The Golden Knights need their best players to step up and show out in a pivotal Game 4 that has all of the momentum in Minnesota's favor as Vegas tries to avoid going back home in a 1-3 series hole.
NHL
The Vegas Golden Knights will attempt to even the series, and reclaim home ice, with a Game 4 win in Minnesota.
My Golden Knights vs. Wild predictions see the road team getting the split they’re after, with a pair of top line stars leading the way.
Let’s take a closer look at my April 26 NHL picks.
Minnesota has all the momentum in the series right now but I think Vegas is going to get things back on track in Game 4.
They have more depth up front, a better defense core, Stanley Cup winning pedigree, and I don’t think they’ll be rattled by things not going their way to this point.
Look for the series to be all squared up going back to Vegas.
My Golden Knights vs Wild pick: Vegas Golden Knights moneyline (-140 at BET99)
The Vegas Golden Knights have dropped consecutive games by 5-2 score lines and noticeably struggled to slow Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy all series long.
Even so, there have still been plenty of positives in their game – particularly at five-on-five.
The Golden Knights have out-shot the Minnesota Wild 74-54 during that game state while also holding a decisive edge in the expected goals department. Vegas has generated 7.28 while giving up just 5.7 at the other end, good for a 56.09% xG share.
For context of how impressive that number is, the Hurricanes (55.99 xGF%) and Panthers (55.04 xGF%) led the NHL in that department during the regular season.
The problem, by and large, is that the Golden Knights simply haven’t capitalized on their chances. They have scored on just 5.41% of their shots during five-on-five play and found twine on 4% of their high-danger opportunities.
Vegas scored on 9.03% of their five-on-five shots – and 19.63% of their Grade A looks – during the regular season so their finishing metrics should normalize and improve moving forward.
On the opposite end, the Wild have shot the lights out. They’ve scored on almost 15% of their five-on-five shots in this series.
Unless you believe Adin Hill is suddenly the worst goaltender in the NHL by a country mile, that number should come back down to earth.
When the percentages begin to level out, the team getting more of the shots and chances should have the advantage – and that team is Vegas.
They’re a very talented and experienced team and their best players have yet to really get going. Expect that to change in Game 4.
Vegas Golden Knights moneyline
Mark Stone Over 0.5 points
Jack Eichel Over 0.5 points
Mark Stone leads the entire series in Grade A scoring chances with five. He plays top line minutes, he’s a focal point on the power play, and Bruce Cassidy is ramping up his usage as the series progresses.
Given the role he’s playing, and the fact he’s getting high-danger opportunities, it’s only a matter of time before he finally breaks through and hits the scoresheet. This is an elite two-way winger who averaged more than a point per game in the regular season, after all.
Jack Eichel has not picked up a point this season, which is shocking and unlikely to continue. Only once the entire year did he fail to pick up a point more than two games in a row. He was a model of consistency.
Eichel played nearly 25 minutes in Game 3 and the Golden Knights will no doubt be spoon feeding him ice in Game 4 to try and avoid being put on the brink of elimination.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jack Eichel has five points over his last three games in Minnesota. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Wild.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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