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By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
The Dallas Stars are favored to bounce back in their Western Conference Final playoff series with the Edmonton Oilers on Friday night. Pete DeBoer’s team is a -130 favorite for Game 5 on Friday, May 31 at American Airlines Center. The puck drops at 8:30 pm ET on TNT.
The series is tied 2-2 after the Oilers stunned the Stars on Tuesday with a convincing 5-2 victory. To make matters worse for the team from Texas, valuable blueliner Chris Tanev suffered an injury and is listed as questionable to play.
Here is our Oilers vs Stars Game 5 prediction, along with betting odds and player props recommendations.
Oilers vs Stars has been one of the more unpredictable NHL Playoff series in recent memory, with momentum switching on a nightly basis. The Stars appeared on the verge of pushing the Oilers to the brink of elimination in Game 4, only for the Oilers to rally from 2-0 down to even the series 2-2.
Given how different each game has played out, we can’t be overly confident that each team’s play from Game 4 will carry over to Game 5. Aside from the hot start, Tuesday was one of the Stars’ worst performances of the postseason, as they managed just one high-danger chance at five-on-five (per Natural Stat Trick).
While the “over” hit in both games played in Edmonton, we’re betting on the two teams to play a lower-scoring affair on Friday. The “under” hit in each of the previous two meetings played in Dallas, plus has cashed in six of the seven games following a loss.
We expect the Stars to clamp down defensively on Friday night, aiming to keep Connor McDavid and company on the outside. Goalie Jake Oettinger should also be sharper, as he boasts a .950 save percentage in games following a loss this postseason.
The under is an ugly play following a game that just produced seven goals, but it’s the smart bet based on the metrics. Even going back over the past several seasons, the under has been profitable in seven of Edmonton’s last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas.
With Stuart Skinner regaining some confidence and Oettinger poised for a bounce-back showing, this game should be low-scoring as both teams try to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination.
Game 5 Pick
Odds as of May. 31, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Check out the Bet365 promotions for the NHL Playoffs.
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Dallas is a -130 favorite in the Game 5 NHL odds, while Edmonton is the +110 underdog. These betting odds imply a 56.52% chance of the Stars emerging victorious and a 43.48% chance of the Oilers pulling an upset.
Based on Corsi and expected goals, the Oilers have been the better five-on-five team in the series. The Oilers have a 55 CF% in the series along with a .53 XGF%. However, no team has been able to make an impact with their power play, with the Oilers going 0-for-6 and the Stars going 0-for-9.
"We would like the same standard."
Kris Knoblauch discusses the lack of penalties called on the Oilers so far. pic.twitter.com/1IZjXpXeAE
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 26, 2024
The Oilers’ puck line could be a decent addition to your same-game parlay tonight given the possession edge. But why are the Stars still favored? The goalie matchup is clearly a primary factor, with Oettinger (.919 sv%) simply more reliable than Skinner (.887 sv%) despite Tuesday’s result.
The over/under is priced at six goals, with juice towards the under. FanDuel currently has this line at 5.5. The best odds you can get for the under is -120 on BetMGM, Bet365, and Caesars. Books such as DraftKings have this line as short as -135, so make sure to shop around and find the best price.
2024 NHL Playoff Bracket: Seedings, Round 1 Matchups & Schedule
NHL player props have been released for Oilers vs Stars Game 6 tonight, with Zach Hyman sporting the best odds to light the lamp at +100.
Here are a few player props we’ve locked in for Oilers vs Stars Game 6 tonight:
Jamie Benn Over 0.5 Points (-115)
Benn has been on a tear, registering at least one point in five straight games dating back to last series. The Stars captain has really elevated his play with nine points in eight home games this postseason.
With Benn playing inspired hockey and looking to lead his team to within one win of the Stanley Cup Final, I like his chances of getting on the scoresheet again tonight.
Joe Pavelski Over 0.5 Points (+120)
The veteran Pavelski has 14 points in 17 playoff games to rank 3rd on the Stars in scoring. He’s a savvy player who finds a way to contribute in big moments. Getting plus odds on Pavelski to record a point tonight is appealing
The biggest injury that could potentially impact the Oilers vs Stars betting line is the ankle injury to Stars’ defender Chris Tanev. The veteran rearguard left Tuesday’s game after blocking a shot from Evander Kane. He was unable to return to the game due to a lower-body injury.
Chris Tanev in his walking boot #nhl @nhl #dallasstars #edmontonoilers #nhlplayoffs #tanev pic.twitter.com/BVCW4fOFwN
— Mason Katcherin (@MKatcherin) May 30, 2024
Stars coach Pete DeBoer says he is hopeful that Tanev will be available for Game 5, although the d-man’s injury status is uncertain. It’s not encouraging Tanev was spotted in a walking boot following the game. The 28-year-old has been an essential piece for the Stars in this postseason, averaging 23:26 of ice time and blocking 65 shots.
Outside of Tanev, there are no major injuries to report for either team. Roope Hintz returned for Dallas in Game 3 and made an immediate impact, although he was much quieter in Game 4.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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