ST. LOUIS — Brayden Schenn wanted to make one thing clear: he’s not against analytics.
But the St. Louis Blues captain, despite a lot of numbers saying that they should be better than the 4-7-2 record they have, feels there’s more to winning and losing than just the data.
“I’m not saying analytics are nothing,” Schenn said prior to a 3-2 win against the Edmonton Oilers on Monday that snapped a seven-game losing skid (0-5-2). “There’s so much … I believe in analytics. Maybe I didn’t say that right. I would say there’s so much that goes into it. There’s analytics, there’s confidence, there’s feel, there’s a lot of things that kind of go into winning a hockey game. You can’t just base it all off numbers right? But at the end of the day, we do feel like we’re playing in stretches. I’m not saying we should be 10-2 right now, but we don’t feel like we should be 3-7. In saying that, we do know we have to play better. We still feel like we have a whole lot in this room and whatever the numbers are saying, that’s great, but we still individually we have a whole lot more.”
There is plenty of data backing up the Blues are better than their record. Let’s take a look.
In the previous three seasons, the Blues have climbed in the goal vs. expected goal per game category, going from getting out-chanced and outscored in 2022-23 and 2023-24 to out-chancing and outscoring opponents last season. It’s no wonder they reached the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time in three years. But this year, it’s been a great dip in terms of they’re out-chancing opponents but getting outscored. Nobody is having the rotten luck, or lack of finishing ability — however one wants to look at it — quite like the Blues.
Want more? How about the Blues being eighth in the league in 5v5 expected goals percentage:
They’re 10th in 5v5 expected goals per 60 minutes:
And how about being sixth in 5v5 expected goals-against per 60:
That’s why it all adds up to being last in the league in goal differential above expected:
The Blues are up there, too, in 5v5 goal vs. expected goal share where they’re outchancing opponents but getting outscored in percentage terms:
So by looking at this data, how are the Blues 13 games into the season with just 10 points?
Probably feels crazy to think that they are where they are. But they feel if they continue doing what they’re doing, things will eventually change.
“I think if you continue to play better and you believe in a process, results take care of itself,” Blues coach Jim Monrtgomery said before the Edmonton win. “I think the last two games have been for the majority of it, outside of some game management issues against Vancouver, they’ve been really good games. There’s different analytics you can look at and things will go our way, and when they do, the way we’re playing, expected-for goals and against, they tell a true story that doesn’t match up the eye in the standings.”
However at some point, the rewards need to match up with the data, and they hadn’t until Monday’s game. Schenn explained why.
“Yeah, it’s eye test and it’s feel,” he said. “We know when we’re playing good, we know when we’ve had good shifts or good periods or momentum swings. Feel’s a lot of it. Feel’s 95 percent mental feeling good getting yourself getting ready to play, getting yourself feeling good, the team feeling good. Usually when that happens, you’re getting wins and your analytics or whatever you want to talk about will take over itself. First and foremost, you have to get yourself feeling confident and in the right direction.
“To be honest, I don’t know enough about analytics or analytical numbers, but from what coaches are seeing, to answer your question, from what they say, yes. But at the end of the day, it’s sports, and it’s results, and at the end of the day, that’s how you base … numbers are numbers. That’s why I don’t feel hockey is totally an analytical sport. It’s actually known at times, yes, but hockey’s based on big moments, momentum swings, guys stepping up at key times, and numbers are numbers. Everyone gets caught in numbers these days, but I don’t feel hockey is more analytics like other sports are.”
Have some other numbers caused some of the above numbers to falter? Well, goaltending has something to do with it:
So does special teams play:
Sure does help understand why the goals scored above expected was 19th in the league coming into this week:
“For us players, we obviously look at analytics, but it’s more of a feel thing,” Blues center Robert Thomas said. “Obviously I haven’t been in the games lately, but just from being around the room the last couple days, you can kind of feel that guys feel we should be doing better than we are. That’s the positive thing where we feel like we’re building a game, building our team game. You can see that coming into play; you just haven’t seen the results yet. If you continue to build your game, the results will come eventually. That’s why I’m excited to come back and hopefully help our team get a big win.”
And he did with a goal and an assist. Now it’s up to the Blues to start piling up some wins consecutively.
“We’re playing better. We’re playing better,” Schenn said. “You sure hope you’re at the back end of it because this has obviously been a tough start, but at the end of the day, it’s a long season yet and we have to find a way to get one win just to grind through it here and get us a little confidence, momentum heading into the next game.”
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