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CFP Round 1
Last Updated: December 21, 2024 9:06 AM EST • 2 min 57 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 4-2-1 in the second game of back-to-backs this season as they prepare to host the New York Islanders on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+/CBC) after beating the Buffalo Sabres 6-3 on Friday.
Not only are the Maple Leafs solid after playing the night before, but they’re also Stanley Cup odds front-runners and the third-best team on home ice, winning 14 of 18 at Scotiabank Arena.
And they’ll be turning to Joseph Woll after Matt Murray played in Buffalo. The New York Islanders haven’t played since Tuesday, when they lost 4-0 on the road to the Carolina Hurricanes.
That loss made it seven in the last eight away tilts, and our Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Prediction expects the contest to follow a similar script.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
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The Islanders don’t have an identity. I’d be surprised if they know what the word means. Though they enter Saturday’s contest well-rested, the Islanders have the fifth-worst road points percentage since Nov. 15 (.313).
New York has lost two in a row in enemy rinks, allowing nine goals and scoring three.
Despite losing seven of their last eight road games, the Islanders usually keep it close, losing three during that span in overtime or a shootout. Six of those seven defeats came by one goal, so I expect the Islanders, who also have the rest advantage, to make life difficult for Toronto.
However, the Maple Leafs required overtime only once in its 14 home wins.
No team has won more games on home ice than the Maple Leafs. Their 14 wins are one more than Carolina’s and Dallas’ 13.
Like the injured Anthony Stolarz, Saturday’s likely starter, Joseph Woll, has been almost as good at the Scotiabank Arena. At home, Woll is 6-1-0 with a .936 save percentage and a 1.66 goals-against average (GAA).
Only Stolarz (.937) and Dustin Wolf (.942) have a better home save percentage, and David Rittich (1.51) is the only netminder with a superior GAA for those with at least seven games.
They allow the fewest goals per game at home (2.06), and the Islanders are tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the third-fewest road goals per game since Nov. 15.
The Maple Leafs usually get up for home Hockey Night in Canada games, too, winning three of four. I’d lock the Under 6.5 goals in if the odds weren’t sitting at a too-pricey -165.
If Toronto wins in regulation, a winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.
NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +150 via Betway | Implied probability: 40%
The Maple Leafs have scored a power-play goal in three of the last four games, and Marner notched an assist on two of three goals. He has a point on 17 of Toronto’s 20 power-play goals, an 85% contribution rate.
It’s also a favorable matchup for the home team, who face the league’s second-worst road penalty kill (66.7%) since Nov. 15. The Islanders don’t take a lot of penalties, ranking first with just 5:24 per game.
That’s the primary reason this is a three-star play. They’ve taken only six penalties in the last three games but allowed three power-play markers. Plus, the Maple Leafs have the sixth-best power play since Nov. 4 (26.7%). A winning $10 bet will profit $15.
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