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Last Updated: October 18, 2024 10:20 AM EDT • 3 min 28 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
If you’re keen on watching a game of pond hockey with woeful goaltending and scoring chances galore, tune into a Colorado Avalanche contest.
While still among the Stanley Cup odds favorites, the Avalanche have endured a horrid start to their season, losing four in a row and conceding no fewer than five goals. They’ve allowed 25 goals, a league-worst 6.25 against per outing.
It’s their worst start to a season since 2014-15 when they lost six of their first seven games. The Avs are joined by the Nashville Predators as the only teams that still haven’t registered a point.
Colorado looks to get off the snide on Friday when it hosts the Anaheim Ducks, who’ve looked pretty good in their first three games. Anaheim is 2-1 after beating Utah Hockey Club 5-4 in overtime on Wednesday.
Our Ducks vs. Avalanche prediction expects Colorado to finally get in the win column while offering a Mikko Rantanen player prop.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -110 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Despite their woeful start, the Avalanche are the prohibitive favorites entering Friday’s tilt.
At -250, there’s no value in taking the Avalanche on the moneyline. Even backing them to win in regulation on the three-way moneyline yields minimal potential returns, with those odds at -160.
The Over 6.5 goals market has appeal, but Betway isn’t offering that total; 5.5 and 7.5 are the available totals.
So, I’ve decided to lock in the Avs on the puck line, expecting them to finally show a semblence of defensive prowess and win by at least two goals.
Let’s start on the optimistic side of the ledger. The Avalanche have scored at least four goals in three of their first four games. They have the fourth-best expected goals percentage (57.66), the fourth-best Corsi rating (55.53%), and the fourth-best expected goals differential.
Cale Makar has eight points in four games, while Nathan MacKinnon and Rantanen have seven.
The team’s collective shooting percentage (6.38), however, has let them down. That’s the sixth-worst efficiency rate for shots on goal, according to MoneyPuck.com.
The Avs are playing poorly defensively; there’s no question about that. However, they’ve conceded only six high-danger shots, which is tied for the fourth-fewest.
If you’re looking to place blame, point your index finger directly at Alexandar Georgiev and, to a much lesser extent, Justus Annunen.
Through three games, Georgiev has the worst goals saved above expected (minus-9.5), and it’s not even close. Stuart Skinner is second at minus-3.9. The starting netminders for Friday’s game haven’t been confirmed, but I don’t think it matters too much where Colorado is concerned.
Annunen allowed 2.6 goals more than expected in his only start.
While those stats make for ugly reading, Colorado needs to win this game. The Avs are playing at home against a team expected to miss the playoffs for the seventh straight season.
Meanwhile, the Avs remain among those expected to challenge for the Stanley Cup.
Georgiev isn’t an elite goaltender. That much has been clear for as long as I can recall. But he’s better than what he’s shown in the season’s early stages. And unless he wakes up from his deep, comatose state, the Avs’ season could unravel quickly.
I expect whoever starts in goal to be better than they have been (which isn’t expecting much) and for the collective to offer more defensive support. Not only do the Avs need to save face, but they must find a way to stop the rot.
NHL picks made Friday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -105 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.22%
Rantanen and MacKinnon are tied for second on the Avs with seven points. However, MacKinnon’s price for notching at least two points is -175, which is far too expensive.
Rantanen already has two three-point games, including the last time out against Boston. He’s playing with bundles of confidence and should be ready to add to his tally against the Ducks, who allowed four against Utah Hockey Club on Wednesday.
He had an expected goals percentage of 69.24 against Boston, while his line, consisting of MacKinnon and Colton, had a Corsi rating of 75%. I expect that dominance to continue against an inferior defensive team.
A winning $10 bet will profit $9.52.
Ducks-Avalanche predictions made Friday at 9 a.m. ET.
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