NHL
The Washington Capitals weren’t out of the playoff picture in February 2023 when management started selling. The Capitals went into Feb. 23, the day of their first deadline-related deal, just two points out of the second wild-card seed with a game in hand. But management recognized that even if the Capitals made the postseason — and at the time, two teams separated them from that eighth seed — they likely weren’t ready for a deep run.
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The mushy middle is one of the worst places to be in the NHL. Teams in that position are often destined for a Round 1 exit or a finish just outside the bubble, which hurts their chances of landing a top draft pick. Some teams must take a proactive approach to better their chances in either direction. Sometimes, that means taking a step back and getting worse in the interim to better their trajectory. That’s what the Capitals did back in 2023.
It started with a trade between the Bruins and Capitals (and Wild as a third-party broker). The Capitals moved out two pending free agents, Garnet Hathaway and Dmitry Orlov, in exchange for a 2023 first-rounder, 2024 third, 2025 second and Craig Smith.
A few days later, Erik Gustafsson and the 2023 first-rounder acquired from Boston in the Hathaway and Orlov trade were sent to Toronto in exchange for up-and-coming defenseman Rasmus Sandin. The moves continued with Marcus Johansson getting flipped to Minnesota for a 2024 third-rounder, and then veteran center Lars Eller was shipped out to Colorado for a 2025 second-round pick.
The Capitals took themselves out of the playoff picture and slid down to 13th in the Eastern Conference with an 80-point finish. But that retool on the fly helped set them up for a turnaround when it seemed like their playoff window was starting to close — and it’s something a handful of teams around the league should try to learn from.
The Capitals’ story doesn’t end with the 2023 deadline. Management didn’t miraculously turn Washington back into a playoff-caliber team by moving a few key veterans out at one trade deadline, but it aggressively kicked off a necessary process.
The Capitals didn’t turn their newly acquired assets or cap space into an active 2023 offseason. More meaningful roles opened up for young talent, and some personnel tweaks were made in free agency. The big change was behind the bench with Spencer Carbery’s hiring. His impact was felt as the 2023-24 season rolled on, all the way into the playoffs. After a Round 1 exit, management put in the offseason work to help the roster match the energy their new coach brought.
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The Capitals brought in Matt Roy and Logan Thompson, and bet on a few reclamation projects in Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun and Andrew Mangiapane. Those additions (and Carbery’s coaching) have revitalized the team’s aging core and helped elevate some of their up-and-coming talent. The Capitals look like a playoff lock just past the midway point of the season with a 99 percent chance of making the postseason. Their strong start to the year should start inspiring teams around them on how to pull off a retool on the fly.
Not every team necessarily needs to go as far as the Capitals to refresh its roster or even follow the same timeline. Sometimes, a bold offseason is enough time to make waves. Look at the Lightning last summer, who traded Mikhail Sergachev, signed Jake Guentzel, re-acquired Ryan McDonagh, added JJ Moser and made a handful of depth signings. Tampa Bay is far from perfect now but is better positioned to keep its playoff window open than when last season ended.
Sometimes, stepping back from the playoff picture can be the difference needed to turn a team around. It buys a team more time than just one offseason to change the vibe and construction of a team. It provides at least two opportunities — the deadline and offseason — to clear contracts and salary and replenish assets for future moves. Draft picks and prospects can be acquired to enhance a team’s pipeline because most perennial playoff teams drain those assets to stay relevant. A retooling team (versus a rebuilding) may have different uses for picks; the Capitals flipped Boston’s 2023 first-rounder for Sandin and sent the 2025 second-round pick from the Eller deal to Calgary for Mangiapane last summer. That loose model is what a few teams could try to replicate over the next couple of months.
The Predators may be the prime example of a team needing a quick retool. General manager Barry Trotz had a busy offseason that included trading McDonagh and signing marquee free agents Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei to supplement the Predators’ three core players: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Juuse Saros. But after ‘winning the offseason,’ Nashville has little to show for it. The Predators sit 30th in the standings and have a one percent chance of reaching the postseason after their disastrous start. What makes their situation even worse is that they only have a six percent chance of landing the first pick in the draft.
After trading Alex Carrier to Montreal, Trotz clarified that the Predators are not rebuilding. Instead, they are resetting in-season to prepare for another big offseason.
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In the East, a few teams could try to follow in the Capitals’ footsteps as well. The Bruins’ roster is fundamentally flawed and a coaching change in November hasn’t done enough to mask that. Despite their goaltending rebounding from a slow start, their two-way game has trailed off this season — and that was on display over their six-game winless streak earlier this month.
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Unlike the Predators, the Bruins aren’t out of the playoff picture. Boston is positioned as the first wild-card seed and has a 35 percent chance of reaching the postseason, thanks to a very fluid Eastern Conference. But even if the Bruins look destined to return to the playoffs, management should still look at the big picture and their odds of going the distance. Without a thriving prospect pipeline to lean on, and with some bad contracts at the NHL level, this team could need a reset to better contend next year around David Pastrnak, Jeremy Swayman and Charlie McAvoy.
The Rangers are still vying for one of those two wild-card seeds. The team has improved over their last stretch, but the bar is low after spiraling through much of November and December. That sunk their playoff chances from 88 percent in the preseason to 34 percent. This team may have been two games away from the Stanley Cup Final last spring, but management needs to decide if this group has the chops to match or exceed that this season. If not, a retool on the fly could be in order.
Rangers GM Chris Drury has already been active on the trade market, moving Jacob Trouba and Kaapo Kakko earlier this season. However, the team could step back even further and remodel the defense by moving out pending free agents Ryan Lindgren (whose game has declined over the last couple of seasons), Will Borgen and Reilly Smith. Plus there could still be core changes if management decides to move Chris Kreider or can navigate Mika Zibanejad’s no-movement clause. With a proactive approach, New York could reposition itself for a playoff return in 2025.
Under general manager Lou Lamoriello, the Islanders have either been buyers at the deadline or stood pat despite having opportunities to retool. The Islanders aren’t ready to concede just yet — and realistically shouldn’t for another few weeks since they still have a 23 percent chance of reaching the postseason. But this should be a consideration because it may be the team’s best chance to improve for future runs. Kyle Palmieri and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are two trade assets, but the real gem is Brock Nelson; he could bring back a haul if last year is any indication of how valuable centers will be at this year’s deadline.
Like the Rangers, Bruins and even the Predators, the Islanders aren’t true rebuild candidates. These teams all have franchise players to build around and some contracts that would impede them from fully committing to the tear-down process. But the team’s current path is far from inspiring, and management has to put in the work to change that. The Islanders may be stocked on draft picks over the next two years, but management outright decimated their prospect pool over the years, so there are not a ton of options from within to help. And realistically, those 2025 and 2026 picks likely won’t help this team’s core in the near future. While it’s essential to replenish their pipeline, trades could better position them to add up-and-coming talent ready to contribute sooner. That may be the better bet than a playoff run that could end in a third consecutive Round 1 exit.
As the playoff picture takes shape, teams need to assess just how much damage they could do in the postseason as constructed — and whether a couple of deadline additions are enough to solidify their chances. That not only applies to the four aforementioned teams but also for clubs with better chances of reaching the postseason but little hope of actually winning the Stanley Cup, like the Canucks and Wild.
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Not every team wants to sacrifice a playoff appearance like the Capitals did in 2023, even if they are destined for an inevitable early exit. Surprise runs by the 2023 Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final, or even further back with the eighth-seeded Kings in 2012, can give teams hope. Pulling out of the playoff picture isn’t just a potential loss of revenue for a franchise, it’s a risky strategy that can burn a team. It’s much easier to step out of the playoff race than re-enter it, even just one season later, because not every swing pays off.
But the reward can be worth the risk if a retool on the fly helps a middling team better position themselves for future playoff runs. The sooner the team commits, the better their chances of turning things around. And it can help punt the need for a full-on rebuild down the road.
Teams like the Blackhawks serve as a reminder of just how painful the rebuilding process can be, even with the help of top draft picks. The Sabres, Senators and Red Wings have shown how challenging it is to move out of that phase and back into the playoff mix over the last couple of seasons. And while some can try to accelerate the process, sometimes it just elongates it.
The Capitals aren’t the first team to successfully retool; they are just the most recent team to do so. Their version of pulling it off so far has only resulted in one playoff appearance in 2024 and a strong first half of the 2024-25 season. That may not be enough to sway teams just yet.
Still, Washington’s improved chances can serve as a loose framework for others to take inspiration from. There is no one-size-fits-all blueprint for retooling. Every team is built differently, with its own unique set of circumstances to consider. But having a realistic view of a team’s chances, despite current playoff standings, can be a difference-maker. Taking a creative and proactive approach, as the Capitals have over the last couple of seasons, can be the reset that transforms a team’s trajectory. And that is something a handful of playoff hopefuls should seriously consider as the 2025 deadline approaches.
(Top photo of Logan Thompson, Rasmus Sandin and Brandon Duhaime: Jess Rapfogel / NHLI via Getty Images)
Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
