The Carolina Hurricanes are one win away from advancing to Round 3 of the Stanley Cup playoffs for the second time in the last three years.
The Canes have come under criticism for playing a boring brand of hockey in these playoffs, but they won’t mind as long as the wins keep coming.
The Washington Capitals have had moments in this series where they’ve looked up to par with the Canes, but Carolina’s relentless pressure has taken its toll on the Caps, putting them in a 3-1 hole.
Carolina is a -3500 favorite to win the series and -170 to get the job done in Washington on Thursday night.
The Hurricanes are an outlier.
Carolina’s system puts an emphasis on throwing the puck at the net from anywhere and everywhere, and then capitalizing on the chaos that ensues.
It sounds like a simple system, but it is effective due to Carolina’s ability to win 50/50 pucks and create second and third looks off the forecheck.
I thought the Capitals would be set up well to overcome the Hurricanes’ suffocating style but, so far, Washington has looked exasperated and out of ideas. 
The most frustrating part of this series for the Capitals is that they actually haven’t played that poorly at 5-on-5. There have been times when they have been under siege, but the numbers show that Washington is a little bit unlucky to be down 3-1.
Carolina, as it usually does, has attempted a whopping number of shots, but they haven’t been quality chances for the most part.
Washington has been outshot, 99-59, at 5-on-5 in this series, but the Caps have created 39 high-danger scoring chances to Carolina’s 40.
Frederik Andersen has been superb in goal, but the Caps shouldn’t be discouraged with how they’ve played through the first four games of this series.
A couple of bounces go their way and this is a 2-2 series.
It’s not the easiest bet to make, but the Capitals continue to hold value in this matchup. 
The Play: Capitals +140 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

source