Florida dominating high-danger areas; Bobrovsky building Conn Smythe case
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NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide three advanced stats insights on the Eastern Conference Final series between the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers.
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The defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers have a 2-0 series lead over the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final after a 5-0 road win in Game 2, and their advanced stats support their commanding advantage so far.
The Panthers are now 7-2 on the road this postseason after goalie Sergei Bobrovsky‘s 17-save shutout, outscoring opponents 43-18 in those games. Florida has outscored opponents 22-4 over its past four road games and 10-2 in this series after winning both games in Carolina. The Panthers, who swept the Hurricanes in the 2023 Eastern Conference Final, have outscored them 6-1 at 5-on-5 in the series and are 4-for-5 on the power play; Carolina, meanwhile, is 1-for-7 with the man advantage.
Here are three key advanced stats insights from the Hurricanes-Panthers series so far:
Four of Florida’s five goals in Game 2 were high-danger goals, and seven of its 10 in the series have been from those areas. The Panthers lead the NHL this postseason in both high-danger goals (30) and high-danger shooting percentage (32.3). Four Panthers forwards are among the NHL leaders in high-danger goals: Sam Bennett, Eetu Luostarinen, Carter Verhaeghe and Anton Lundell are tied with each other for second in the League (four each) behind Matthew Knies of the Toronto Maple Leafs (five). Bennett leads Florida in high-danger shots on goal this playoffs (14; tied for sixth in NHL).
Hurricanes goalie Frederik Andersen, who led the NHL in high-danger save percentage entering the series (.923), has fallen out of the top spot after allowing six high-danger goals on 10 high-danger shots faced through two games against the Panthers. Dallas Stars goalie Jake Oettinger (.849 high-danger save percentage) now leads the category over Andersen (.839).
It’s worth noting Florida forward Sam Reinhart, its leading goal scorer from the regular season (39), left Game 2 with lower-body injury. Reinhart is another Panthers player with multiple high-danger goals during the playoffs (two).
The Panthers goalie is now 10-4 in 14 games this postseason with three shutouts, matching his career total entering this postseason (three in prior 94 playoff games). He’s building a case to win the Conn Smythe Trophy (most valuable player of playoffs) if Florida wins the Stanley Cup again.
Per NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, Bobrovsky has excelled against opponent shots on goal attempted off the cycle (offensive zone save percentage; excludes inferenced shot attempts coming within five seconds of crossing the opposing blue line). Bobrovsky has a .971 save percentage off the cycle in the Eastern Conference Final and leads the entire NHL in save percentage against those shot types (.920) for the entire postseason.
Bobrovsky is by far the NHL goalie leader in goal differential (plus-24) this postseason. Since the start of the second round, Bobrovsky leads the League in high-danger saves (52 in nine games). In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage, the Hurricanes (53.8) are leading the Panthers (46.2) through two games, but their 5-on-5 shooting percentage plus save percentage (85.0; worst of four conference finalists) must improve as the series shifts to Florida.
FLA@CAR, Gm2: Bobrovsky earns his sixth NHL playoff shutout
The Panthers lead the NHL in goals by defensemen this postseason (13) after Gustav Forsling scored 1:17 into the first period of Game 2. Florida now has at least one goal from seven different defensemen during the playoffs, which matches the NHL record for most by one team in a single postseason (tied with six other teams, including Vegas Golden Knights in 2021).
The Panthers’ leading playoff goal scorers among defensemen are Aaron Ekblad, Seth Jones and Nate Schmidt (three each), and they lead the NHL in long-range goals (five) this postseason. Florida also has two high-danger goals from defensemen during the playoffs (one by Ekblad, one by Schmidt).
Ekblad, who had two assists in Game 2, now has nine points (three goals, six assists) in 10 playoff games and ranks second in the entire NHL in even-strength offensive zone time percentage (49.4; behind Shayne Gostisbehere’s 49.7) this postseason.
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EDGE stats team comparison: CAR vs. FLA
Read more: Western Conference Final insights
FLA vs. CAR | EDM vs. DAL
FLA vs. TOR | CAR vs. WSH | DAL vs. WPG | EDM vs. VGK
OTT vs. TOR | FLA vs. TBL | MTL vs. WSH | NJD vs. CAR
STL vs. WPG | COL vs. DAL | MIN vs. VGK | EDM vs. LAK
