Edmonton’s speed, Ekholm’s return, Florida’s high-danger prowess can decide championship rematch
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NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide five advanced stats insights that could decide the 2025 Stanley Cup Final between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers.
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The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers will meet again in the 2025 Stanley Cup Final after their epic seven-game series last postseason, and the rematch could come down to some key underlying stats.
The Panthers look to become the third repeat Stanley Cup champion since 2000 (others: Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016, 2017; Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020, 2021), while reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Connor McDavid looks to win his first Stanley Cup championship and the first for a Canadian NHL team since 1993. The Oilers are only the fourth team since 1980 to return to the Cup Final after losing in the final round during the prior postseason (other three teams all won championship in the returning year: Panthers in 2024; Penguins in 2009; Oilers in 1984).
Here are five advanced metrics that could decide the 2025 Stanley Cup Final:
McDavid has the fastest max skating speed (23.92 miles per hour against Los Angeles Kings in Game 2 of first round) of any player and by far the most 20-plus mph speed bursts (134; 49 more than any other skater) this postseason. In the conference finals, McDavid led the League with 43 bursts of at least 20 mph (25 more than any other player). But McDavid will match up again with Panthers center Aleksander Barkov, who helped them hold McDavid without a point in Games 6 and 7 during the 2024 Cup Final.
The Oilers have other speedy forwards in Leon Draisaitl (60 speed bursts of 20-plus mph; fourth in NHL), Vasily Podkolzin (48; fifth), Connor Brown (38; ninth) and Viktor Arvidsson (max skating speed of 23.90 mph; second behind McDavid). Despite Florida playing one more playoff game than Edmonton, the Oilers are way ahead in 20-plus mph bursts (498; first in NHL) compared to the Panthers (342; third). That said, the Panthers have the most 20-plus mph speed bursts by defensemen (84; Edmonton has 55), led by Niko Mikkola (26; first at position) and Gustav Forsling (18; third among D-men).
The Panthers lead the NHL in high-danger goals (39) and high-danger shooting percentage (31.7) this postseason. But Edmonton leads the League in high-danger shots on goal (146; Florida has 123) during the playoffs. Oilers veteran forward Corey Perry scored his NHL-leading sixth high-danger goal this postseason in their series-clinching win against the Dallas Stars in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final. Panthers teammates Sam Bennett and Anton Lundell (five each) are tied for second in the category.
The biggest injury absence entering this series rematch is Oilers wing Zach Hyman (upper-body injury that required surgery), who ranked highly this postseason in high-danger goals (four; tied for fifth) and high-danger shots on goal (16; tied for seventh) and was second in the NHL during the regular season in high-danger SOG (125).
Although the Panthers-Oilers 2024 Cup Final series featured a low-scoring Game 7 (2-1 win for Florida) and saw four of the games have totals of six or fewer goals, there were topsy-turvy moments in that series, especially as Edmonton rallied from down 3-0 to force Game 7.
Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner who backstopped their first championship, had a .899 save percentage in seven games during the 2024 Cup Final and allowed three or more goals in each outing from Games 3-6. Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner, meanwhile, had a .909 save percentage over those seven Cup Final games. Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 24 shots faced in Game 7, while Skinner stopped 19 of 21 in the narrow loss.
This postseason, Bobrovsky and Skinner are tied with each other for the NHL lead in shutouts (three each). Bobrovsky ranks second in high-danger saves this postseason (87) behind Stars goalie Jake Oettinger (110). Skinner, meanwhile, has shown drastic improvement in high-danger save percentage over his past seven playoff games (.919) compared to his first three games (.625).
Oilers backup Calvin Pickard, who has not played since Game 2 against the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round because of injury, has a better high-danger save percentage (.816) this postseason than both Bobrovsky (.813) and Skinner (.803).
FLA@CAR, Gm2: Bobrovsky earns his sixth NHL playoff shutout
The Oilers saw their most well-rounded defenseman, Mattias Ekholm, make his postseason debut in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final. Ekholm had one assist and played 15:52 in his return and could be a huge X-factor in the Cup Final rematch against the Panthers.
Ekholm ranked third among NHL defensemen in even-strength offensive zone time percentage (47.5) during this regular season and is frequently paired with Evan Bouchard, who leads the position in points (17 in 16 games) this postseason despite Ekholm’s absence.
While Bouchard also leads NHL defensemen in 90-plus mph shots this postseason (15), he was held without a goal during the 2024 Cup Final (had five assists in seven games). The Oilers are tasked with trying to generate more offense from the blue line against the Panthers, who have the most goals scored by defensemen this postseason (15). Defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who leads Florida in playoff points among defensemen (11 in 13 games), leads remaining players in even-strength offensive zone time percentage (47.0) during the playoffs.
The Oilers are much-improved at 5-on-5 compared to previous postseasons (42-26; plus-16), but the Panthers may be even deeper and have a slightly better 5-on-5 goal differential (47-28; plus-19). While Edmonton has the leading 5-on-5 point producer (McDavid: 16) this postseason, Florida has three of the top six in the category (Brad Marchand, Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell have 12 each; tied with Draisaitl for third).
Panthers center Sam Bennett, who leads the NHL in goals (10) this postseason, is also tied for the most even-strength goals (seven) playing on the second line with Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe.
FLA@CAR, Gm2: Bennett tips in PPG to add to Panthers’ lead
Florida also recently promoted forward Evan Rodrigues to the top line with Barkov and Sam Reinhart, and Rodrigues finished the Eastern Conference Final tied with Bennett, Tkachuk and Barkov for the Panthers’ points lead (each had seven in five games). Rodrigues, who led Florida in points (seven in seven games) during the 2024 Cup Final and quietly had the most goals (four) in that entire series, was an advanced stats standout during that postseason:
• Top skating speed: 22.75 mph (90th percentile)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 38 (91st percentile)
• Total skating distance: 58.37 miles (94th percentile)
• High-danger goals: 4 (92nd percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 18 (95th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 3 (96th percentile)
• Even-strength offensive zone time percentage: 44.7 (90th percentile)
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EDGE stats team comparison: Oilers vs. Panthers
FLA vs. EDM
FLA vs. CAR | EDM vs. DAL
FLA vs. TOR | CAR vs. WSH | DAL vs. WPG | EDM vs. VGK
OTT vs. TOR | FLA vs. TBL | MTL vs. WSH | NJD vs. CAR
STL vs. WPG | COL vs. DAL | MIN vs. VGK | EDM vs. LAK

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