This isn’t that complicated, folks. I’m not betting against Mahomes in the playoffs. I didn’t in Kansas City’s first 2 games and I’m certainly not doing it now – not in the Super Bowl. Yes, Mahomes has lost once in the biggest game in football – but that was to Tom Brady, the only player who still leads him in the GOAT discussion. Mahomes is otherwise 3-0 and has led his team to each of the past 2 titles. He beat the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 and I have full faith that he will do it again in Super Bowl 59.
Of course, it’s not all about the QB. Defensive coordinator has Steve Spagnuolo has his unit absolutely balling. The high-powered Buffalo Bills could not solve K.C.’s defense when it mattered most, nor could many other teams in crunch time during the regular season. Both timely defense and Mahomes’ clutch gene are big reasons why the Chiefs have won a hard-to-believe 17 consecutive 1-possession games. This may be another close Super Bowl; and if it’s close, you have to like Kansas City down the stretch.
When the moments are most important, Mahomes often takes matters into his own hands. We just saw him keep it 11 times for 43 yards and 2 touchdowns in last week’s thriller against Buffalo. The 3-time Super Bowl MVP did not find the end zone with his feet in last year’s Super Bowl, but he at least gained 66 yards on the ground. In a 2021 Divisional Round win over the Bills, Mahomes rushed for 69 yards and a score. He also had a rushing TD in the 2020 Divisional Round against the Cleveland Browns after scoring himself in each of the last 2 playoff games in 2019 (the AFC Championship against the Tennessee Titans and the Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers).
Meanwhile, Philadelphia was in the bottom half of the NFL this season in quarterback rushing yards allowed, quarterback rushing attempts and quarterback rushing TDs. At long odds, Mahomes has great value to reach paydirt.
Barkley’s over/under is set at 112.5, but I will tease it down to the century mark for a safer play. Even at that number, its addition to the parlay provides a massive boost to the payout. And there is no reason why he can’t get to 100. After all, Barkley’s 3 rushing totals so far during these playoffs are 119, 205 and 118. Dating back to the regular season, the Penn State product has delivered 5 consecutive 100-yard performances (also with efforts of 150 and 167). He has surpassed the 100 mark in a whopping 9 of the last 10 games – a stretch that features a 255-yard outburst at the Los Angeles Rams’ expense in Week 12.
The Chiefs’ run defense is no slouch, but it did get torched by James Cook and the Bills in the AFC title tilt (Cook had 13 carries for 85 yards and Buffalo as a team finished with 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 attempts). Expect another 3-figure effort from Barkley to bring home our Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl Same Game Parlay.
The Utah Hockey Club will be making their first visit to Washington to take on the Capitals. It is a story of 2 different seasons between these 2 teams. The Capitals are in the middle of a Presidents Trophy race, while the Hockey Club is sitting in fourth place in a very top-heavy Central Division. The Capitals were 1 of the 4 teams who did not play on Saturday, so they will be well-rested and have an advantage coming into this game. They come into this one playing some very good hockey, as usual; they are 7-1-2 in their last 10 games and an impressive 17-4-5 on home ice in 2024-25. They played in Utah once already this season and beat the HC in convincing fashion by a score of 6-2. The Caps are the second-highest scoring team in the NHL, averaging 3.56 goals per game. They are going up against a Utah team that averaging about 3 goals against per game and is on a back-to-back.
The Hockey Club averages only 2.78 goals per game, I simply do not think this will be enough to keep up with the Capitals’ 4 solid lines that can all score. With the extra rest and home-ice advantage on their side, I like the Capitals to win comfortably.
Hockey Club vs Capitals prediction: Washington -1.5 (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens meet for a Sunday afternoon battle as part of a 2-game slate in the NHL. These Atlantic Division rivals are playing in their second game in as many nights and will look to earn this important victory before the 4 Nations Faceoff takes place. Here is a Lightning vs Canadiens prediction.
The Canadiens were in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race but have really fell off. They are 1-6-1 in their last 8 games, and even on home ice I don’t see them earning this win. Tampa Bay is a veteran-savvy team that boasts several of the NHL’s elite players and is 4-0-1 in the last 5 overall. Travel shouldn’t bother the Bolts, and they were bested by Montreal not even a month ago — which should increase their hunger to win. The Lightning have too much firepower for the Canadiens to outmatch, as they have scored 20 goals in their strong stretch of hockey. For this Lightning vs Canadiens predictions, I expect Tampa Bay to keep rolling with a victory in the Bell Centre.
Lightning vs Canadiens prediction: Tampa Bay ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable to -180.
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The George Washington Revolutionaries and the St. Bonaventure Bonnies will face off on Sunday for an Atlantic 10 Conference battle. Both teams are middle of the pack Atlantic 10 teams and will likely need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. St. Bonaventure captured attention early in the season when it started 14-1 but has since dropped 6 conference games. My best bet for Sunday’s contest is on the the under.
St. Bonaventure plays at a very slow pace and George Washington has had a bad offense this year. According to KenPom, the Bonnies are ranked #344 in adjusted tempo and #288 in average offensive possession length. Combine that with George Washington’s inefficient offense and I see the under being the play. George Washington’s offense is ranked #332 in three-point percentage, #207 in effective field goal percentage and #197 in adjusted offensive efficiency. St. Bonaventure is ranked in #207 in three-point percentage, so we do not see either team having success from deep. Take the under in this one.
George Washington vs St. Bonaventure prediction: Under 135 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable t0 134.
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It may be Super Bowl Sunday, but we have some college basketball action prior to the big game. Tipping off at noon ET is the rematch between the Xavier Musketeers (14-9) and the Villanova Wildcats (13-10). The Musketeers were victorious at home in the last meeting, stealing the game from Villanova with 45 2nd half points while holding the Wildcats to 31. Since then, Villanova has lost 3 of 5, dropping games to Georgetown, Marquette and Creighton along the way. Meanwhile, Xavier has won 3 of 5 since the win over Villanova, beating Marquette, UConn and Georgetown while losing to St. John’s in overtime and Creighton on the road.
Despite a total of 147, the first matchup between Xavier and Villanova landed on 132 points. As a result, oddsmakers adjusted the total down by about 2 possessions, and I still don’t think it’s enough – especially because this game is being played at the Wells Fargo Center and not on Villanova’s campus. Xavier and Villanova shot the ball pretty well from distance in the first meeting, but I’m expecting that to regress in an NBA arena with different sight lines. Both offenses have really struggled of late – sitting in the 36th percentile or worse in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics). Furthermore, Villanova has underperformed offensive expectations in 6 straight games, scoring more than 65 points just twice in that span. Those offensive struggles are likely to continue against the Xavier front court, as Zach Freemantle and Dailyn Swain are 2 of the better defenders in the Big East. In fact, Xavier is 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month (Bart Torvik), out-performing defensive expectations in 5 of its last 7. This one feels like a potential rock fight, so I lean to the Under.
Xavier vs Villanova prediction: Under 141.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 139.5.
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Memphis has won 9 of its last 10 games and its 1 loss during this stretch has come against…you guessed it…Temple back on January 16 via an 88-81 decision. The Tigers are going to be out for revenge Sunday afternoon and they plan on making a statement in front of their home crowd that they deserve to be the #17 team in the nation. Temple’s defense has been a mess as of late, plus its last 3 games all went to overtime. As such, I think Temple will be exhausted heading into this game — which will give Memphis an early advantage in Sunday’s matchup.
PJ Haggerty has been a huge part of the Tigers’ offense, averaging 21.7 points per game this season. He is followed by Tyrese Hunter (14.5 ppg). Temple is giving up 77.9 points per game and the Tigers are averaging 79 points per game. Even though Memphis has had some close games this season, I do think the Tigers will find their groove early on in this matchup. Temple hasn’t played much of a defense in the past 3games and I don’t think it can slow down Haggerty and the rest of the Memphis team. I think Memphis will find a way to cruise to victory and cover the spread.
Temple vs Memphis prediction: Memphis -13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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