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Last Updated: October 13, 2024 10:30 AM EDT • 3 min 17 sec read.
If you can believe it, the Edmonton Oilers have gotten off to a worse start than last season, when they were outscored 12-4 after two games. They have been outscored 11-2, including a 5-2 setback at home on Saturday to the Chicago Blackhawks.
That may have Edmontonians feeling a vomit-inducing case of déjà vu. 
While nobody will be pressing the panic button in Alberta’s capital after two games, the Stanley Cup odds favorites are suffering from what appears to be a head-ringing Stanley Cup Final hangover. 
Meanwhile, their southern neighbors have won both games to open the campaign. The Calgary Flames are 2-0 after their improbable late comeback victory over the Vancouver Canucks and home-opening 6-3 win over Philadelphia on Saturday. 
Our Flames vs. Oilers prediction looks at whether the goals will continue to pour freely in Edmonton on Sunday while looking at a Connor McDavid prop. 
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Predicting which Oilers team shows up on Sunday is more challenging than accurately guessing the exact temperature in Edmonton on a day three weeks from now.
That, plus the fact that the Oilers are outrageous -275 straight-up favorites, is why I’m veering away from the moneyline. 
There is value in the Flames’ +1.5 puck line, which stands at -105. However, based on recent games and last season’s head-to-head trend, I’m banking on seeing at least seven goals. 
Again, we’re only two games in, so I’ll leave the irrational overreactions to my two-year-old son. While Flames fans will liken Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard‘s first start to a double act most comedians would be proud of, nobody is laughing in Edmonton.
Skinner allowed five goals on 13 shots (.615 save percentage) in the opener against the Winnipeg Jets and was yanked after finishing with a ghastly minus-3.52 goals saved below expected. Pickard played against the Blackhawks and didn’t fare any better, allowing five goals on 20 shots (.750 save percentage). 
The Oilers’ goaltending tandem has allowed 11 goals on 40 shots for a combined .725 save percentage. 
To put things into context, the Oilers lead the league in expected goals percentage (70.04) and are third in expected goals differential (3.05).
Yet, their minus-8.05 goals differential above expected is the league’s worst. 
Dan Vladar should get the nod after Dustin Wolf played on Saturday against Philadelphia. In the opener against Vancouver, Vladar allowed five goals on 24 shots (.792 save percentage), finishing with minus-2.4 goals saved above expected. 
While the 27-year-old netminder has always represented a capable backup, he’s never been able to ascend to the status of a No. 1. And he probably won’t anytime soon with the Flames’ focus on seeing Wolf become the alpha.
Also, the Flames are expected to be one of the worst defensive teams this season, and their first two games featured many reasons why. They’ve allowed eight goals and at one point against the Flyers were being outshot 28-10.  
Nine Flames players have more points than Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. No matter how early, that stat is harder to digest than a whole pack of Calgary Stampede mini donuts.
That could prove troublesome for the Flames as it’s only a matter of time before the dynamic duo lets loose, another solid reason to back the Over. Finally, two of the last three meetings between these provincial rivals had at least seven goals. A $10 winning bet will profit $8.33.
Terms and conditions apply.
NHL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +125 via Betway | Implied probability: 44.44%
I’m going back to the well with McDavid, who hasn’t hit the Over on this prop yet. However, he had three shots against the Blackhawks after failing to register one against the Winnipeg Jets.
Plus, he should be able to find space against an inferior Flames defense in the second game of a back-to-back. 
Flames-Oilers predictions made Sunday at 9 a.m. ET.

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