2.98 goals saved above expected, while Oilers starter Stuart Skinner has posted equally poor marks of .810 and -2.82. Improvement is imminent.
Los Angeles has also cashed in on five of its 10 power-play opportunities.
Considering the Kings allowed the second-fewest goals per game (2.48) and fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and the Oilers were above average with 2.87 allowed per and the ninth-fewest xGA/60, the two teams tightening up defensively Friday is definitely in the cards.
It’s also worth noting Edmonton showed off with just 2.39 per game during a lengthy 22-7-2 heater when the Oil were largely healthy and playing at their best.
Additionally, having the last-change advantage and playing at the Rogers Center stands to help Edmonton. Los Angeles dipped to a 24th-ranked 2.61 goals per game on the highway, after all.
Oilers moneyline
Under 5.5
Alex Laferriere Over 2.5 shots on goal
While there are weaknesses throughout the Edmonton lineup, superstar strength can cure a lot of ills. I’m anticipating McDavid and Draisaitl showing up in Game 3, and the Kings have serious statistical correction ahead of their 18.0 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 and 50.0 PP%.
Kings winger Alex Laferriere has only registered three shots through the first two games of the series, but he’s tied for third in attempts with 11. Look for Larerriere to convert more attempts into shots in Game 3, especially considering his much better efficiency during the regular season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of BET99
The Los Angeles Kings have hit the Under in 47 of their last 88 games (+4.40 Units / 4% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Oilers.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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