Our NHL betting picks believe Morgan Frost will provide a modicum of offense, but that the total is simply too tall for tonight's Flames-Sabres tilt.
NHL
The Calgary Flames take a dull 5-13-3 record into KeyBank Center and face the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday, November 19.
My top Flames vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks expect a low-scoring affair, but with Calgary center Morgan Frost turning in a solid showing.
Flames vs Sabres Best bet: Under 6.5 (-125)
With the Calgary Flames scoring the fewest goals per game (2.1), it’s a little surprising to see a 6.5 total on the board. The easy answer is that the Buffalo Sabres have allowed the sixth-most goals per game (3.42) and played to the Over in nine of their past 12.
Still, I think there’s value in the Under tonight because there isn’t a head coach in the NHL looking to play a high-event, back-and-forth brand of hockey, so I expect the Sabres to slowly begin to tidy up.
Plus, Buffalo just held the Edmonton Oilers to a single goal on Monday, and the Flames are an ideal opponent to keep the trend going against.
In addition to scoring the fewest goals per game, Calgary also hits the ice at the KeyBank Center tonight with the lowest team shooting percentage at 5-on-5.
A final reason I like the Under in this game is because the Flames have actually been solid at 5-on-5 despite the horrific 5-13-3 record and lack of scoring. Calgary is fourth in Corsi For percentage and sixth in expected goals percentage, it’s just a lack of true scoring talent that’s holding them back.
Otherwise, the Flames are doing a lot of little things right.
Calgary forward Morgan Frost has picked up two or more shots in seven of his past eight games. The Sabres allow the most shots per game and sport a 25th-rank CF% at 5-on-5.
Frost has been on the ice for a respectable 7.98 expected goals per 60 minutes, with the Flames posting a miniscule 7.4 team shooting percentage, so this is an opportunity for puck luck to finally flip in his direction.
The Flames have played to the Under in four of the past six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Sabres.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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