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By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
The Edmonton Oilers face a virtual must-win situation in Game 4 against the Dallas Stars on Wednesday (May. 29). Down 2-1 in the Western Conference Final, Connor McDavid’s team can ill-afford to fall behind 3-1 to arguably the most dominant defensive team in the NHL.
Oddsmakers are giving the Oilers a solid chance of tying up this series, pricing the Oil as -130 home favorites over the Stars in Game 4. NHL player props favor Zach Hyman to get on the scoresheet. The puck will drop at 8:30 pm EST on TNT.
Here is our Stars vs Oilers Game 4 prediction, along with NHL player props to wager on.
The Edmonton Oilers played a solid opening 20 minutes on Monday night, but that was about it as the Stars scored three unanswered goals in the second period to take the lead. A full sixty-minute effort would obviously go a long way in sending this series back to Dallas tied 2-2.
The advanced metrics still show the Oilers with an edge at 5-on-5 in the series, as Edmonton has a 55 CF% at even strength compared to a 45 CF% for Dallas. However, the expected goals are a bit closer, with the Oilers generating a slim 52 xGF%.
Our main concern for Edmonton is goaltending, where Stuart Skinner continues to be inconsistent with a .885 save percentage this postseason. Skinner was burned for four goals on 21 shots in Game 3, including weak positioning on Jason Robertson’s hat-trick marker.
Stuart Skinner will start Game 4. #Oilers pic.twitter.com/4AnZIDwipB
— Tony Brar 🚀 (@TonyBrarOTV) May 28, 2024
Despite speculation about Calvin Pickard potentially replacing Skinner, coach Kris Knoblauch has confirmed Skinner will get the crease in Game 4. On the other side of the ice, Jake Oettinger continues to be excellent for the Stars, boasting a 2.09 GAA and .923 save percentage.
The Stars have now won six straight games as road underdogs, and we can’t help but love their underdog value in the Wednesday NHL odds. Roope Hintz has made a major impact on the top line with Jason Robertson upon returning from injury, and the Stars’ defense is frustrating the Oilers’ top guns.
The Oilers have just one victory in their last six Conference Final contests, and they appear to be running out of steam once again this postseason. McDavid and Draisaitl are bringing it, but the depth isn’t showing up. And with the superior defensive structure in place for Dallas, the Stars are solid value on Wednesday.
The Dallas Stars are +110 road underdogs in the Wednesday NHL odds, which is a 47.6% implied probability of winning. The Oilers come in as the -130 favorites, with a 56.5% implied chance of winning.
As of current publishing, the best price for Dallas is +122 on Caesars Sportsbook. This is great value compared to other sportsbooks, which have Dallas much shorter. Edmonton is priced around -130 at most sportsbooks, although Ceasars is more bullish on the Oil, pricing them at -145.
In terms of over/under, the total number of projected goals is 6, with -125 odds favoring the under. The two teams combined to go over the total for the first time in the series on Monday night. It’s worth noting the “over” is on a 6-1-1 run in Oilers home games.
Odds as of May. 29, 2024. Unlock the Fanatics betting promo for Oilers vs Stars tonight.
In the NHL props market, the three players with the best odds to score are all from the home squad. Zach Hyman has the best odds to light the lamp at +100, followed by Leon Draisaitl (+115) and Connor McDavid (+130).
Player prop odds as of May. 29 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
While Jason Robertson scored thrice in Game 3, we think a different Stars forward holds value to light the lamp in Game 4. Tyler Seguin leads all Stars with 19 shot attempts in the series and is +285 to find twine on Wednesday. That’s a 26% implied probability based on the betting odds.
Seguin is slotted in the right-wing spot of Dallas’ newly formed top line with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. When the latter two played together during the regular season, the Stars controlled 71% of the expected goals.
Seguin has fired 12 shots on goal over the past three games and should take advantage of his spot on the top line. His ice time hasn’t dipped below 17 minutes in four straight contests, so look for him to finish one of the glorious scoring opportunities that will come from playing on this talented, stacked top line.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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