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By Michael Harrison in NHL Hockey
Published:
After winning the first two games of their second-round series with the Florida Panthers, the Toronto Maple Leafs were in the driver’s seat. Florida had other plans, reeling off three straight, but the Leafs staved off elimination with 2-0 victory in Game 6 to force a seventh and deciding affair.
Puck drop for this crucial Game 7 at Scotiabank Place in Toronto, Ontario is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET, with coverage on TNT/truTV/Max in the United States and CBC, along with Sportsnet in Canada. For some intriguing Leafs vs Panthers player props to wager on, Chris Amberley has you covered.
In the Game 7 Panthers vs Maple Leafs odds, Florida is a -135 moneyline favorite to win the series, giving them a 57.45% implied win probability. A $135 bet would profit $100 if they’re victorious. Conversely, a $100 wager on +115 Maple Leafs would return $115.
The SBD formula has the Leafs narrowly pulling off the upset 3.26-3.23, meaning the road squad would cover the puck line, and it would be over the 5-goal total. In the 2025 Stanley Cup odds, Florida’s best price can be found at BetMGM at +545 while Toronto is +950 at BetMGM.
Odds as of May 18, 2025, at Sports Interaction. Check out the top NHL betting apps for Panthers vs Maple Leafs.
After suffering an injury in Game 6, all signs point toward Matthew Knies suiting up for Toronto, while Evan Rodrigues is expected to be back in Florida’s lineup after missing the last two contests.
To say that this is a massive game for the Maple Leafs “core four” would be still be a humongous understatement. After years of playoff failures, Toronto could clinch their first berth in the Eastern Conference Final in 23 years, where they’d face the Carolina Hurricanes, who they last played in 2002. Florida has been in back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, so this is ho-hum, been-there-done-that for them.
Big four for the Leafs in Game 7:
•Auston Matthews: 0 goals, 3 assists in five games
•Mitch Marner: 0 goals, 2 assists in five games
•William Nylander: 2 goals, 4 points in five games
•John Tavares: 1 goal, 1 point in three games
The city of Toronto was set to have a collective meltdown following the 6-1 drubbing by Florida in Game 5, but Toronto reeled fans back in with a solid and effective 2-0 victory in Game 6, where goalie Joseph Woll had a 22-save shutout. Florida is definitely a front runner club, who never lose when they’re ahead after the first and second periods.
The @FlaPanthers, under Paul Maurice, have NEVER LOST A GAME in the playoffs when leading after ANY period.
A perfect 26-0.
What an absolutely absurd stat. I love Florida Panthers hockey. #TimeToHunt
In this series, Florida has been better at scoring goals, and the special teams have been much more efficient than their counterparts. Toronto have been solid at home in the postseason, going 4-and-2, while the Panthers are 4-and-2 on the road in the playoffs, so something will have to give.
Given how Florida has been a juggernaut in the last few postseasons, it’s really hard to go against them. In particular, Toronto is a ghastly 0-and-6 in Game 7s since their last winner-take-all victory in 2004. The Panthers are searching for their straight Game 7 triumph, having done it in 2023 against the Bruins in the first round, and the final game of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final against the Oilers. Florida Head Coach Paul Maurice is 5-and-0 in his playoff career in Game 7s.
Often times in a tight, difficult series, Game 7s are low event contests, as each team clamps down and doesn’t allow a ton of chances. The value on under five goals is +115, which is very intriguing to me. In Games 4 and 6 of this series, it was that tight checking affair I mentioned, as both resulted in 2-0 shutouts. Historically the Leafs “Core Four” have also struggled to score in big moments.
In their Stanley Cup championship season in 2024, the last three series deciding games saw exactly 2-1 scores occur each time for Florida. That’s why I’m aiming at under five goals for this gargantuan battle between Atlantic Division rivals with a +115 payout.
FLA-TOR Prediction:
Sports & Entertainment Writer
Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 19 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.
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