At the NHL’s Thanksgiving break, the Winnipeg Jets and Carolina Hurricanes top their respective … [+]
Longtime general manager and Hockey Hall of Famer Ken Holland is credited with introducing the idea that an NHL team’s place in the standings at U.S. Thanksgiving frequently foreshadows whether or not that team will make the playoffs.
“He had all the historical data that showed that,” wrote former NHL coach Paul MacLean for NHL.com last week. “It’s not every team that ends up that way, some teams will fall out of the playoffs, but for the most part, up to 80 percent of the playoff schedule is basically decided.”
With no games scheduled Thursday due to the holiday, let’s take a look at where things stand.
Because teams have not played the same number of games, it’s fairest to rank them by points percentage. That causes two changes from the regular standings: the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils swap spots in the Metropolitan Division, and the Buffalo Sabres nudge the Boston Bruins out of the playoff picture entirely.
If that’s really a sign of things to come, it’s monumental. The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since 2011, longer than any other team. With previous coach Lindy Ruff returning this season, Buffalo stumbled to a 1-4-1 start. But the team now seems to be finding its way, with a record of 10-6-0 since Oct. 19. Through that span, goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been fantastic, with a .924 save percentage and 2.14 goals-against average.
It would also be a massive turn of events if the Bruins miss for the first time since 2016. After a historic regular season in 2022-23, Boston was knocked out by the Florida Panthers in the second round of the 2024 playoffs and has stumbled out of the gate this year, leading to the firing of coach Jim Montgomery on Nov. 19.
The Bruins are 3-1-0 since interim head coach Joe Sacco took the reins, and their current record of 11-10-3 gives them a points percentage of .521 — only a whisper behind Buffalo. For the moment, third place in the Atlantic is still very much up for grabs.
In the Metro, the Devils are back in the playoff picture after a one-year absence. They replace the New York Islanders, who currently sit 14th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 8-10-5 and a .457 points percentage.
But the Islanders are also just three points out of the second wild-card spot. Just six points separate the Rangers, in the first wild-card spot, from the last place Montreal Canadiens. They’re at 8-11-3, with a .432 points percentage. So the rest of the season could be a wild ride in the East.
In 2023-24, eight points separated the first wild-card spot from the bottom of the conference. The Islanders overcame a three-point deficit to knock out the Detroit Red Wings and claim third place in the Metropolitan Division.
Using points percentage causes just one small change in the Western Conference rankings. The Vancouver Canucks move up from the wild card due to fewer games played.
In addition to the surprisingly dominant start for the league-leading Jets, the Minnesota Wild and Calgary Flames have also seemingly come out of nowhere to play themselves into the post-season mix.
The Wild have been operating short-handed since buying out the contracts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise during the summer of 2021, which led to massive salary-cap charges. This season, those two buyouts take up $14.7 million of Minnesota’s $88 million worth of cap space, according to PuckPedia. But after this year, the remaining burden will drop to a more manageable $1.67 million a year for the next three seasons.
With all that dead cap space, it’s incredible that the Wild are performing as well as they are. They’re getting Vezina-caliber goaltending from Filip Gustavsson, whose .929 save percentage leads the league, as well as an MVP-worthy season from star winger Kirill Kaprizov. He’s tied for second in league scoring with 35 points in 21 games, despite having recently missed one game after an injury scare last weekend.
The Flames’ resurgence comes after two years outside the playoff picture. Their success has also been fuelled by strong goaltending, from rookie Dustin Wolf and incumbent Dan Vladar. Calgary’s .9425 team save percentage at 5-on-5 is the best in the NHL.
With Minnesota and Calgary in playoff positions, the Edmonton Oilers and Nashville Predators are the two teams from the 2024 post-season that are currently on the outside looking in. Funnily enough, the same was true last year. Both teams had strong second-half surges which displaced the Seattle Kraken and St. Louis Blues from their early wild-card positions.
In the West, there’s currently an eight-point spread between the first wild-card spot and last place — which is occupied by Nashville. The Predators will need to replicate last season’s incredible winning streak to have any chance of bridging that gap. The Oilers are in a better position, just one point out of the second wild card.
The NHL schedule resumes Friday with 14 games staggered throughout the day. The action begins with the Philadelphia Flyers hosting the Rangers at 1 p.m. ET.
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