NHL
On the morning of Game 7 between the Windsor Spitfires and Kitchener Rangers, Jack Nesbitt awoke to an unwelcome realization.
His head hurt. His throat hurt. His stomach hurt. Everything hurt — so much so that he had to get an IV ahead of the deciding game of the OHL second-round series.
Even after the IV and a pregame nap, Nesbitt still could barely get out of bed. It was later revealed he had strep throat. But when the time came for puck drop, there he was, out there at center ice for the opening faceoff.
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“I just pushed through it, did what I could,” Nesbitt told The Athletic. “Game 7, gotta play.”
In a game that went deep into overtime, Nesbitt ended up logging 23 minutes for the Spitfires. He took 20 faceoffs, put five shots on net and assisted on the team’s only goal.
“It was touch and go if he was even going to play,” Windsor coach Greg Walters said. “And then, the warrior that he is, he was one of our best players.”
No doubt the 2-1 overtime loss was a sour way to end the Spitfires’ season. But in terms of final statements, it was nonetheless an impressive one for Nesbitt, who over the course of the season was perhaps one of the most improved players in this NHL Draft class.
In NHL Central Scouting’s “players to watch” list from October, Nesbitt was graded as a “B” prospect — indicating a second- or third-round candidate for the NHL Draft. But after a big season, in which Nesbitt more than tripled his production from his OHL rookie campaign — finishing with 25 goals and 64 points in 65 games — Nesbitt has put himself in the mix to be a potential top-20 pick in June’s draft.
Nesbitt’s physical traits stand out immediately as a 6-foot-4 center. But part of that size, especially for someone who had a significant growth spurt of about four inches around age 15, is being able to carry that frame around the ice. Nesbitt’s skating, as a result, can look laborious. It’s the primary question surrounding his draft profile, and it’s a valid one, in a league that’s only getting faster.
But the rest of Nesbitt’s tools, as a physical forward with soft hands, are impressive — and hard enough to find that it’s easy to see a team betting on what he can become if that skating improves.
“I think the exciting part for even a guy like me, or an NHL team, is what will this guy look like in four or five years,” Windsor general manager Bill Bowler said. “It’s just, there’s too much there. He checks every box for a hockey team, I think.”
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Bowler is quick to point out that the Spitfires’ 2023-24 team, which finished with the second-worst record in the league, wasn’t the greatest environment for Nesbitt to showcase himself as a 16-year-old. That could be part of the reason Nesbitt’s offensive production jumped so much from year to year. Nesbitt also pointed to confidence coming in for his second season.
But just as Windsor shot up the standings, finishing as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference this season, Nesbitt took real strides in his game, too. And the path to that improvement began last summer.
Every week, Nesbitt would leave his home in Sarnia, Ontario, near the Michigan border, for the Greater Toronto Area — staying with a billet family in Oakville so he could train at Junxion Performance (which is affiliated with Nesbitt’s agency, Quartexx) Monday through Thursday, before returning home to Sarnia on the weekends. And the skating was an area of emphasis.
Certainly, for a player Nesbitt’s size — and with a fairly recent growth spurt — a big part of that was going to be general, raw strength. It takes more muscle to move around a bigger body. But there were also certain principles Junxion wanted to drill down and emphasize specific to his hockey stride.
“For him, it was really sitting low on a single leg, understanding how to maintain that position,” said Jason Martin, the head performance coach at Junxion. “And then how to use his upper body independent of his lower body. Those were the kind of big ones for us.”
Martin said they work off a spectrum of athletes that range from more innately elastic (such as Connor McDavid) to more muscle-dominant and driven by force production (more akin to Sidney Crosby). For Crosby, that might show up in the explosiveness coming out of a tight turn, or ability to protect the puck, whereas for McDavid, it pops most when he’s at top speed in full flight.
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“And what was crazy about Jack, is, although he’s a tall kid, big feet, big physical features – like he’s going to be a big kid as he fills out — he was actually very elastic for his size, and he was really actually pretty bouncy,” Martin said. “So we kind of leaned a little bit into the strength side for him, the force-production side.”
The goal, basically, was to take the potential that comes with Nesbitt’s frame and add the strength needed to effectively propel it while rounding out the other side of that spectrum.
And there are examples to reinforce what that can look like over time. Detroit Red Wings forward Michael Rasmussen was a big body with some offense in his draft year in 2017, but his main question was his lack of speed at 6-foot-6. This past season, NHL Edge data had Rasmussen in the 94th percentile for top skating speed, at 23.29 mph.
Likewise, in that same draft, Boston’s Morgan Geekie — who Corey Pronman listed as his player comparison for Nesbitt — had some concerns around his skating. This year, NHL Edge data had his top speed in the 84th percentile, in a season in which he had 33 goals and 57 points.
“Obviously with the size, if they have the ability to have some good top-end speed using that elasticity, but also be able to protect the puck and be strong in the corners, that’s a dangerous athlete,” Martin said.
At 18, Nesbitt is still in the early stages of working to make those gains. Martin noted that the summer is only so long, and even working out four days a week, “it’s not actually that many workouts.”
Still, he felt he could see Nesbitt starting to get stronger, and he’s eager to see what the next stage will bring.
“Because year over year at that age, they just develop so quickly,” Martin said. “But I think once his body fills out relative to his height, I think he’s going to be a monster.”
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Martin also emphasized Nesbitt’s character and receptiveness to the work they gave him, calling him “one of the most coachable guys that we’ve had a chance to work with.” For teams betting on his potential, that could be key in believing his ability to reach it.
But while the allure of Nesbitt has a lot to do with those longer-range projections — of what he can be when his body is filled out, and if that skating develops as hoped — there is still already a solid present-day picture.
Walters was in his first year coaching Windsor, so he didn’t have Nesbitt the season prior, but still felt he could see a jump in Nesbitt’s skating from watching him. And from Day 1 when he got there, Walters felt that in Nesbitt he had a player who wouldn’t cheat for offense, playing “extremely tough” with “huge character.” He also emphasized Nesbitt’s willingness to fight if needed, to stick up for his teammates — a bit of a throwback element that also can separate Nesbitt in the modern game.
“I think the biggest thing with Jack is obviously he’s very good away from the puck, and competes extremely hard,” Walters said. “Really good hockey sense. Loves getting to the front of the net. Real good on power play, on top of the blue paint and extremely high hand-eye coordination.”
That should give him a steady floor, knowing he can use his size and smarts to check. And when you combine that with the potential if his feet can catch up to his frame, there’s the recipe for a potentially versatile player who could use his skill, size and toughness to complement offensive players high in a lineup, too.
“Jack is the same regardless,” Bowler said. “Whether Team Canada uses him how they see (fit), how the Windsor Spitfires (use him), this guy knows what his role his, (what) his job is on each and every shift. And he seems to be so consistent and thrive in that, and he doesn’t get caught up in everything else. He just does what’s expected.”
Taken all together, it starts to feel easy to see how Nesbitt went from a “B” prospect entering the season, to Central Scouting’s 15th-ranked North American on their final ranking.
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Now, it’s all about where he goes from here.
“From what I can tell, he’s already a great athlete, even with the growth spurt and trying to find his body,” Martin said. “And he’s such a good mover that once he starts being able to express what his body’s trying to do, meaning he gains the strength and muscle mass and positions that he’s learning, I think kind of sky’s the limit for him. I think he could fit in a lot of different roles.”
(Top photo: Natalie Shaver / OHL Images)
Max Bultman has covered the Red Wings for The Athletic since 2018. He previously was a general assignment writer in Detroit and is a 2017 graduate of the University of Michigan. Follow Max on Twitter @m_bultman
