Perhaps the best, narrowest of margin Stanley Cup Final matchup we’ve seen in recent memory has been taken to another level.
After the first blowout in the series with the Panthers winning 6-1 in Game 3, it seemed as if it was destined to go that route again once Florida took a controlling 3-0 lead with less than a minute left in the first period in Game 4.
Then the Oilers showed up.
Edmonton rallied to tie the game at 3-3 late in the second period and even briefly took a 4-3 lead late in the third period. The Oilers seemed as if they were going to win in regulation until Panthers’ Sam Reinhart tied the game at 4-4 with 20 seconds left in regulation to force overtime.
Moments after Panthers’ Sam Bennett hit the crossbar in OT, Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl threw the puck on net, getting a lucky bounce off of a Panthers defender and it going through the legs of Panthers’ goalie Sergei Bobrovsky into the back of the net to give Edmonton the dramatic overtime victory and tying the series at 2-2 in the process.
The Oilers made history, becoming the first team in Stanley Cup Finals history to win a game when trailing 3-0 in the first period. All 37 previous teams that held the multi-goal lead had gone on to win. Edmonton now makes that mark 37-1.
Now back even and the series heading north of the border, can the Oilers win back-to-back games for the first time this series and take a 3-2 series lead, or will the Panthers be one win away from being crowned back-to-back Stanley Cup champions?
Here are the betting odds going into Game 5, including our analysis on the spread, total and moneyline prediction for Game 5 between Panthers and Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final:
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Saturday, June 14:
Outside of the Panthers five goal victory in Game 3, every other game so far in this Stanley Cup Final has been decided by one goal.
This has been arguably one of the closest, evenly-matched Stanley Cup Finals in recent history and of all-time through four games.
Could there be another lopsided victory for one of these teams in this now best-of-three series? It’s possible.
I believe the Oilers will win one of these games by two or more goals, and that’ll come here in this spot back on home ice as Edmonton covers the -1.5 puck line as home favorites at plus money in Game 5.
Prediction: Oilers -1.5 (+190)
For the first time all series, there were no goals scored in the opening minutes of the game.
While the under looked promising early on, the Panthers onslaught late in the first and the Oilers answering back to tie the game at 3-3 ended any chance of the under 6.5 goals coming through in Game 4.
After trying to get cute with the under, I’ve learned my lesson.
Until these two high-flying offenses with some of the best players in the league limit the scoring, the over has to be the play every time, especially when the oddsmakers have the over 6.5 goals at even money (+100).
Furthermore, the over is 9-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the Panthers and Oilers and the two franchises are a combined 15-5 to the over in their last 20 total games.
At some point defense and goaltending might be the main focal point to keep it a low scoring affair but that won’t happen in Game 5 as there will be at least seven total goals scored on Saturday night.
Prediction: Over 6.5 goals (+100)
Words can’t describe how important that Game 4 win in Florida was for the Oilers.
In the history of the Stanley Cup Final, teams that go up 3-1 in the series at home are 6-0 all-time. However, teams that tie the series 2-2 on the road are 6-1 in the history of the Stanley Cup Final.
The OT winner was Draisaitl’s fourth game winning goal in the playoffs, the most overtime goals in a single postseason in NHL history.
With Oilers backup goalie Calvin Pickard replacing starter Stuart Skinner in net during Game 4 and likely for the rest of this series, it’s important to know that the Oilers are now 7-0 when Pickard is in between the pipes in these playoffs, while they’re just 7-6 with Skinner.
Before the series began, I predicted the Oilers would win the Stanley Cup Final in six games. With Edmonton now owning home ice I’m sticking to that script, which means the Oilers will come out on top in Game 5 at home and officially be one win away from their first Stanley Cup in 35 years.
The best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final heads back to Alberta with Game 5 in Edmonton, with puck drop coming shortly after 8 p.m. on Saturday night from Rogers Place.
Watch Panthers vs. Oilers Stanley Cup Final Game 5 live on Sling
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Saturday, June 14
Oilers: -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)
Panthers: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Saturday, June 14
Sam Bennett (Panthers): +150
Connor McDavid (Oilers): +250
Leon Draisaitl (Oilers): +250
Brad Marchand (Panthers): 12/1 (+1200)
Matthew Tkachuk (Panthers): 13/1 (+1300)
Aleksander Barkov (Panthers): 50/1 (+5000)
Sergei Bobrovsky (Panthers): 66/1 (+6600)
Sam Reinhart (Panthers): 125/1 (+12500)
Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers): 150/1 (+15000)
Calvin Pickard (Oilers): 200/1 (+20000)
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