Veteran forward could debut with new team Friday, excels in high-danger shots on goal
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NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at the advanced stats surrounding forward Brad Marchand ahead of his upcoming Florida Panthers debut.
The Florida Panthers acquired Brad Marchand from the Boston Bruins on March 7, boosting their chances of repeating as Stanley Cup champions.
Marchand could make his Panthers debut against the Utah Hockey Club on Friday, and, looking ahead to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, could give them a formidable second line if he and Matthew Tkachuk are healthy and playing on a unit with center Sam Bennett.
Marchand, who will turn 37 years old on May 11, can become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Among active NHL players, Marchand ranks ninth in career regular-season goals (422) and fourth in career playoff goals (56).
Per NHL EDGE stats, the Panthers are the only NHL team to rank in or tied for the top five for both high-danger shots on goal (581; tied for fourth) and midrange SOG (585; tied for fifth) and will now incorporate Marchand, who ranks in the 94th percentile among forwards in high-danger SOG (66) and also highly in midrange goals (six; 81st percentile) and shots on goal (50; 85th percentile) despite being limited to 61 games this season (hasn’t played since March 1).
Florida has won nine of its 14 games (9-5-0) since the 4 Nations Face-Off despite Tkachuk sustaining a groin injury during the best-on-best tournament and expected to remain out for an extended time. Per NHL EDGE stats, Tkachuk ranks highly among forwards in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (47.5 percent; 97th percentile), high-danger goals (13; 89th percentile) and high-danger shots on goal (52; 85th percentile).
The Panthers’ supporting cast, even without Tkachuk for the time being, is a big upgrade around Marchand compared to in Boston, where he was playing mostly on a separate line from elite right wing David Pastrnak this season. Marchand, despite his strong high-danger shots on goal volume, was held to nine high-danger goals with the Bruins this season (75th percentile), giving him a high-danger shooting percentage (13.6) well below the NHL average (20.1) and his rate from last season (26.2; his 16 high-danger goals ranked in the 90th percentile).
Marchand has been practicing on a line with Bennett and rookie standout Mackie Samoskevich, who has been productive since the 4 Nations Face-Off break with nine points in his past 14 games (five goals, four assists) and five power-play points (one off NHL rookie lead of six over that span). The Panthers, as a team, rank second in the League in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (54.7; behind Carolina Hurricanes’ 58.7) and tied for second in shots on goal differential (plus-5.0; behind Hurricanes’ plus-6.7).
With Tkachuk still out and Marchand set to debut with the Panthers soon, the latter should factor into their first power-play unit down the stretch of the season. Despite missing time this season, Marchand ranks in the 84th percentile in power-play skating distance (24.43 miles) and, since 2016-17, ranks 12th in the NHL in power-play points (222). Over the past two seasons combined, the Panthers rank fourth in power-play goals (114).
The Marchand trade wasn’t the only big trade by Florida this season; the Panthers acquired defenseman Seth Jones from the Chicago Blackhawks on March 1. Florida has recently been playing without Aaron Ekblad, who was suspended 20 games for violating terms of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program on March 10.
Marchand can lend a helping hand to the penalty kill as well; he leads active NHL players in career shorthanded goals (36; tied for eighth in history), and the Panthers already rank second in shorthanded goals (12) this season behind the New York Rangers (14). Since Jan. 1, the Panthers are allowing the fewest goals per game (2.24), and workhorse starter Sergei Bobrovsky ranks among the League leaders in wins (30 in 47 games; fifth) and shutouts (five; tied for second) this season.
The addition of Marchand’s physicality, goal-scoring ability and championship pedigree (won Stanley Cup with Bruins in 2011), along with the potential returns of Tkachuk and Ekblad in the playoffs, give the Panthers a chance to make the Stanley Cup Final for the third straight season. And the fact that the Panthers defeated the Bruins in each of the past two postseasons adds to the intrigue of them landing Boston’s former captain to their already strong core.
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More: NHL EDGE stats on Marchand
