Although Winnipeg and Washington can score in bunches, their No. 1 netminders will steal the show in the battle between the league's elite.
NHL
The NHL’s top two seeds will meet for the first time this season when the Washington Capitals play host to the Winnipeg Jets in a marquee matchup tonight.
My Jets vs. Capitals predictions expect a competitive, lower-scoring affair with Connor Hellebuyck and Logan Thompson showcasing why they’re leading the pack in the Vezina race.
Let’s break things down further with my NHL picks for February 1.
My Jets pick
Under 5.5 (-125 at Pinnacle)
My Jets analysis
The Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals have scored goals at will all season long, but they’ve also been the two best teams in limiting opposing offenses. I expect them to show why in this game.
Neither team likes to play fast. They can ramp up and play track-meet style when necessary, but their default style is to sustain pressure in the offensive zone and grind teams down until they make a mistake.
Both sides rank near the bottom of the league in 5-on-5 pace for the season, and they’ve only slowed things down further recently. The Jets sit 29th in pace over the last 10 games, while the Capitals are 28th.
We should see more methodical play build up rather than trading rush opportunities, which means chances will take time to develop.
When they do, shooters will have to beat the two best goalies in the NHL this season. Connor Hellebuyck is the runaway favorite to win the Vezina Trophy, and understandably so; he leads the NHL in games played and goals saved above expected.
Logan Thompson is the only goaltender whose numbers hold a candle to Hellebuyck’s, albeit he’s kept that company while splitting starts.
Thompson owns a 23-2-3 record and a .927 save percentage, and only Hellebuyck ranks higher in GSAE.
Hellebuyck and Thompson also hold the top two slots in Quality Start%. They are giving their team a chance to win more frequently than anybody else.
As good as they are, both teams continue to do a great job of supporting their goaltenders. The Jets and Capitals have allowed an average of fewer than 27 shots per game over the last 10.
They have also done excellent work on the penalty kill, with the Jets (sixth) and Capitals (third) both ranking near the top of the league on the penalty kill during that same span.
We haven’t seen any movement on the moneyline as both teams are holding firm on their opening prices at Pinnacle.
The market is clearly not expecting offensive fireworks as the Over of 5.5 goals has shifted from +104 to +111.
Beyond the case I laid out above, both teams have played in more Unders than Overs and that holds especially true for the Capitals of late. Nine of their past 10 games have gone Under the total — a trend I expect to continue Saturday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience
Make your Jets wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!
19+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Washington owns a 20-28-3 O/U record on the season. Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs. Capitals.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.