Italy finishes up its group play games against Finland on Saturday. The host country has played better than expected thus far, putting up a solid fight against Sweden and then losing by just one goal to Slovakia.
Finland got upset by Slovakia in its opener, but bounced back with a 4-1 victory over rival Sweden on Friday morning.
The Finns won’t hold back against Italy on Saturday, though, as goal differential could play a part in deciding who wins Group B.
Let’s take a look at the odds and my prediction for Italy vs. Finland in Men’s Olympic Hockey Group B on Saturday, Feb. 14.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Puck Line
Moneyline
Total
Despite how surprising Italy has been thus far, I can only look Finland’s way in this one. The Finns put up a strong showing against Sweden, holding the Swedes to just one goal early in the second period.
A quick glance at the shot totals might make you think Finland was a bit lucky to win, as they were outshot by Sweden 35-24, but there were some score effects there as 17 of Sweden’s 35 shots came in the third period. Through 40 minutes, both teams had 18 shots on goal.
Finland also got offense from throughout the lineup. There were four different goal scorers, and 12 different players recorded points on those four goals.
I’m tempted to simply take Finland -4.5, but the OVER 6.5 is where I’m going here. Italy has shown that it’s capable of scoring a goal or two, and the Finns should put up the rest themselves.
The Finns are going to need to give it their all offensively if they want a chance to win the group, which should lead to a bit more open hockey overall. Italy to score a goal (-165) or over 1.5 (+280) could be worth a play as well if you just want to root for the underdog.
Pick: OVER 6.5 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Ryan is a sports betting writer at Sports Illustrated. He has experience working for NHL.com, NBC Sports, Covers, and more throughout his decade in the industry. As a Philadelphia native, he understands the passion and pain that come with being a sports fan.
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